sep 9 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 901.28, closing at 907.89.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and we are waiting for confirmation that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 860.31 low. Wave -ii- looks to have become a complex double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on the Daily CNDX Chart.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- at the current low of 860.31.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9gdxd.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 31.87, closing at 32.19.

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave *ii* is the 30.64 low, and we are still a bit above our 50% retracement level for all of wave *ii* also.

 

We will still give this market more time before we decide whether the 30.68 low was the final conclusion of all of *ii*.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally higher in wave *iii*, and we will provide our initial endpoint for its completion when we believe all of wave *ii* is complete. 

 

Our next challenge will be the red downtrend line connecting 39.88 and 35.82, which is shown on our Daily GDX Chart. A break and close above that line will confirm to us that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 30.68 low.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX in the coming days.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1783.10.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1803.20!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

After wave .d. ends we expect another drop in wave .e. to complete all of this large wave .iv. bullish triangle.

 

Next major resistance is still the 1835.00/1840.00 level, which we have failed to close above so far.

                                 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 23.94.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 24.35!

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are still working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is now expanding and extending, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Within the wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 low. We are now rallying in wave -d- that can go as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35. As a minimum wave -d- should reach our upper red trendline which currently sits at the 27.50 level.

 

Next resistance is our purple downtrend line that is shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521bond.png  

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 1.316%!

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

It looks like from the 1.128% low to the recent high of 1.385% we now have a double 3 wave rally formation in place which is bearish and this is suggesting that we will be falling back to at least the 1.128% level again before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9sp120.png  

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching low of 4493.95. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 3 points.

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

So within wave .v. of -v- of (iii), we think wave $i$ ended at 4397.68 and all of wave $ii$ at 4233.37. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 4777.45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 92.86.

 

After that high was made we moved lower and that that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 92.46!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is now expanding and extending and it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* is now complete at the 93.75 high.

 

We should be now falling in wave $d$, as shown on our Daily USDX Chart. Wave $d$ cannot drop below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ew2021sep9oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 69.84!

 

We continue to work on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart, as it is expanding and extending now. Within wave (iv), wave $b$ high ended at 76.98 and all of a complex wave $c$ at the 61.74 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave $d$, which may now be complete at the 70.61 high. If that is the case then we are now falling in wave $e$. Wave $d$ could also become more complex, as it can rally all the way to the wave $b$ high of 76.98.

                                                                                                           

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 16.91, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew