jan 25 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1200.00, at the time that this Post was being written. On the Intraday Chart, form the 1218.80 high we appear to have an incomplete 3 wave correction.

This 3 wave correction needs to head back to the 1995.00 low to become complete from an EWaves point of view.

 

We still expect further upside within our current wave *i*, although we cannot now rule the possibility at all of wave *i* ended at the 1219.50 high and we are now starting a larger wave *ii* correction. 

A break and close above the 1220.00 level should see a quick run to the 1245.00 level, which could mark the end of wave *i*, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Currently on the Intraday Chart the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks corrective which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1219.50 high, but we need to be on guard for end of wave *i* soon, unless it extends.

 

As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  A run to resistance at the 1244.00 level seems a likely place for wave *i* to end.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

.i.:

*i* = 1219.50, if complete;

*ii* correction is next, after wave *i* ends.

 

When wave *i* ends we should expect wave *ii* to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *i* rally.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low., and we are now rallying in the early stages of wave -iii-.We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session reaching a low of 16.80, at the time that this Post was being written. A break and close above the 17.29 high, would likely see silver rally sharply higher in an extending wave ^i^ rally.

 

Silver is still rallying in wave ^i^ of .i. of -iii-, but we need to be on guard for the possibility that all of wave ^i^ ended at the 17.36 high, and that wave ^ii^ has now begun.

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91;

-iii-=2.618-i-=35.47.

 

Like gold wave -iii- is silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart as it will take the same form as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

^i^ = 17.36, if complete;

^ii^ drop is next after wave ^i^ ends. Wave ^ii^ is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude rallied to 53.56 in yesterday’s day session and then soften in the overnight session to reach a low of 52.56, at the time that this Post was being written.  

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. We have now completed the minimum requirements for our wave $b$ bearish triangle, at the 53.67 high.

Nothing says that this bearish triangle cannot expand and extend in the next couple of days, but it does not need. If our bearish wave $b$ triangle is complete at the 53.67 high then we should now expect crude to fall in wave $c$, to complete all of wave ^ii^. A rally now above the 55.24 high would eliminate this bearish wave $b$ triangle.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ triangle = 53.67, if complete;

$c$ drop to come after wave $b$ ends, to complete all of wave ^ii^, with a minimum target of 49.95.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated our Weekly Crude Chart.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching another all-time new high and in the overnight session that rally continued as the S&P Futures are up about 10 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end of for all of wave -iii- which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for end of the -iii- and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX traded sideways in yesterday’s days session, but in the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 99.81, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

If our current analysis is correct, we should see the USDX fall sharply this week in wave ^iii^ of *iii*.  A drop to 99.25 seems likely now.

 

Our current count for wave (c) and the start of iii is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii*:

^i^ = 100.70;

^ii^ = 101.71;

^iii^ is now underway.

 

Projections for wave *iii* are:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=98.88;

*iii*=2.618*i*=96.36.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.80!

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was a little higher in yesterday’s days session reaching a high of 3.357, and in the overnight session NG remained at those levels, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

In the last End of Week Post we revised our count to suggest that all of wave -i- had ended at the 3.90 high that we were now falling in an incomplete wave –ii-.

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart we have now changed to that count. Expect lower prices, within an incomplete wave *c* of -ii- drop. WE are now watching the possibility that wave *b* did NOT end at the 3.513 high and it is becoming a bearish triangle.

 

Our updated count for all of wave c is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.901;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.099

*b* = 3.513;

*c* is still underway with a minimum target of 3.099, to complete all of wave -ii-.

-iii- to start after wave -ii- ends.

 

We will update our first wave -iii- projection after wave -ii- ends.

 

We will add to our long NG positions at 3.07.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 2.54, and will add at 3.07!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session, even though gold was lower!

 If wave *i* is not complete in gold at the 1219.50 high, then we expect further gains in wave (i), as shown on the Daily GDX Chart.

 

If wave *i* in gold is complete at the 1218.80 high then wave (i) in the GDX is complete at the the current highs, and wave (ii) is about to begin. If wave (ii) is underway then we expect that it will retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends.

 

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98

 

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  

 

Long Term Update:

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!