Category Archives: Weekly Charts Post

OCT 3 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct321gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1721.10, and then we closed higher, at 1758.40!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and we have been falling in an ongoing length wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*. Wave *d*, land ooks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ perhaps finally ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to move higher again in wave $c$ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Alternate count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct321si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 21.41, although we also closed higher at 22.54!  

                                                                  

Our bullish wave (iv) triangle was eliminated this week, and we have updated our count to now suggest that all of wave i of 3 ended at 29.91. If that is the case then we have been correcting in wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

The current low of 21.41 is still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, but with the marker closing higher and above the 21.81 level, it may be possible that all of wave ii is complete at the 21.41 low. We will see how this market trades next week, to confirm that observation.

 

After wave ii ends, we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii and we will provide our initial projections for its completion when we believe all of wave ii is complete.

 

This count is much more bullish then our previous wave (iv) bullish triangle was!                                           

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.567%, but we closed our marginally higher at 1.465%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We are currently thinking that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all or most of wave *b* at the 1.567% high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this past week reaching a high of 76.67, closing at 75.88!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle all of a complex wave $d$ may have ended at 73.14, and all of wave $e$ at 69.39. If that is the case then all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we should now be thrusting higher in wave (v).

 

The other option is that wave $d$ is still underway as it can rally as high as the wave $b$ high of 76.89 for our current triangle formation to remain valid. If wave $d$ is still underway then after it ends should expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

The size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 21.49, closing at 20.96!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii) and the start of a sharp wave (iii) rally.

 

We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 17.10 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 4288.52, closing at 4357.04!

 

We know think that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is too early to say what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will turn into.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 94.52, closing at 94.05!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.52 high.

 

Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid. After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 881.35, although we closed lower at 865.88!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction just does not want to seem to come to an end and we made a new low within this corrective pattern this week.

 

We are again waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete, at the 847.92 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 28.83, but did close off those lows at 29.33.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 28.83 low.

 

We have satisfied all of our minimum conditions for the completion of all of wave *ii* at this low, and have also reached the bottom trendline of our wave ^c^ ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

Gold stocks continue to be very undervalued when compared to current price of gold, so either gold prices have to now fall sharply or the GDX has to soon start to rally sharply higher, as extremities in markets do not last too long.

 

If you believe in higher gold prices, and we do, gold stocks are all on sale at these prices!

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                               

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc321bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 48470, closing at 47950!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low.

 

This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

It looks like all of wave (b) is now complete at the 52919 high and if that is the case we should now be falling in wave (c), which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 28908.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

SEP 26 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2621gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1737.50, although we closed marginally higher at 1751.70!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in an ongoing length wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*. Wave *d*, looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ perhaps ending at the 1737.50 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to move higher again in wave $c$ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Alternate count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1735.70 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2621si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 22.02, although we closed higher at 22.42!  

                                                                  

Within our wave (iv) bullish triangle we it looks like we had one more drop in wave -c- which may not be complete at the 22.02 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -d-.

 

Wave -d- can rally as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35 for this triangle option to remain valid. After wave -d- ends we expect one more drop in wave -e- to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

A further drop now below 21.81, wave -a- low would eliminate our current triangle option and suggest that something is happening.  

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.466%, closing at 1.460%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The rally from 1.128% to the current high of 1.466% still looks corrective to us, which is suggesting that rates will be heading back to at least the 1.128% level, before all of wave (ii) ends.  

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2621oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 69.39, but we closed higher at 73.98, after reaching a high of 74.27!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle all of a complex wave $d$ may have ended at 73.14, and all of wave $e$ at 69.39. If that is the case then all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle is complete at the 69.39 high. We should now be thrusting higher in wave (v). The thrust should see using running to the $90 area.

 

The other option is that wave $d$ is still underway as it can rally as high as the wave $b$ high of 76.89 for our current triangle formation to remain valid. If wave $d$ is still underway then after it ends should expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i. The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep26521su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 20.41, closing at 20.22!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii) and the start of a sharp wave (iii) rally.

 

We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 17.10 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2621spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 4305.91, although we closed higher at 4455.48!

 

We know think that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is too early to say what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will turn into.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2621usd.png  

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.53, closing at 93..33!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle. All of wave $c$ of *iv* ended at the 93.75 high and we should now be falling in wave *d*. Wave *d* cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2621cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 847.92, closing at 876.13.

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction just does not want to seem to come to an end as we made a new low within this corrective pattern this week.

 

We are again waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete. At the 847.92 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep2621gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 29.54, closing at 29.68.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 29.54 low.

 

We have satisfied all of our minimum conditions for the completion of all of wave *ii* at this low.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

Gold stocks continue to be very undervalued when compared to current price of gold, so either gold prices have to now fall sharply or the GDX has to soon start to rally sharply higher, as extremities in markets do not last too long.

 

If you believe in higher gold prices, gold stocks are all on sale at these prices.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 39767, closing at 43203!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly. On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low. This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

It looks like all of wave (b) is now complete at the 52919 high and if that is the case we should now be falling in wave (c), which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 28908.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

SEP 19 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep1921gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1745.40, closing at 1751.40.

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in an ongoing length wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*. Wave *d*, looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ perhaps ending at the 1745.40 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to move higher again in wave $c$ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Our alternate count is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!          

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep1921si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 22.31, closing at 22.24.

                                                                  

Within our wave (iv) bullish triangle we believe all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 spike low and we are now rallying in wave -d-.

 

Wave -d- can rally as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35 for this triangle option to remain valid.

 

After wave -d- ends we expect one more drop in wave -e- to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

Silver cannot fall below the wave -c- low of 22.28 for our current triangle pattern to remain valid. A drop now below 22.28 would suggest that wave -c- is still underway. A drop below 21.81 would eliminate our current triangle option and suggest that something is happening.

 

The drop from 29.91 is still corrective which suggests that once this corrective pattern ends silver is going much higher.

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10.          

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.386%, closing at 1.370%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The rally from 1.128% looks to have become a double 3 wave corrective pattern, which is suggesting that rates will be heading back to at least the 1.128% level, before all of wave (ii) ends.  

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low.

 

We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep1921oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this past week reaching a high of 73.14, closing at 71.82!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle all of a complex wave $c$ looks to be complete at the 61.74 low.

 

If that is the case we are now rallying in wave $d$, which should be ending very soon. Wave $d$ cannot rally above the wave $b$ high of 76.89 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After wave $d$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i. The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep1921su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved higher this past week reaching ahigh of 1973, closing at 19.36!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii) and the start of a sharp wave (iii) rally.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 17.10 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                              

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep1921sp1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week reaching a low of 4427.76, closing at 4432.29!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep1921usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.24, closing at 93.18!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle. All of wave $c$ of *iv* ended at the 93.75 high and we should now be falling in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d* cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/ewfeb2419cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 884.10, closing at 886.83!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete.

 

We have met all of the minimum requirements for its completion at the 860.31 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C:

 

3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep1921gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower this past week, reaching a low of 30.35, closing at 30.58!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 30.68 low. We have satisfied all of our minimum conditions for the completion of all of wave *ii* at the 30.35 low now.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

Gold stocks continue to be very undervalued when compared to current price of gold, so either gold prices have to now fall sharply or the GDX has to soon start to rally sharply higher, as extremities in markets do not last too long.

 

If you believe in higher gold prices, gold stocks are all on sale!

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) =

 

66.37!                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep1921bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 48808, closing at 47214!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now officially complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly. On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low. This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

It looks like all of wave (b) is now complete at the 52919 high and if that is the case we should now be falling in wave (c), which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 28908.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

SEP 5 WEEKLY POST!

Note: No Weekly Post next weekend as the Captain will be away ohis 30th Weeding Anniversary in the Rocky Mountains.  Gold and silver... another decent week!

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week reaching a high of 1836.90, closing at 1833.70!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in a lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle. Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20. Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Our alternate count is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 24.94, closing at 24.80!  

                                                                  

Within our wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 spike low and we are now rallying in wave -d-. Wave -d- can rally as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35 for this triangle option to remain valid. After wave -d- ends we expect one more drop in wave -e- to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 1.270%, although we closed higher at 1.322%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s. This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The rally from 1.128% to the last week’s high of 1.379% looks to be a 3 wave corrective pattern, which is suggesting that rates will be heading back to at least the 1.128% level, before all of wave (ii) ends. We failed to close above our red downtrend line that is shown on our Daily Chart. 

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this past week reaching a high of 70.61, closing at 69.29!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. Within that bullish triangle all of a complex wave $c$ looks to be complete at the 61.74 low.

 

If that is the case we are now rallying in wave $d$. Wave $d$ cannot rally above the wave $b$ high of 76.89 for our current triangle formation to remain valid. After wave $d$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i. The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved sideways this past week, although we closed lower at 18.72!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii) and the start of a sharp wave (iii) rally. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 17.10 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521sp500.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4545.85, closing at 13.33, closing at 4535.43!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 91.80, closing at 92.03!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle. All of wave $c$ of *iv* ended at the 93.75 high and we should now be falling in wave *d*. Wave *d* cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 923.99, closing at 923.22!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete. We have met all of the minimum requirements for its completion at the 860.31 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 33.52, closing at 33.28!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 30.68 low. Our only concern is that our minimum target for this low was 30.64, so we will be cautious before we declare all of wave -ii- complete at the 30.68 low.

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

Gold stocks are now very undervalued when compared to current price of gold, so either gold prices have to now fall sharply or the GDX has to soon start to rally sharply higher, as extremities in markets do not last too long. If you believe in higher gold prices, gold stocks are all on sale at these prices.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ewsep521bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 51056, closing at 50166!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly. On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low. This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We should now be rallying in wave (b) rally which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50% = 46884;

61.8% = 51126.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for all of wave (b) so we have to be on guard for its completion and the start of another drop in wave (c) of 2 or B.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks

 

 

AUG 29 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Charts Post!

 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week reaching a high of 1821.90, closing at 1819.50!

                                                                          

We made a revision to our current longer-term count and now believe that all of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in a lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20. Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

We will update our Daily Gold Chart for tomorrow’s Morning Post.                           

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!              

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921si1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this past week reaching a high of 24.14, closing at 24.06!  

                                                                  

It now looks like our wave (iv) bullish triangle is expanding and extending after the big spike low. Within our wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 spike low and we are now rallying in wave -d-.

 

Wave -d- can rally as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35 for this triangle option to remain valid. After wave -d- ends we expect one more drop in wave -e- to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.375%, closing at 1.312%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s. This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The rally from 1.128% to the last week’s high of 1.379% looks to be a 3 wave corrective pattern, which is suggesting that rates will be heading back to at least the 1.128% level, before all of wave (ii) ends. We failed to close above our red downtrend line that is shown on our Daily Chart. 

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 61.74, although after that low was made we moved sharply higher reaching ahigh of 69.05, closing at 68.74!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle all of a complex wave $c$ looks to be complete at the 61.74 low. If that is the case we are now rallying in wave $d$.

 

Wave $d$ cannot rally above the wave $b$ high of 76.89 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After wave $d$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i.

 

The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921au.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 19.41, closing at 19.21!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (ii) and the start of a sharp wave (iii) rally. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 17.10 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4513.33, closing at 4509.37!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 92.63, closing at 92.69!

 

We still believe we are working on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it now appears to be expanding and extending. All of wave $c$ of *iv* ended at the 93.75 high and we should now be falling in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d* cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 891.45 and closing on its high of 891.45!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete. We have met all of the requirements for its completion at the 860.31 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is:

 

 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921gdx.png Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 32.73, closing at 32.61!!

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 30.68 low.

 

Our only concern is that our minimum target for this low was 30.64, so we will be cautious before we declare all of wave -ii- complete at the 30.68 low!

 

After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*.

 

Gold stocks are now very undervalued when compared to current price of gold, so either gold prices have to now fall sharply or the GDX has to soon start to rally sharply higher, as extremities in markets do not last too long.

 

As we have been saying, if you believe in higher gold prices, gold stocks are all on sale at these prices!

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug2921bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 50514, closing at 48404!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly. On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low. This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We should now be rallying in wave (b) rally which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50% = 46884;

61.8% = 51126.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for all of wave (b) so we have to be on guard for its completion and the start of another drop in wave (c) of 2 or B.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

AUG 15 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1675.90, although we closed higher at 1778.20!!

                                                                          

It was a very volatile week in gold as we plunged early in the Sunday night electronic session and over 24000 contracts were sold.

 

However, by the end of the week we actually closed higher!

 

In spite of all that plunge and recovery action, we believe we are still working on our wave .iv. of -iii- of (3) of 3 bullish triangle, and it is expanding and extending.

 

It looks like all of wave *c* ended at the spike low of 1675.90, so we are now rallying in wave *d*.

 

Wave *d* can rally as high as the wave *b* high of 2089.20 for our current bullish triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After wave *d* ends we expect one more drop in wave *e* to complete all of our wave .iv. bullish triangle.  

 

After our wave .iv. bullish triangle ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave .v, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 2535.10.                              

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!             

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower again this past week reaching a low of 22.28, closing at 23.78. 

                                                                  

It now looks like our wave (iv) bullish triangle is expanding and extending after the big spike low we had in last Sunday’s evenings electronic session.

 

Within our wave (iv) bullish triangle all of wave -c- ended at the 22.28 spike low, and we are now rallying in wave -d-.

 

Wave -d- can rally as high as the wave -b- high of 30.35 and this triangle option will remain valid. After wave -d- ends we expect one more drop in wave -e- to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10 an ounce higher, from the triangle breakout.          

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.379%, but by the end of the week we had lost almost all of those gains to close only marginally higher at 1.297%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive, and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The rally from 1.128% to the last week’s high of 1.379% looks to be a 3 wave corrective pattern, which is suggesting that rates will be heading back to at least the 1.128% level, before all of wave (ii) ends. We also failed to break and close above our red downtrend line.

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially sharply lower again this past week, reaching a low of 65.15, but we closed marginally higher at 68.44.

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we continue to work on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle we may still be working on a complex wave $c$. After wave $c$ ends we expect a wave $d$ rally.

 

After wave $cd$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of our wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i.

 

The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our larger wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially higher this past week, reaching a high of 19.79, although we closed lower at 19.19.

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect some further weakness next week, before all of wave (ii) ends. After wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp rally in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                             

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521sp500.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching yet another all-time high at 4468.37, and closing at 4468.00!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 93.21, although we closed lower at 92.51!!

 

We believe we are working on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, which we think is complete at the 93.21 high.

 

Only a break of the 93.47 high would suggest that is triangle is expanding and extending.

 

If our current count is valid then we should be falling in the initial stages of wave *v* of -iii- now.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.21!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways this past week, although we closed marginally lower at 923.06.

 

Wave -ii- of .iii. is now complete at the 868.40 low and we should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1593.60.                         

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is:

 

3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 31.90, closing at 32.82.

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and we are still falling in wave ^ii^ although it is getting very deep for our liking.

 

If wave *c* in gold is complete then we should see the GDX start to move sharply higher starting early next week.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug1521bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 48136, and closing at 46616!

 

All of wave 1 or A is complete at the 64860 high. We are falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low.

 

This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We are rallying in our wave (b) rally which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop.

 

Those retracement levels are:

 

50% = 46884;

61.8% = 51126.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for all of wave (b) so we have to be on guard for its completion and the start of another drop in wave (c) of 2 or B.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

AUG 8 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1759.50, closing at 1763.10.

                                                                          

We continue to work on our wave .iv. of -iii- of (3) of 3 bullish triangle , but wave *e* is still underway.

 

Wave *e* looks to have become a 3wave correction pattern, which has a minimum target for its completion of:

 

 1750.50.

 

Unfortunately, wave *e* can drop as low as 1673.30, before this current triangle formation is eliminated.  

 

We expect some weakness in gold early next week until we at least reach our minimum target of 1750.50. After wave *e* and .iv. end we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave .v.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 2535.10.                              

 

Active Positions: Long, with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 24.20, closing at 24.33.

                                                                  

Despite the action, it looks like our wave (iv) bullish triangle is still underway!

 

It will remain valid as long as the current drop stays above 23.74. If we continue to fall to that level then we suspect that our triangle is just expanding and extending.

 

A drop below 23.74 now, will mean that wave -c- has become a lot more complex.  

 

After our bullish wave (iv) triangle ends we still expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has a projected length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with puts as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1.119%, but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 1.300%, closing at 1.290%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s. This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

The other option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view, it is!

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 67.61, closing at 68.28!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and we now believe we are working on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle we completed wave $c$ at 65.01 and likely all of wave $d$ at the 74.23 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now falling in wave $e$ to complete all of wave (iv).

 

A drop now below the 65.01 low would suggest that our bullish triangle is expanding and extending.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i. The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that could see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 18.99, closing at 19.68!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level so we expect some further weakness next week, before all of wave (ii) ends. After wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp rally in wave (iii).

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4440.82, and closing at 4436.52!  Our counts continue on track.  The Wave V danger is extreme.

 

Note that the bear wedge on the chart is an Editor ST add.  Your editor isn’t exactly a stock market moron, having faxed all his Merrill Lynch stock broker clients in late dec 1999 to “sell everything, now!” after loading them up, bigtime, in the many years previous.

 

His calls to buy the stock market at the lows of 2008 and March 2020… and the bear wedge going into “Super Wave Five” fits with the Captain’s horrifying counts.

 

Note the Captain’s weekly chart “super wave five” target.  He’s looking at the Dow at a number of about 1000!  From a fundamentals perspective, what causes that?  Debt? War? Famine? More virus? Money Printing? All of these?  Whatever the cause, the action looks like… an empire wipeout!

 

Regardless, here’s the Captain and his specific count and positions summary:

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug81usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 92.85, closing at 92.80!

 

We believe we are working on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it may not be complete at the 93.19 high.

 

Only a break of the 93.47 high would suggest that this triangle is expanding and extending.

 

If our current count is valid then we should be falling in the initial stages of wave *v* of -iii- now.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.21!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 935.91, closing marginally higher at 925.65!

 

Wave -ii- of .iii. is now complete at the 868.40 low and we should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1593.60.                         

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is:

3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ewaug821gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 32.87, closing at 33.24.

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ at the 32.87 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave ^iii^ which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 47.50.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) =

 

$66.37!                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/32aug821bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply higher this past week, reaching a high of 45310, and closing at 44721!

 

All of wave 1 or A is complete at the 64860 high. We are falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low.

 

This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We should now be rallying in wave (b) rally which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50% = 46884;

61.8% = 51126.

 

After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

JULY 25 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul25gold1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1789.10, closing at 1801.80.

                                                                          

We made revisions to our current long term gold count, as shown on our Weekly Gold Chart….

 

And will have the monthly chart updated this week!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave (3) of 3, but now believe that we are still rallying in wave iii of (3), and within wave iii, we think that we likely completed a large bullish triangle at the recent low.

 

If that is the case then we are in the initial stages of a very large thrust higher in wave (v) of iii. Our next [projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 2535.10.

 

Of course triangles can always expand and extend, but for now we will assume that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

We will update our Daily Gold Chart to reflect this new wave (iv) bullish triangle for Monday’s post.

 

Gold may have completed its current correction at 1790.10 low, and if that is the case we should now start moving higher.                                  

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!              

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421si1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 24.79, closing at 25.23. 

                                                                  

We are now working on the assumption that we are still working on wave i of 3, and within wave i we have moving sideways over the last the year in a bullish wave (iv) triangle that is almost complete as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for its completion at the 24.79 low. Of course this triangle could also expand and extend, which would only occur if we continued to drop back to the 23.74 low.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has projected a length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1.128%, closing at 1.286%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s. This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. WE are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% -= 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially sharply lower again this past week reaching a low of 65.01, but we recovered all of those losses to close higher at 72.07!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and we now believe we are working on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle we completed wave $c$ at 65.01 and are now rallying in wave $d$. After wave $d$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of wave (iv).

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i.

 

The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul25su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially lower past week reaching a low of 19.56, closing at 20.81!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave iii is subdividing and within that wave we likely completed all of wave (i0 at the 25.73 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for this correction is 19.56, which is still short of our 50 % retracement level I suggesting that perhaps all of wave (ii) is still not complete the 19.56 low.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 4233.18, but by the end of the week we had recovered all of those losses to have reached another all-time high of 4415.18, closing at 4411.79!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421usd.png

 

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.19, closing at 92.93!

 

We have now adopted our bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle option as our preferred count. This is shown on our Daily USDX Chart.

 

A break of the 93.47 high would only suggest that this triangle option is expanding and extending.

 

On the Intraday Chart we are also watching a ending diagonal triangle formation within wave $e$ of *iv* which may be complete at the 93.20 high. If it is then we should star to move lower in wave *v* of -iii- now.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 868.48, closing at 902.56.

 

It appears that wave -iii- is still underway, although we so far have not reached our minimum target for wave (c) of -iii-, which is the wave (a) low of 867.26.

 

A trade now above 918.97 low, would confirm to us that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low, that we have finally stated to rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of eave -iii-, when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, and key juniors, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 32.87, closing at 33.15!

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ should now be complete at the 32.87 low. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ when e believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 29320, although we closed higher at 33965!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 of B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which could now be complete at the 28908 low, although on the Daily Bitcoin Chart we are watching a continuation of a bearish triangle formation as it may still be developing.

 

After wave (a) ends we expect a wave (b) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of the wave (b) rally, after we believe that all of wave (a) is complete.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

JULY 18 WEEKLY CHARTS POST

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold this past week reached a high of 1835.00, closing marginally higher at 1815.00.

                                                                          

Wave (ii) may now be complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to be rallying out of the 1750.10 low in an impulsive fashion which does not appear to be complete at the 1835.00 high, so we should see higher prices earlier next week.       

 

Next major resistance is back at the 1919.00 high.

 

We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii) likely next week.

 

The USDX is likely breaking lower now in an ending diagonal triangle formation which is bullish for gold and silver.                                          

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 2687.80.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We suspect that wave *iii* will likely extend since wave ^iii^ of *iii* is now projected to be higher than the current complete wave *iii* projection.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.  

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 25.64, closing at 25.80.

                                                                  

We updated the internal wave count for all of wave i to now suggest that the sideways trading over the last the year is a bullish triangle that is almost complete as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart.

 

Unfortunately, it looks like we need one more drop below the 25.58 low to complete the minimum requirements for this pattern to become complete, unless it extends and expands.

 

This bullish triangle is wave (iv) and within wave (iv) we are now working on wave -e-. more details within wave -e- has been shown on our Daily Silver Chart. After wave (iv) ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has projected a length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.420%, but by the end of the week we had closed significantly off that high at 1.300%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence. Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910%.

 

We expect to move higher as we head toward the 1.910% level. Within wave (iii) we completed wave *iii* at 1.765% and are still working on our wave *iv* correction. After wave *iv* ends we expect a wave *v* rally to complete all of wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 70.16, closing at 71.56!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and all of wave (iv) as a bullish triangle at 58.73.

 

We are now rallying in wave (v) of i, which still appears incomplete!

 

A continuation of this rally to at least the 76.90 level appears likely. After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

Within wave (v), we may NOW have completed all of wave $iv$ at the 70.16 low, although wave $iv$ could still become more complex and even a bullish triangle formation.

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower past week reaching a low of 20.86, closing at 20.98!

 

We continue to rally higher in wave iii. Our have updated our projection for the end of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -iii- ended at the 25.73 and wave -iv- at 20.86. We should start rallying in wave -v- of (i) very soon. After wave (i) ends we expect a drop in wave (ii) which should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4393.68, although we closed lower at 4327.16!

 

It still appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul18218usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 92.83, closing at 92.69!

 

It looks like within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at 89.52, and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave *ii*.

 

We are watching an ending diagonal triangle formation on the Daily USDX Chart, that may now be complete at the 92.84 high, although on the Intraday Chart it looks like we might make one more new high above 92.84, before this ending diagonal triangle formation actually ends.

 

A break now below the 92.00 will confirm that it is complete at the 92.84 high. Then, we should expect the USDX to start to drop in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave *iii* next week.

 

We are still watching the very bearish triangle formation alternate count as shown on our Daily USDX Chart, which remains valid and if this is the path that the USDX is following then the USDX is heading sharply lower, which would support much higher gold and silver prices.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 906.78, closing at 908.31.

 

It is starting to appear that all of wave $ii$ is NOT complete at the 902.36 low. If that is the case then we will likely revisit this low again early next week before all of wave $ii$ actually ends.

 

After that wave $iii$ ends we should start to rally higher again in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave $iii$ when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 35.16, although we closed lower at 33.92.

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ should now be complete at the 33.30 low.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ likely next week as we expect that our wave ^iii^ rally is still just getting started.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                              

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and… we have added to our long positions!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching a low of 31046, closing at 31672.

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 of B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which could now be complete at the 28908 low, although on the Daily Bitcoin Chart we are watching a continuation of a bearish triangle formation as it may still be developing.

 

After wave (a) ends we expect a wave (b) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of the wave (b) rally, after we believe that all of wave (a) is complete.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

JULY 11 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

                           Weekend Post

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1021gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week reaching a high of 1819.50, closing at 1810.60!

                                                                          

Wave (ii) may now be complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to be rallying out of the 1750.10 low in an impulsive fashion which does not appear over at the 1819.00 high, so we should see higher prices earlier next week.

 

In fact, on the same Intraday Chary from the 1815.70 high we appear to be working on a bullish triangle that is almost complete.

 

If this observation is correct then once this bullish triangle ends we should see a thrust higher of about $30 plus based on the size of the current triangle formation.      

 

Next resistance is back at the 1919.00 high.

 

We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii) likely next week.

 

The USDX is likely breaking lower now in an ending diagonal triangle formation that is bullish for gold and silver.                                          

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 2687.80.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We suspect that wave *iii* will likely extend since wave ^iii^ of *iii* is now projected to be higher than the current complete wave *iii* projection.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops. We added to our longs!

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1121si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 26.91, but we closed lower at 26.23.

                                                                  

Wave ii is complete at the 21.96 low and we are now rallying higher in wave iii of 3, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 51.52.

 

Within wave iii, we completed wave (i) at 29.91 and all of wave (ii) at the 23.74 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii) of iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 34.22.

 

Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 28.90 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 25.58 low. If that is the case we are now starting to rally higher again in wave -iii-.   

 

We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 25.58 low. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii- likely next week.                                                 

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop. We added to our long on Friday.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield were sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1.268%, closing at 1.1356%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910%.

 

We expect to move higher as we head toward the 1.910% level. Within wave (iii) we completed wave *iii* at 1.765% and are still working on our wave *iv* correction.

 

After wave *iv* ends we expect a wave *v* rally to complete all of wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1121oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 70.76, although by the end of week we had recovered most of those losses to only close marginally lower at 74.56.

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and all of wave (iv) as a bullish triangle at 58.73. We are now rallying in wave (v) of i, which appears incomplete. A continuation of this rally to at least the 76.90 level appears likely.

 

After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

Within wave (v), we may have completed all of wave $iv$ at the 70.76 low, although the time to it took to develop seemed to be a bit short, so wave $iv$ could still be underway as a bullish triangle formation.

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1121su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower past week reaching a low of 22.53, closing at 23.27!

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii. Our have updated our projection for the end of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -iii- ended at the 25.73 and wave -iv- at 22.53. We should now be rallying in wave -v- of (i). After wave (i) ends we expect a drop in wave (ii) which should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1121sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4371.60, closing at 4369.55!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1121usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 92.84, although we closed lower at 92.12!

 

It looks like within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at 89.52, and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave *ii*.

 

We are watching an ending diagonal triangle formation on the Daily USDX Chart, that may now be complete at the 92.84 high. A break now below the 92.00 will confirm that it is complete at the 92.84 high.

 

If that is the case then we should expect the USDX to start to drop in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave *ii* next week.

 

We are still watching the very bearish triangle formation alternate count as shown on our Daily USDX Chart, which remains valid and if this is the path that the USDX is following then the USDX is heading sharply lower, which would support much higher gold and silver prices.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1121cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 918.97, closing at 938.47.

 

It appears that wave $ii$ is now complete at the 902.36 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to rally sharply higher in wave $iii$, and within wave $iii$, wave *i* ended at 981.88 and all or most of wave *ii* at the 918.97 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to rally higher in wave *iii* of $iii$. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave $iii$ likely next week.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, AND KEY JUNIORS, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1121gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 33.38, but we recovered most of those early losses to close only marginally lower at 34.37!

 

We expect to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It look like that with wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ should now be complete at the 33.30 low.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ likely next week as we expect that our wave ^iii^ rally is just getting started.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                  

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we have added to our long positions!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1121bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching a low of 32109, closing at 33733!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 of B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which could now be complete at the 28908 low, although on the Daily Bitcoin Chart we are watching a continuation of a bearish triangle formation still developing.

 

After wave (a) ends we expect a wave (b) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of the wave (b) rally, after we believe that all of wave (a) is complete.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew