Category Archives: Morning Post

OCT 15 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021oct15cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 926.08, closing at 925.43!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and it now looks like wave -ii- is finally complete at the 847.92 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16.

 

In the short term we have lots of resistance to get through between the current level and 1000.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher again in yesterday’s trading reaching a high of 32.93, closing at 32.85!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 28.83 low, and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we are still working on wave $i$. We expect that wave $i$ will end above our upper red downtrend line, perhaps reaching the 33.52 resistance area before it ends. After wave $i$ ends we expect a wave $ii$ correction that could test the breakout, which we expect will be successful.   

 

Wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1801.90.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1770.70!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid.

 

Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and all of wave $b$ at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

Gold is now accelerating higher as we suggested in wave $c$ of .d. After wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

We are now testing resistance at our red downtrend line that connects 1919.20 and 1836.90. We expect this to be strong resistance, but expect we will break through early next week. After that we should continue higher to our neck line resistance.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10.

 

This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 23.63. After reaching that high we dropped off a bit to reach a low of 23.11!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii. Our next big challenge will be to break above our purple downtrend line which is shown on our Daily Silver Chart. We expect to achieve that soon.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                    

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.518%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.617% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521usd.png  

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4439.73. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 18 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We have provided our first possible corrective pattern within wave (iv) as shown on the 120 Min SP500 Chart.

 

We are thinking that wave .a. of -a- of (iv) ended at 4305.91, and we are now working on a bearish wave .b. triangle that remains incomplete.

 

After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv). After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach our exceed the previous all-time high.

 

After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 93.76.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 94.07!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* has exceeded a little higher to 94.57. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1521oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 82.30!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 14 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021oct14cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 918.63, almost closing on its high at 918.59!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway.

 

Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low as we are now fast approaching that line, which we may break through today.

 

We suspect that since the GDX is breaking higher now that the CDNX will not be far behind.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/eweoc1421gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1421gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading reaching a high of 32.32, closing at 32.15!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low, and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we are still working on wave $i$. We expect that wave $i$ will end above our upper red downtrend line, perhaps reaching the 33.52 resistance area before it ends.

 

After wave $i$ ends we expect a wave $ii$ correction that could test the breakout, which we expect will be successful.   

 

Wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1421gold.png

 

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1801.80!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and all of wave $b$ at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

Gold is now accelerating higher as we suggested in wave $c$ of .d. After wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

We are now testing resistance at our red downtrend line that connects 1919.20 and 1836.90. We expect to break through that resistance this week, perhaps today. After that we should continue higher to our neck line resistance.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1421si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 23.42!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ii ended at the 21.41 low and if that is the case then we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We are rallying in wave -i- of (i) of iii. Our next big challenge will be to break above our purple downtrend line which is shown on our Daily Silver Chart. We expect to achieve that possibly this week.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1421bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.519%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.617% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1421spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1421sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4329.92, although we closed higher at 4363.80.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply higher by about 42 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We have provided our first possible corrective pattern within wave (iv) as shown on the 120 Min SP500 Chart.

 

We are thinking that wave .a. of -a- of (iv) ended at 4305.91, and we are now working on a bearish wave .b. triangle that remains incomplete.

 

After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv). After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach our exceed the previous all-time high.

 

After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct1421usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 93.76!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* has exceeded a little higher to 94.57. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1421oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 79.42. After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 81.64!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT13 morning post!

ST: I have updated the Monthly CRB Chart. Look at that wave C!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ew0c1321vcdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 897.18, closing at 896.97!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway.

 

Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low, as we are now fast approaching that line.

 

We suspect that since the GDX is breaking higher now that the CDNX will not be far behind.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading reaching a high of 31.26, closing at 31.14!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 28.83 low, and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72!

 

Within wave *iii* we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we are still working on wave $i$. We expect that wave $i$ will end above our upper red downtrend line then our wave $ii$ correction will drop to test that breakout, which we expect will be successful.   

 

Wave *iii* will likely take 12 to 18 months to develop.   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1777.20!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and all of wave $b$ at the 1721.10 low. We are now rallying in wave $c$ which has a projection for its completion of:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80!

 

Gold should start to accelerate higher now in wave $c$ of .d. After wave .d. ends we expect one more drop in wave .e. to complete all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Another plausible possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is complete and that the next rally in gold will be a substantial thrust higher in wave -v-

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 22.33.

 

In the overnight session we moved higher reaching a high of 22.96!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the lengthy corrective wave ii pattern is now almost complete. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to. This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii.

 

On the Intraday Chart silver looks to have completed an impulsive sequence from 21.41 to 23.22, and we are now correcting that impulsive move, which has retracement levels as follows:

 

50% = 22.32;

61.8% =22.10.

 

We did reach a low of 22.33 in yesterday’s day session after which we moved higher, so we suspect that our current correction is now complete.

 

This means that silver should start to accelerate higher in the days ahead.

 

Wave ii has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.556%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibly at the 1.617% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4342.09. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 8 points.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We have provided our first possible corrective pattern within wave (iv) as shown on the 120 Min SP500 Chart. We are thinking that wave .a. of -a- of (iv) ended at 4305.91, and we are now working on a bearish wave .b. triangle that remains incomplete.

 

After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv). After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach our exceed the previous all-time high.

 

After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

 

Wave (iv) looks to be developing into a complex flat or irregular type corrective pattern.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 94.57. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 94.25!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* has exceeded a little higher to 94.57. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1321oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 79.47. After that low was made we spiked higher reaching ahigh of 81.61. In the overnight session as we have moved lower again reaching a low of 79.83!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

OCT 12 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021oct12cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 881.05, closing at 877.48! This market was closed yesterday due to the Canadian Thanksgiving Day holiday.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway. Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1221gdx.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct12gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was marginally lower in yesterday’s trading reaching a low of 30.51, closing at 30.58!

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are now within our retracement zone, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally.  

 

We are now getting close to breaking above our upper blue down trendline that will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low. Also, we are getting close to breaking and closing above our red horizontal trendline running around the 30.65/30.70 level.

 

We think we will accomplish both of those events this week.

 

We have updated our 60 Min GDX Chart and believe that we are working on an incomplete wave $i$ of -i- of *iii* impulsive sequence.      

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1221gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1749.90, but after making that low we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1765.40!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d. Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid.

 

Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1721.10 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. Another projection for the end of wave $c$ is:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

We have now broken and closed above our purple downtrend, so we should start to move higher now in wave $c$, and on the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.10 to 1782.40 is a completed impulsive sequence.

 

We are now correcting that impulsive move higher and have the following retracement levels for its completion:

 

50% = 1751.80;

61.6% = 1744.50.

 

We have reached our 50% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of this correction and that start of another rally in gold.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is completed and that the next rally in gold will be substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This is our alternate count.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1221si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we initially moved lower reaching a low of 22.47, but after that low was made we moved higher currently trading at the 22.62 level!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the lengthy corrective wave ii pattern is now almost complete. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to.

 

This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii. Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

On the Intraday Chart silver looks to have completed an impulsive sequence from 21.41 to 23.22, and we are now correcting that impulsive move, which has retracement levels as follows:

 

50% = 22.32;

61.8% =22.10.

 

We are still a little short of our 50% retracement level so we could see further weakness, before silver starts to move higher again.

 

Wave ii has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1221bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching ahigh of 1.631%, but after that high was made we move lower to currently be trading at the 1.603% level!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4360.59. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 4 points.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

We have provided our first possible corrective a pattern within wave (iv) as shown on the 120 Min SP500 Chart.

 

We are thinking that wave .a. of -a- of (iv) ended at 4305.91, and we are now working on a bearish wave .b. triangle that remains incomplete.

 

After wave .b. ends we expect a sharp drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -a- of (iv). After wave -a- ends we expect a rally in wave -b- that should reach our exceed the previous all-time high.

 

After wave -b- ends we expect another drop in wave -c-, which will at least trade below our wave a- low to complete all of wave (iv), and into our retracement zone noted above.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 94.44.

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 94.52 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 80.00!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 11 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 881.05, closing at 877.48!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway. Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Friday’s trading reaching a high of 31.36, closing at 30.67!

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are now within our retracement zone, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally.  

 

Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low. In the shorter term a break and close above our red horizontal trendline running around the 30.65/30.70 level would be a very encouraging sign for the bulls, which we challenged in yesterday’s trading session.

 

We are very closing in accomplishing both of these challenges, which is very good sign for the bulls.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially higher in Friday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1782.40. After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1751.20. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1755.60 level!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1721.10 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. Another projection for the end of wave $c$ is:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

We have now broken and closed above our purple downtrend, so we should start to move higher now in wave $c$, and on the Intraday Chart the rally form 1721.10 to 1782.40 is a completed impulsive sequence. We are now correcting that impulsive move higher and have the following retracement levels for its completion:

 

50% = 1751.80;

61.6% = 1744.50.

 

We have reached our 50% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of this correction and that start of another rally in gold.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is completed and that the next rally in gold will be substantial thrust higher in wave -v-.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session, reaching a high of 23.22. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 22.51!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the lengthy corrective wave ii pattern is now almost complete. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to. This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii. Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

On the Intraday Chart silver looks to have completed an impulsive sequence from 21.41 to 23.22, and we are now correcting that impulsive move, which has retracement levels as follows:

 

50% = 22.32;

61.8% =22.10.

 

We are still a little short of our 50% retracement level so we could see further weakness, before silver starts to move higher again.

 

Wave ii has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in Friday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1.617%. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1.612% level!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct1121spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct1121sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4386.92. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are lower by about 21 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is still much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 93.93. After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 94.31!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 94.52 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 82.17!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 8 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct821cdnx.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 874.83, closing at 874.50!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before. It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway.

 

Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct821gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct821gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading reaching a high of 30.69, closing at 30.40!

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are now within our retracement zone, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally.  

 

Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low. In the shorter term a break and close above our red horizontal trendline running around the 30.65/30.70 level would be a very encouraging sign for the bulls, which we challenged in yesterday’s trading session.

 

The GDX had now reached oversold territory on a daily basis, as we think this very long wave *ii* correction is almost complete. Remember that form a Ewave psychologically speaking point of view at end of wave *ii* type corrections, in a bull market like gold is in, the bulls will be in total capitulation mode and we questioning whether gold in this case will every rally again. These lows should be viewed as buying opportunities and it is form the mentality that wave *iii* is going to begin soon.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc821gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher, after the release of the September US Employment Report, reaching a high of 1775.10!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1721.10 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. Another projection for the end of wave $c$ is:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

We have now broken and closed above our purple downtrend, so we should start to move higher now in wave $c$.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is completed and that the next rally in gold will be substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc821si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher, after the release of the September US Employment Report, reaching a high of 22.93!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the lengthy corrective wave ii pattern is now almost complete. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to. This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii. Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

Wave ii has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct821bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.601%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc821spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc821sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4429.97. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 4 points.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is still much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc821usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching a high of 94.35, but after the release of the September US Employment Report we moved lower reaching a low of 93.97!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 94.52 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc821oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 79.53!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

 

The test of the breakout of 76.90 level seems to have been successful.

                                                                                                  

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 16.91, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 7 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved mostly sideways in yesterday’s trading session, although we closed lower at 862.72.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before!

 

It appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway. Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading reaching a high of 30.34 as we also closed on the high!  Great action!!

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are within our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally.

 

We are waiting for confirmation of the end of wave *ii*, as we are also approaching the lower trendline of our ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low. In the shorter term a break and close above our red horizontal trendline running around the 30.65/30.70 level would be a very encouraging sign for the bulls.

 

The GDX has reached oversold territory on a daily basis, as we think this very long wave *ii* correction is almost complete. Remember that form a Ewave psychologically speaking point of view at end of wave *ii* type corrections, in a bull market like gold is in, the bulls will be in total capitulation mode and we questioning whether gold in this case will every rally again. These lows should be viewed as buying opportunities and it is form the mentality that wave *iii* is going to begin soon.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1767.70!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1721.10 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. Another projection for the end of wave $c$ is:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

We have broken and closed above our purple downtrend, so we should start to move higher in wave $c$.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10.

 

This would mean that all of wave -iv- is completed and that the next rally in gold will be substantial thrust higher in wave -v-.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 22.83!

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the lengthy corrective wave ii pattern is almost complete. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to.

 

This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii.

 

Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

Wave ii has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

We have cancelled our additional buy order at 20.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.543%. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1.528% level.

 

It looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon, possibility at the 1.571% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4290.49, although we closed higher at 4363.55. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply higher by about 40 points!

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is still much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session we have reached a low of 94.09!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 94.52 high. If that is the case then we should be be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct721oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 74.97.

 

After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 76.72!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

 

We are testing the breakout of the 76.90 level, which we believe will be successful.

                                                                                                  

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 16.91, which is within our retracement zone. We need to be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 6 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 867.28 and closing on its high of 867.28!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway. Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved mostly sideways in yesterday’s trading and we closed higher at 29.78!

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are within our retracement zone, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally.

 

We are waiting for confirmation of the end of wave *ii*, as we are also approaching the lower trendline of our ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low. In the shorter term a break and close above our red horizontal trendline running around the 30.65/30.70 level would be a very encouraging sign for the bulls.

 

The GDX had now reached oversold territory on a daily basis, as we think this very long wave *ii* correction is almost complete. Remember that form a Ewave psychologically speaking point of view at end of wave *ii* type corrections, in a bull market like gold is in, the bulls will be in total capitulation mode and we questioning whether gold in this case will every rally again. These lows should be viewed as buying opportunities and it is form the mentality that wave *iii* is going to begin soon.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 1745.90. After that low   was made we moved higher again reaching ahigh of 1759.80!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1721.10 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. Another projection for the end of wave $c$ is:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

We have now broken and closed above our purple downtrend, and in the overnight session the drop to 1745.90 is another test of that breakout. So far the test has been successful. We should start to move higher now in wave $c$ if all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1721.10 low.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is completed and that the next rally in gold will be substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 22.21. After that low was made we moved higher again reaching a high of 22.45!

 

As you can see in our Daily Silver Chart we have updated out count to now be much more bullish then we had previously thought. It now looks like all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the current lengthy corrective pattern is now an almost complete wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to. This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this painful correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii. Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 22.79 to the current low of 22.21 is corrective looking, which is suggesting that once this corrective pattern ends silver will be heading higher.  

 

Wave ii looks to have become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

We are not discouraged, however, and will be adding to our silver positions at 20.50, although we are not sure we are going to get down there now.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add at 20.50, and but puts as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!  Add at 20.50, with a put as the stop.                                                                                                                                           

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.571%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibility at the 1.571% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4369.23. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply lower by about 44 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 94.45!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 94.52 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc621oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued early in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 79.78. After that high was made we moved lower currently trading at the 78.30 level.

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                                  

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 16.91, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 5 morning post!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct521cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 867.11, although we closed a tad lower at 860.16.

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway.

 

Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct521gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct521gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a high of 29.90, closing at 29.67!

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are now within our retracement zone, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation of the end of wave *ii*, as we are also approaching the lower trendline of our ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low. In the shorter term a break and close above our red horizontal trendline running around the 30.65/30.70 level would be a very encouraging sign for the bulls.

 

The GDX had now reached oversold territory on a daily basis, as we think this very long wave *ii* correction is almost complete. Remember that form a Ewave psychologically speaking point of view at end of wave *ii* type corrections, in a bull market like gold is in, the bulls will be in total capitulation mode and we questioning whether gold in this case will every rally again. These lows should be viewed as buying opportunities and it is form the mentality that wave *iii* is going to begin soon.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct5221gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1771.50. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1753.80, although after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 1761.20!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1721.10 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. Another projection for the end of wave $c$ is:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

We have now broken and closed above our purple downtrend, and in the overnight session the drop to the 1754 level appears to be testing that breakout.

 

So far the test has been successful. We should start to move higher now in wave $c$ if all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1721.10 low.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is completed and that the next rally in gold will be substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct521si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 22.61 level!

 

As you can see in our Daily Silver Chart we have updated out count to now be much more bullish then we had previously thought. It now looks like all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the current lengthy corrective pattern is now an almost complete wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to.

 

This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this painful correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii. Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to be working on a bullish triangle formation that started at the 22.79 high and likely ended at the 22.48 low. If this observation is correct then after this triangle ends we should see a thrust higher.  

 

Wave ii looks to have become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

We are not discouraged, however, and will be adding to our silver positions at 20.50, although we are not sure we are going to get down there now.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add at 20.50, and but puts as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!  Add at 20.50, with a put as the stop.                                                                                                                                           

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc521bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 1.489% level!.

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibility at the 1.567% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc521spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct521sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4278.94. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 18 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct521usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 93.68. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 94.05.

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 94.52 high.

 

If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct521oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 78.64!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                                  

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 16.91, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 4 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct421cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 865.88 and we closed on the high of 865.88!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway. Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct421gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc421gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was a bit lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 29.11, closing at 29.33.

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are now within our retracement zone, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation of the end of wave *ii*, as we are also approaching the lower trendline of our ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low. In the shorter term a break and close above our red horizontal trendline running around the 30.65/30.70 level would be a very encouraging sign for the bulls.

 

The GDX had now reached oversold territory on a daily basis, as we think this very long wave *ii* correction is almost complete. Remember that form a Ewave psychologically speaking point of view at end of wave *ii* type corrections, in a bull market like gold is in, the bulls will be in total capitulation mode and we questioning whether gold in this case will every rally again. These lows should be viewed as buying opportunities and it is form the mentality that wave *iii* is going to begin soon.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc421gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was marginally higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1766.50.

 

After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1747.90, and we are currently trading at the 1754.00 level!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1727.90 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. Another projection for the end of wave $c$ is:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

A break and close above our purple downtrend would heavily support our idea that all of wave $b$ is complete at the 1721.10 low and that we are now rallying higher in at least wave $c$ of .d.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from the 1764.90 high to the current low of 1747.90 looks to be a corrective pattern, which is suggesting that once it ends gold will be moving higher again.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is completed and that the next rally in gold will be substantial thrust higher in wave -v-. This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc421si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 22.79. After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of  22.29, and we are currently trading at the 22.41 level!

 

As you can see in our Daily Silver Chart we have updated out count to now be much more bullish then we had previously thought. It now looks like all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the current lengthy corrective pattern is now an almost complete wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to.

 

This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this painful correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii. Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

On Friday, we did break and close above our lower red trendline now which supports our idea that all of wave ii is now likely complete at the 21.41 low.  

 

Wave ii looks to have become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

We are not discouraged, however, and will be adding to our silver positions at 20.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add at 20.50, and but puts as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!  Add at 20.50, with a put as the stop.  

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct421bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1.463%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.500%!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now, possibility at the 1.567% high.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct421spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct421sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was initially lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4288.52, but after that low as made we moved sharply higher closing at 4357.04. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 16 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct421usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 93.77!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 94.52 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct421oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 76.14!

 

We continue to work on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Our wave (iv) bullish triangle may now be complete at the 69.39 low.

 

A trade above the 76.98 high will confirm that.

 

If that is the case then we are now thrusting sharply higher in wave (v) of i. The thrust could run to the $90/95 area, but let’s get through 76.98 first.

 

We still cannot rule the possibility that all of wave $d$ ended at the 76.76 high and that we are now falling in wave $e$ also. Triangles do like to extend and expand.

                                                                                                      

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 16.91, which is now within our retracement zone. We need to now be on guard for the end of wave (ii) and the start another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

We will provide our initial projection for the completion of wave (iii) when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew