jan 31 morning post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE MORNING POST!

 

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1208.70, at the time that this Post was being written.

Our only concern with declaring wave *ii* complete at the 1179.50 low is that it fell short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level.    

 

We can now conclude that all of wave *i* ended at the 1218.90 high and that we are now falling in our expected wave *ii* correction.

 

 We do note that gold has broken above the down trend line connecting 1217.50, 1207.40, 1202.30, 1198.00, and 1185.40, which could suggest that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 1179.50 low.

This is still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. The highest probability trades in a corrective wave occur when we see at least a 3 wave pattern on the Intraday/Daily Chart and we at least reach our minimum retracement levels, which in this case would be the 1172 area. When we fail to reach our minimum retracement level within the first 3 wave pattern it usually suggests that the correction could become more complex.

 

Our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels for the end of wave *ii* are shown on the Daily Gold Chart and are as follows:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1171.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1160.40.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

.i.:

*i* = 1218.90;

*ii* = 1179.50, if complete, but we expect further weakness, as this wave may become more complex.

*iii* rally after wave *ii* ends. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave *ii* when we are sure that wave *ii* is complete.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low, and we are now rallying in the early stages of wave -iii-. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave

-iii-.  

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver is much stronger than gold at the moment. Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session reaching a high of 17.52, at the time that this Post was being written. We did not reach our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of wave ^ii^ in silver and we have now broken above the wave ^i^ high of 17.36. It is looking like all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 16.64 low, but we will give this market one more day to confirm this. If wave ^ii^ in sliver ended at 16.64 then wave *ii* in gold ended at 1179.50.  

 

We can now conclude that all of wave ^i^ of .i. of -iii-, is complete at the 17.36 high and that we are now falling in our expected wave ^ii^ correction, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart, As with our comments on gold, it might be possible that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 16.64 low. It is also possible that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex, for the same reasons that we explained in the gold commentary above.   Our retracements levels for all of wave ^ii^ are;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 16.52;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 16.32.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

^i^ = 17.36;

^ii^ = 16.64, if complete, but we believe it could now be complete.

^iii^ rally after wave ^ii^ ends. We will provide our projections for the end of wave ^iii^ when we are sure that wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- are:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91;

-iii-=2.618-i-=35.47.

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching 52.24. In the overnight session crude was a little higher reaching 52.92, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete.

 

We have now completed the minimum requirements for our wave $b$ bearish triangle, but it looks like it might be extending and expanding as triangles usually do. It could also be complete at the 54.06 high.

 

A rally now above the 55.24 high would eliminate this bearish wave $b$ triangle. Upon completion of our wave $b$ triangle we expect one more drop in wave $c$ to complete all of wave ^ii^.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ triangle = 54.06, if complete;

$c$ drop to come after wave $b$ ends, to complete all of wave ^ii^, with a minimum target of 49.95.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was lower in yesterday’s day session and we have now have a 3 day island reversal on the Daily S&P Chart. In the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 5 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The island reversal might the signal that confirms that our wave -iii- rally is now compete at the 230.99 high and that a steep wave –iv- drop will be the next big event in this market.  

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

After reaching a high of 101.01 in yesterday’s overnight session the USDX moved lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session reaching a low of 99.90, at the time that this Post was being written. In yesterday’s Morning Post we said this: ”On the Intraday Chart the rally from 99.77 to the current high of 101.01 looks like a 3 wave pattern, which when it ends suggests that the USDX will be heading lower again.

 

We did indeed head lower.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rallies look corrective and the setbacks impulsive which suggests that this market is heading much lower. This is called nested waves which could be predicting a COLLAPSE in the USDX… in the near future.

 

If our current analysis is correct, we should see the USDX fall in the continuation of our wave ^iii^ of *iii*. 

A drop to 99.25 seems likely now.

 

Our current count for wave (c) and the start of iii is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii*:

^i^ = 100.70;

^ii^ = 101.71;

^iii^ is now underway. Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is: ^iii^=1.618^i^=97.04.

 

Projections for wave *iii* are:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=98.88;

*iii*=2.618*i*=96.36.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high. We are now falling in wave iii.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.80!

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a low of 3.142, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

It is now looking like wave *b* did not ended at the 3.513 high and that we are either going back to that level in a 3 wave rally that started at the 3.099 low, or that wave *b* is becoming a bearish triangle. Both of these options still remain valid, but it could be possible that all of wave *b* ended at the 3.497 high, as shown on the Daily NG Chart. The next few days of trading should provide us with our answer.

 

Our updated count for all of wave c is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.901;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.099

*b* = 3.513, if complete;

*c* is still underway with a minimum target of 3.099, to complete all of wave -ii-, if wave *b* ended at the 3.513 high.

-iii- to start after wave -ii- ends.

 

We will update our first wave -iii- projection after wave -ii- ends.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 2.54, and will add at 3.07!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was marginally lower in yesterday’s day session. As we said in yesterday’s Morning Post: “we did not have much of correction in its wave (ii),  if wave *ii* in gold is now complete.” We expect lower prices in the days ahead, as we doubt that all of wave (ii) is complete. Our retracement levels for the of wave (ii) are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.42;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.72.

 

Upon completion of wave (ii) we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our projections foe the end of wave (iii) when we are sure that wave (ii) is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98

 

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions. 

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!