aug 10 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 915.64, closing at 917.99.

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and all of wave -ii- at the 868.40 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1593.60.

 

On the Intraday Chart we completed a 3 wave corrective pattern from 913.58 to 892.89, and are now moving higher. We also traded above the 918.87 low, which confirmed to us that all of wave -ii- ended at the 868.40 low.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to still be rallying in an incomplete impulsive sequence out of the 868.40 low, so we should still see higher prices in the days ahead, before we get a more meaningful correction.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 32.39, closing at 33.43.

 

It now looks like wave ^ii^ has become more complex and is still underway and hit our last retracement level which is :

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level so if our current count is to remain valid we need to turn higher now, otherwise we cannot rule the possibility that wave *ii* may still be underway and in that case we are heading back to the 30.64 low.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1725.10. In the overnight we moved sideways, currently trading at the 1730.40 level.

 

As you can see on our updated Daily Gold Chart, our large wave .iv. of -iii- bullish triangle is now expanding and extending.

 

Within that triangle we are working on a complex wave *c*, which reached a low of 1675.90 in the panic crash on last Sunday night.

 

Our minimum target for completion of wave *c* is actually 1673.30, the low of the first corrective pattern within wave *c*.

 

Considering the selloff occurred during the low volume electronic session it could be possible that all of wave *c* is complete as a failure low at the 1675.90 low.

 

However we cannot rule out the possibility that gold is going to drop one more time to reach at least of 1673.30 low before all of wave *c* ends.

 

We also have a projection for the end of wave *c* as:

 

^c^ = ^a^ = 1668.40.

 

After wave *c* ends we expect a choppy rally higher in wave *d* as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session reaching a low of 23.22.

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are still working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is now expanding and extending, as shown on our updated Daily Silver Chart.

 

Within the wave (iv) bullish triangle we probably completed all of wave -c- at the 22.28 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to rally higher in wave -d-.

 

We have a projection for the end of wave -c- as:

 

*c* = *a* = 22.15.

 

Our current triangle formation will be eliminated if silver continues to fall and breaks the wave -a- low of 21.81.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached ahigh of 1.324%!

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our upper retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*. After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4424.74. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are almost unchanged.

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts.

 

Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

So within wave .v. of -v- of (iii), we think wave $i$ ended at 4397.68 and all of wave $ii$ at 4233.37. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 4777.45

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 93.11!

 

We are still assuming that ending diagonal triangle formation is complete at the 93.20 high and so is our large wave *iv* bearish triangle formation. We are now heading lower in wave *v* of -iii-.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

The other option that that this bearish triangle is expanding and extending and if that is the case then we should keep rallying to the 93.47 high to complete all of wave $c$ of *iv*.  

                                                                                                                 

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.21.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.21! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1021oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 68.05!

 

We continue to work on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart, although it is likely expanding and extending now.

 

Within wave (iv) we now that that the current drop from the wave $b$ high of 76.98 is still a complex wave $c$. After wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally to be followed by an wave $e$ drop to complete the entire wave (iv) bullish triangle. 

                                                                                                               

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 18.99, which is still above our 50% retracement level, so we suspect that all of wave (ii) may not be complete at that low.

After wave (ii) ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave (iii), and we will provide our initial projection for its completion when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew