jan 5 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold traded sideways in yesterday’s day session, but in the overnight session we moved higher reaching 1179.90, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The rally in gold last week suggested to us that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 1124.50 high and that we have started our wave -iii- rally.

On the Intraday Chart the rally from the 1124.50 low to the current high of 1179.90 is taking on an impulsive look which is a very good sign for the bulls.

Also, so far the impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1179.90 high, so we are expecting gold will continue to move higher over the next couple of days!

We now want to see gold start to accelerate higher to make sure that this current 3 wave rally off of the 1124.50 low becomes a 5 wave impulsive sequence.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is :

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80.

 

We expect that wave -iii- will be a very powerful move higher, although it will still consist of 5 distinct subdivisions…the impulsive sequence.

 

We have cancelled our long positions adder trade.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.50 low. If that is true then 2017 will see gold rally sharply in wave -iii-.  

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver traded sideways with gold in yesterday’s day session but in the overnight session silver removed higher and reached 16.75, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

Silver has now completed all of its wave -ii- at the 15.68 low and we have now broken and closed above the down trend line connecting 19.01 and 17.29. Like gold we should now expect silver to be rallying in a very sharp rally in wave -iii-.

 

Our initial projections for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91.

 

Like gold wave -iii- is silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence.

 

We have raised our stops to 15.67.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session reaching a high of53.85, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. We suspect that wave $b$ is now complete at the 55.24 high and we are now falling in our expected wave $c$ drop.

It is looking like wave $c$ is going to become a 5 wave impulsive sequence, which we have added to our labelling below. The current rally is a correction of the wave !i! drop. This final drop will complete all of wave ^ii^.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24;

$c$:

!i! = 52.17;

!ii! = 53.85, if complete, with retracements levels of: 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} =53.70 and 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}=54.07. We have now entered that retracement zone.

!iii! drop will start after our wave !ii! corrective rally ends.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was higher in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 4 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

It is now looking like the S&P is going to make one more new high above the current high of 2277.53, before all of our current wave -iii- ends. We did suggest that this could happen in previous posts.

Upon completion of wave -iii- we expect a major drop in wave –iv- will begin as shown on the daily S&P Chart.

 

We will continue to hold our current short positions and have bought 2280 calls as stops.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2214.81 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was generally stable in yesterday’s day session but in the overnight we moved lower reaching 101.90, at the time that this Post was being written.    

 

As you can see on the Daily USDX Chart a break below the 101.70 high would confirm that a major top in the USDX has been achieved at the 103.81 high and that this market is going sharply lower. A return now back to the 103.81 high would suggest that the USDX is going higher. We have lowered our stops to 103.85.

 

We believe that a major top in the USDX may now be at hand.

 

Our current count for all of our third wave (c) is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, if complete, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

As you can see on the previously attached Weekly USDX Chart it looks like our multi-year wave ii correction has become a triple 3 wave pattern. We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and are looking for a major top in the next number of weeks or a month or so.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.85!

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was marginally lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session reaching a low of 3.236, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear five wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.

 

We believe that wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 3.78 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which as minimum will be a 3 wave drop. Wave  *a* ended at 3.243 low and wave *b* of -ii- at 3.901.

 

On the Daily NG Chart we have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii-, but we are still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 3.17, so we expect further downside before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.17;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.02

 

Our current count for all of wave C is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.777, if complete;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c* drop is now underway, to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: Going long at 3.015, risking to 2.54!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and we expect that trend to continue. Our first projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)= $49.95!

 

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  

 

Our updated count for wave 2 is:

 

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c:

(i) = 22.50;

(ii) = 25.93;

(iii) = 20.14;

(iv) = 21.74;

(v) = 18.68, to complete all of wave c and wave 2.

Wave 3 rally is now begun.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 may now be complete at the 18.68 low also.  

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops~