jan 3 morning post!

 

 

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments:

 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320gold.png Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session, and we just ripped to $1554 on the wild action in Iraq!

 

We have updated the internal wave structure within wave *iv* to suggest that it now ended at the 1446.00, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

We have also modified where we think wave *iii* ended … now at 1565.00 versus 1566.20.

 

These changes are all cosmetic and do not change the current direction of gold!!

 

We are now rallying in wave *v*, and we have shown its internal wave structure on the Daily Gold Chart. We believe that we are now rallying !iii! of $iii$, which could be complete at the 1554.00 high, although a further extension to the 1565/1570 level could be possible before all of wave !iii! ends. Upon completion of wave !iii! we expect small correction in wave !iv!, before we rally again in wave !v! to complete all of wave $iii$.

 

One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver also blasted higher in yesterday’s day session, and now we are at 18.32!

                                                                                                                                              

We have started to rally in wave ^iii^, and are now getting close to completing all of wave $i$ of ^iii^, as shown on the daily Silver Chart.

 

Wave $i$ could be complete at the 18.32 high or an extension to the 18.80/18.85 level could be possible before it ends.

 

Upon completion of wave $i$, we expect wave $ii$ correction.

 

Our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320oil.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and sharply higher in the overnight session due to the US missile attack at the Baghdad Airport attack. We reached a high in the overnight session of 64.08.

 

Our wave (b) of b bearish triangle is now extending, as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. We are now rallying in wave $c$ of *c*. Our current wave (b) bearish triangle will be eliminated if we continue to rally above the 66.60 high.

 

Once wave *c* ends we should expect a wave *d* drop that will be followed by a wave *e* rally to complete all of the wave (b) bearish triangle.   

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is still underway, and we should see us reach our minimum target of 34.87, in the next day or so. Once wave (ii) ends we should see Suncor start to drop sharply in wave (iii).

 

Trading Recommendation: Short with a 60.00 call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short with a 60 call as a stop!                                

  

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320bond.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.823{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

It is now looking like wave (iv) is still underway and becoming more complex. At the moment we are not sure which pattern wave (iv) is following, but a run back to the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high still looks likely.

 

Once wave (iv) ends we suspect that wave (v) has a minimum target of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but we suspect a drop to 1.000{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} should be expected.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320spd.png 120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session as we reached another all-time new high of 3258.14. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 31 points.

 

On the 120 Min SP500 Chart we have shown that we are now rallying in wave $v$ of -c-, if our bearish count alternate count is correct.

 

It could finally be possible that all of wave $v$ of -c- is now complete at the 3258.14 high and that a sharp drop has now begun in wave (c) of iv.

 

Let’s see if we get follow-through into the close and next week!

 

The SP500 has continues to reach all time new highs, but we are still thinking that the bearish counts case is also possible. On our Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we have shown our alternate bearish count that is suggesting the wave -b- has become a double 3 corrective wave pattern.

 

For now, our current bullish is still preferred. Our subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short at 2950.0, with a call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short at 2950.00, with a call as stop! 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 96.80.

 

We are waiting for sharp break below our lower red trend line connecting 95.17 and 95.36.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of sharp wave ^iii^ lower. Our retracement levels for all wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.11;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.40.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at 99.33. Once wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp wave (iii) drop will be the next big event in this market.

 

The start of our wave (iii) drop in the USDX will likely see the rally in gold and silver start to accelerate higher again.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 100.00.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00! 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320cdnx.png  

 

 

The CDNX was, yes, AGAIN sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session, and we touched 587.87!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts.

 

We should now be heading back to the wave -a- high of 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv. Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan320gdx.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjand20gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a low of 29.11. We expect it will be sharply higher today!!

 

We have started to rally in wave (v) as shown on the Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts.

 

A run to the 30.95 high appears likely now….

 

Wave (v) is expected to consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence of which we are currently working on wave $i$.

 

With our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew