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mar 26 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

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CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 919.25, and closing at 936.60.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

From an Ewaves point of we have satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of all of wave $ii$ at the 919.25 low and have also reached our 61.8% retracement for all of wave $ii$. Wave $ii$ looks to have a 3 wave corrective sequence on the Intraday Chart.

 

We are now need to really be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ and the start of our sharp wave $iii$ rally higher.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621gdxd.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 31.91, closing at 32.24.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all or most of wave -ii- at the 31.91 low. Our retracement levels for all of this wave -ii- correction are:

 

50% = 32.58;

61.8% = 32.11.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we really need to be on  for the end of wave -ii- and the start of a sharp rally higher in wave -iii- of ^i^. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.                             

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1744.80. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1719.40.

 

We continue to watch for the imminent breakout above our blue downtrend line as shown on our Daily Gold Chart!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows. The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 24.45.

 

After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 25.33.

 

We have updated our current silver count to suggest that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low. If that is the case then we have started to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 28.11, and we are now working on a complex wave -iii- correction. Our minimum target for the end of our ending diagonal triangle wave *c* and all of wave -ii- is the wave *a* of -iii- low of 24.04. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 24.74

61.8% = 24.32.

 

There is an outside chance that all of wave -ii- ended as a failure at the 24.45 low, but that will be our alternate count for now.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                              

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.591%. In the overnight session we have moved sharply higher reaching a high of 1.676%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 53.50, but we closed higher at 3909.53. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 6 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at the current high of 3983.87, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 92.94. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 92.88 level.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 91.95.

38.2% = 93.68.

 

It looks like wave -iv- has become more complex than we had original thought, but we still believe that all or most of it is likely complete at these current levels. On the Intraday Chart is looks like wave -iv- has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

We could still move higher to our 38.2% retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

                                                            

Another projection for the completion of wave -iv- is:

 

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2621oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 57.45. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 60.26.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness. On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a 5 wave drop from the 67.98 high to the 57.27 low. If that is the case then this completes our first drop in a possible 3 wave corrective pattern that will form all of our wave $ii$ correction.

 

Therefore we should now expect the rally again (50% to 61.8% of the first drop) before we drop one more time, below the 57.27 low to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will breakthrough this line decisively to move sharply higher.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

mar 25 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 943.53, closing at 946.51.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 933.56

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 917.91.

 

From an Ewaves point of w we have satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of all of wave $ii$ at the 943.53 low, although we are still a bit short of at least our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave $ii$.

 

Wave $ii$ looks to have a 3 wave corrective sequence on the Intraday Chart.

 

We are now on guard for the end of wave $ii$ and the start of our sharp wave $iii$ rally higher.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 32.28, closing at 32.30.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all or most of wave -ii- at the 32.53 low. The 32.53 low is within our retracement levels for all of this wave -ii- correction which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 32.58;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 32.11.

 

WE now need to be on guard for the start of a sharp rally higher in wave -iii- of ^i^. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.                             

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521gold.png  

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1738.10. After the high was made we moved lower reaching a low of  1725.00.

 

We continue to watch for the imminent breakout above our blue downtrend line as shown on our Daily Gold Chart!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.

 

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 25.37.

 

After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 24.57.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

With gold and the GDX now appearing to have completed their recent corrections it is unlikely that our current silver count is correct. We suspect that all of wave (ii) ended at either the 21.81 or 21.96 lows.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.                                                                                                                                               

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521bond.png Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.600{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3889.07. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 11 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at the current high of 3983.87, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar25usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 92.71.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

It looks like wave -iv- has become more complex than we had original thought, but we still believe that all or most of it is likely complete at these current levels.

 

On the Intraday Chart is looks like wave -iv- has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern. We could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

                                                            

Another projection for the completion of wave -iv- is:

 

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2521oil.png Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sharply higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 61.23. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 59.23.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 50.81;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness. On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a 5 wave drop from the 67.98 high to the 57.27 low. If that is the case then this completes our first drop in a possible 3 wave corrective pattern that will form all of our wave $ii$ correction.

 

Therefore we should now expect the rally again (50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the first drop) before we drop one more time, below the 57.27 low to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will breakthrough this line decisively to move sharply higher.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

mar 24 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 963.65, closing at 966.82.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

We are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, and within wave $ii$ we have now satisfied the minimum requirements for its completion at the 963.65 low.

 

Wave $ii$ looks to have a 3 wave corrective sequence on the Intraday Chart. After wave $ii$ ends we expect aa very sharp rally in wave $iii$.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 32.53, closing at 32.64.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all or most of wave -ii- at the 32.53 low.

 

The 32.53 low is within our retracement levels for all of this wave -ii- correction, so we need to be on guard for the start of a sharp rally higher in wave -iii- of ^i^.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.                             

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1722.70.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1734.80.

 

We continue to watch for the imminent breakout above our blue downtrend line as shown on our Daily Gold Chart!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.

 

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421si.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 25.03. In the overnight session we moved higher reaching a high of 25.43.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

With gold and the GDX now appearing to have completed their recent corrections it is unlikely that our current silver count is correct. We suspect that all of wave (ii) ended at either the 21.81 or 21.96 lows.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                            

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.589{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades.

 

The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3901.57.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 19 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at the current high of 3983.87, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar24221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 92.61.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

It looks like wave -iv- has become more complex than we had original thought, but we still believe that all or most of it is likely complete at these current levels.

 

On the Intraday Chart is looks like wave -iv- has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern. We could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

                                                            

Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2421oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 57.27. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching ahigh of 59.75.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 50.81;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness. On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a 5 wave drop from the 67.98 high to the 57.27 low.

 

If that is the case then this completes our first drop in a possible 3 wave corrective pattern that will form all of our wave $ii$ correction.

 

Therefore we should now expect the rally again (50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the first drop) before we drop one more time, below the 57.27 low to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

mar 23 morning post

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching ahigh of 1001.83, although we closed just marginally lower at 994.83.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. ended at the 867.26 low. We should now working on the initial stages of wave (i) of -iii-. In fact we are likely working on wave $i$ of (i) of -iii-,which could be complete at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$.  Wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ, key juniors (and now aurion too!) as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 33.49 and closing on that low of 33.49.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Our next major resistance level will be our upper red downtrend line that connects 45.78, 41.81 and 39.01. It currently crosses at the 35.00/36.00 level. In the short term we are probably working on wave -i- of ^i^ of *iii*.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 1738.50 level.

 

We continue to watch for the imminent breakout above our blue downtrend line as shown on our Daily Gold Chart!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows. The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 25.92.

 

After that high was made we moved lower to currently be trading at the 25.66. level.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

With gold and the GDX now appearing to have completed their recent corrections it is now very unlikely that our current silver count is correct. We will need to take another look, but we suspect that all of wave (ii) ended at either the 21.81 or 21.96 lows.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.                                                                                                                                               

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.626{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321asp120.png

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3955.31. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 14 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14.

 

We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at the current high of 3983.87, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 91.70. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 92.19.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

We have now rallied into our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the possible completion of all of wave -iv-, although this market could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends. Wave -iv- may now be complete at the 92.53 high. On the Intraday Chart the rally from 91.44 to 92.00 looks to be corrective and if that is the case then we should now be heading lower again.

                                                            

Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2321oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 62.03. In the overnight session we have moved sharply lower reaching a low of 58.50.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 50.81;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

mar 22 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways Friday’s trading session, although we closed higher at the high of 995.80.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. ended at the 867.26 low. We should now working on the initial stages of wave (i) of -iii-.

 

In fact, we are likely working on wave $i$ of (i) of -iii-,which could be complete at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$.  

 

Wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.   Buying Aurion, 2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of Ewave Juniors Portfolio (EJP) for size.

                

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221gdx60-1.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, although we closed higher at 33.89.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Our next major resistance level will be our upper red downtrend line that connects 45.78, 41.81 and 39.01. It currently crosses at the 35.00/36.00 level.

 

In the short term we are probably working on wave -i- of ^i^ of *iii*.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1746.80.

 

After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1726.50, as we are currently trading at the 1734.00 level.

 

We continue to watch for the imminent breakout above our blue downtrend line as shown on our Daily Gold Chart!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.

 

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in Friday’s day session, and in the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 25.45.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

With gold and the GDX now appearing to have completed their recent corrections it is unlikely that our current silver count is correct.

 

We suspect that all of wave (ii) ended at either the 21.81 or 21.96 lows.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.                              

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.663{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 3886.75.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 8 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at the current high of 3983.87, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 92.18.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 91.76.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

We have now rallied into our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the possible completion of all of wave -iv-, although this market could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

 

Wave -iv- may now be complete at the 92.53 high.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 91.44 to 92.00 looks to be corrective and if that is the case then we should now be heading lower again.

                                                            

Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.           

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 61.84.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 50.81;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

MAR 21 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week reaching a high of 1754.20, closing at 1741.70!

                                                                          

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1673.30 low and if that is the case then we should now be starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our next challenge will be a break and close above our red horizontal resistance at around 1770.00/1790.00 and then a further break above our red downtrend line that are shown on the Weekly Gold Chart.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of wave ^iii^ when we are sure that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!  

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this past week reaching a high of 26.74, closing at 26.32!  

                                                                  

We are not sure that wave ii of 3 is still underway but if it is, our retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Our current count is still suggesting that we are falling in wave c which has a minimum target of the wave a low of 21.81, but likely lower…somewhere within our above mentioned retracement zone.

 

However, based on what silver is doing compared to gold we are not so sure that silver is going to fall all the way back to the 21.00 level.

 

It could be possible that all of wave ii in silver ended at the 21.96 low and in that case we have already starting rallying in wave iii. This is not our alternate count.

 

We will give this market another week to see if this is what is really happening.   

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.754{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, closing at 1.732{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

It appears that the bear market in US interest is now over and it ended at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low!

 

Our count suggests (you might want to sit down for this one): 

 

Over the next couple of decades we are rallying back to the all-time high rates that we saw in the 1980’s!

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence. Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We expect to move higher in the weeks ahead as we head toward the 1.910{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level. After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 58.28, closing at 61.44.                               

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

It now looks like wave -i- is complete at the 67.98 high so we should now be falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 50.81

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.81.

 

We expect lower prices as wave -ii- continues to develop.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 21.36, closing at 22.02.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-=31.29.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                             

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching another all-time new high at 3983.87, and then we closed lower at 3913.10.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We are getting close to our projected endpoint for all of wave (iii).

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retracements between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

At current levels this should result in a 300 to 500 point correction in the SP500.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX moved generally sideways this past week, although we closed a bit higher at 91.93.

 

Wave -iii- is now complete at the 89.17 low and we are rallying in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

Wave -iv- now has a completed 3 wave rally from the wave -iii- low of 89.17.

 

We cannot rule the possibility that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 92.53 high and that we have now started to fall again in wave -v-.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past reaching a high of 999.86, closing at 995.80.

 

We are going to buy a 2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of Ewave Juniors Portfolio starter position in Aurion (AIRRF or AU.v).  Stoploss for half under the March lows, and the rest is a core position.  It’s down 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} from the summer highs and time for action!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ and a portfolio of key CDNX juniors, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 34.48, closing at 33.89!

 

Our retracement level for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

We continue to hold the major support line, and we believe that all of wave *ii* is likely complete at the 30.64 low.

 

We now need to be on guard for the start of a major rally in wave *iii*. If all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 30.64 low then our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is, incredibly, up at:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we recently added to our long positions at 31.50!

 

Bitcoin: 

 

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar2121bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 53269, although we closed higher at 59289.

 

Bitcoin started trading on this chart in 2014 and as you can see in our Bitcoin Weekly Chart that it has risen sharply fromm that inception date.

 

In the longer term Bitcoin appears to rising in an impulse fashion and we are getting close to finishing this first impulsive sequence with wave (3) of 1 or A ending at the 58349 high.

 

It looks like all of wave (4) ended at the 43665 low and we are now rallying in wave (5).

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave (5) rally at the current high of 61749.

 

This current wave (5) rally will complete a 5 wave impulsive sequence for this market. Either a wave 1 of A will be completed and the next move for this market will be a 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement correction in either wave 2 or B of the entire move in bitcoin.

 

For example, a 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement from the current high would see bitcoin drop to the 24000 level.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

march 19 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921gdx60.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 999.02, although we closed lower at 980.00.  

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. ended at the 867.26 low. We should now be working on the initial stages of wave (i) of -iii-.

 

In fact we are likely working on wave $i$ of (i) of -iii-,which could be complete at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$.  Wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 33.46, closing at 33.62.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Our next major resistance level will be our upper red downtrend line that connects 45.78, 41.81 and 39.01. It currently crosses at the 35.00/36.00 level. In the short term we are probably working on wave -i- of ^i^ of *iii*.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1716.90.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1744.50.

 

We are watching for what could be an imminent breakout above our blue downtrend line shown on our Daily Gold Chart!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows. The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 25.88.

 

 In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 26.34 level.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

With gold and the GDX now appearing to have completed their recent corrections it is now very unlikely that our current silver count is correct.

 

We suspect that all of wave (ii) ended at either the 21.81 or 21.96 lows.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.                                                                                                                                               

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.671{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 3910.86. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 8 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at the current high of 3983.87, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 91.98.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

We have now rallied into our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the possible completion of all of wave -iv-, although this market could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

 

Wave -iv- may now be complete at the 92.53 high.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 91.44 to 92.00 looks to be corrective and if that is the case then we should now be heading lower again.

                                                            

Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1921oil.png Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 58.33.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 61.34.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 50.81;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

ew mar 18 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 970.67, and then we closed higher at 997.54!                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. ended at the 867.26 low. We should now working on the initial stages of wave (i) of -iii-. In fact we are likely working on wave $i$ of (i) of -iii-. Wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 34.48, closing at 34.24!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Our next major resistance level will be our upper red downtrend line that connects 45.78, 41.81 and 39.01. In the short term we are probably working on wave -i- of ^i^ of *iii*.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1754.10.

 

After that high was made we moved lower, currently trading at the 1730.00 level.

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.

 

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 26.74.

 

After that high was made, we moved lower currently trading at the 26.25 level.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

With gold and the GDX now appearing to have completed their recent corrections it is now very unlikely that our current silver count is correct. We need more time to prove it, but we suspect that all of wave (ii) ended at either the 21.81 or 21.96 lows.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                               

 

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend sharply higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.754{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades.

 

The era of low interest rates, basis Ewave analysis, has now ended!

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching an all-time high of 3983.97. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 27 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14.

 

We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at yesterday’s high of 3960.27, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 91.29. After that low was made we moved higher and are currently trading at the 91.72 level.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

We have now rallied into our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the possible completion of all of wave -iv-, although this market could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

 

Wave -iv- may now be complete at the 92.53 high.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 91.44 to 92.00 looks to be corrective and if that is the case then we should now be heading lower again.

                                                            

Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1821oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 63.80 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) continues to move higher as we are now breaking above our major multi-year downtrend line that connects 147.27, 112.24, 107.68, 76.90 and 65.65. We have resistance at the $65.00/$66.00 level, but a breach of that would suggest a run to the $77.00 level before we get a more meaningful correction is wave $ii$. Wave $i$ may finally be ending at the 67.98 high.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

mar 17 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 999.86, although we closed lower at 977.87.                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. ended at the 867.26 low. We should now working on the initial stages of wave (i) of -iii-. In fact we are likely working on wave $i$ of (i) of -iii-. Wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and our key juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session, although we closed marginally lower at 33.49.

 

It is finally starting to look like our lengthy wave *ii* correction has ended at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.  

 

We have now broken and closed above resistance at the 33.25 low, which is another good sign for the bulls.

 

The final confirmation of the end of this diagonal triangle and the end of wave ^ii^ will come when we trade above the wave -iv- high of 34.35.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii*, which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1740.50. After that high was made, we moved lower reaching a low of 1724.90.

 

In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching ahigh of 1736.70, but have since pulled back once again to currently trading at the 1727.00 level.

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.

 

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 25.82. After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of  26.14, but we pulled back again to currently be trading at the 25.93 level.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart.

 

Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

With gold and the GDX now appearing to have completed their recent corrections it is now very unlikely that our current silver count is correct.

We suspect that all of wave (ii) ended at either the 21.81 or 21.96 lows.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                  

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.676{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We have now reached our maximum retracement level for our current count to remain valid which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}= 1.580{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.   

 

As shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart we appear to have an ending diagonal triangle formation, which is almost complete. If this formation is valid then we should now see us drop below the lower red trendline which crosses at 1.403{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and 1.497{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

This drop should complete all of wave -c and ^ii^.

 

The next few days should be interesting in this market!               

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we must now start to turn lower, otherwise we will need to assume that a major multi-decade low in interest rates has been made at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. Rates would now be heading higher for many years to come.

 

Our alternate count is now shown on the US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart and this count is suggesting that we are heading to the 1.91{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level in wave (iii), before we see a meaningful correction in wave (iv).        

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721sp1120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching an all-time high of 3981.04, although we closed marginally lower at 3962.71. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 17 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

It looks like all of wave -iv- ended at the 3723.45 low and we are now rallying in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14.

 

We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at yesterday’s high of 3960.27, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon. It could come today, based on that the FED says.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 92.05. In the overnight session we have moved sideways, currently trading at the 91.97 level.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

We have now rallied into our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the possible completion of all of wave -iv-, although this market could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

Wave -iv- may now be complete at the 92.53 high. On the Intraday Chart the rally from 91.44 to 92.00 looks to be corrective and if that is the case then we should now be heading lower again.

                                                            

Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1721oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 63.81. In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching ahigh of 65.33, but after making that high we dropped again to currently be trading 64.02 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) continues to move higher as we are now breaking above our major multi-year downtrend line that connects 147.27, 112.24, 107.68, 76.90 and 65.65. We have resistance at the $65.00/$66.00 level, but a breach of that would suggest a run to the $77.00 level before we get a more meaningful correction is wave $ii$. Wave $i$ may finally be ending at the 67.98 high.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

 

mar 16 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar16cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 996.33 and again closing on its high of 996.33.          

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

We are now working on the assumptions that all of wave -ii- of .iii. ended at the 867.26 low. We are now therefore working on the initial stages of wave (i) of -iii-. In fact we are working on wave $i$ of (i) of -iii-. Wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

Longer term, we should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 33.72, closing at 33.62.

 

It is finally starting to look like our lengthy wave *ii* correction has ended at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.  

 

In yesterday’s trading we broke and closed above resistance at the 33.25 low, which is another good sign for the bulls.

 

The final confirmation of the end of this diagonal triangle and the end of wave ^ii^ will come when we trade above the wave -iv- high of 34.35.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii*, which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.                                   

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1736.00.

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.

The final confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the current low will be a break and close above 1815.20 high of the larger ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 26.41.

 

We continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Within wave (ii), wave -b- of (i) of our irregular type correction ended at the 30.35 high. We should now be dropping in wave -c-, as shown on our Daily Silver Chart. Our minimum target for the end of wave -c- is the wave -a- low of 21.81, but we expect we should drop lower into our retracement level for all of wave (ii) which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

With gold and the GDX now appearing to have completed their recent corrections it is now very unlikely that our current silver count is correct. We will need to take another look, but we suspect that all of wave (ii) ended at either the 21.81 or 21.96 lows.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                              

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.588{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We have now reached our maximum retracement level for our current count to remain valid which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}= 1.580{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.   

 

As shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart we appear to have an ending diagonal triangle formation, which has is complete. If this formation is valid then we should now see us drop below the lower red trendline which crosses at 1.403{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and 1.497{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. This drop should complete all of wave -c and ^ii^. The next few days should be interesting in this market.                 

 

For our current analysis to remain valid we must now start to turn lower, otherwise we will need to assume that a major multi-decade low in interest rates has been made at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. Rates would now be heading higher for many years to come.

 

Our alternate count is now shown on the US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart and this count is suggesting that we are heading to the 1.91{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level in wave (iii), before we see a meaningful correction in wave (iv).        

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621spd.png

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621sp120.png

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 moved higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching an all-time high of 3970.08. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 5 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

It looks like all of wave -iv- ended at the 3723.45 low and we are now rallying in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14.

 

We have already satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -v- and (iii) at yesterday’s high of 3960.27, so we need to be guard for the completion of all of wave (iii) soon.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continues early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 92.00. After that high was made we moved lower to currently be trading at the 91.69 level.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 91.95.

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 93.68.

 

We have now rallied into our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the possible completion of all of wave -iv-, although this market could still move higher to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level before all of wave -iv- ends.

 

Wave -iv- may now be complete at the 92.53 high. On the Intraday Chart the rally from 91.44 to 92.00 looks to be corrective and if that is the case then we should now be heading lower again.

                                                            

Other projections for the completion of wave -iv- are:

 

*c* =*a* = 92.11.

*c* = 1.618*a* = 93.68.       

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v-.                                                                                                            

-.

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ewmar1621oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 64.17. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 64.55 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

Wave $i$ of (iii) continues to move higher as we are now breaking above our major multi-year downtrend line that connects 147.27, 112.24, 107.68, 76.90 and 65.65.

 

We have resistance at the $65.00/$66.00 level, but a breach of that would suggest a run to the $77.00 level before we get a more meaningful correction is wave $ii$. Wave $i$ may finally be ending at the 67.98 high.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew