jan 9 morning post!



Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2


Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:


Gold was higher in the overnight session reaching 1181.80, at the time that this Post was being written.


Currently on the Intraday Chart the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks corrective which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1185.60 high, so we are expecting gold will continue to move higher over the next couple of days. As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :





Longer Term Update:


Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.


Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!




Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


Silver was higher in the overnight session, reaching a high of 16.63, at the time that this Post was being written.


Like gold we should now expect silver to be rallying in a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. Like gold, we should still be rallying in wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is:





Like gold wave -iii- is silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart as it will take the same form as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.


Long Term Update:


We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;


1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.


Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!




Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2


Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


Crude was lower in the overnight session, reaching 52.84, at the time that this Post was being written.


As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete.


We suspect that wave $b$ is now complete at the 55.24 high and we are now falling in our expected wave $c$ drop. It is looking like wave $c$ is going to become a 5 wave impulsive sequence, which we have added to our labelling below.


The current rally is a correction of the wave !i! drop. Wave !ii! is likely complete now at the 54.30 high. This final wave $c$ drop should complete all of wave ^ii^.


Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.


Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:


*i* = 49.36;


^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;


^i^ = 54.51;


$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24;


!i! = 52.17;

!ii! = 54.30, if complete, with retracements levels of: 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} =53.70 and 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}=54.07. We have now entered that retracement zone, and we should start to turn down anytime, if our current analysis is correct.

!iii! drop will start after our wave !ii! corrective rally ends.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.


Some other projections:


.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;


Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.


Long Term Update:


We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated our Weekly Crude Chart.


Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!




Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
Short Term Update:


The S&P Futures are down about 2 points in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written.


The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end of for all of wave -iii- which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for end of the -iii- and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-.


This stock market appears to have many similarities to the 1987 top, and we know how that rally ended.


The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.


Long Term Update:


Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.


Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!




Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


The USDX reached a high of 102.49 in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written.


On the Intraday Chart we can see a 5 wave impulsive drop from 103.81 to 101.30, so we are now expect a corrective rally for that drop. We have labeled the initial drop to 101.30 as wave *i* and the current rally as wave *ii*. Retracement levels for wave *ii* are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 102.56;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 102.85.


Since our current high for this corrective rally is 102.49, we expect some further upside before all of wave *ii* ends and another sharp drop in wave *iii* begins.


We expect that the USDX will now move sharply lower in 2017, within a multi-year wave iii drop.


Our current count for wave (c) and the start of iii is:


-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;


*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.


*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.49, if complete, which should end with our retracement levels identified above.

*iii* drop is next after wave *ii* ends.


Long Term Trading Update:


We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.


Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.85!




Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


NG was lower in the overnight session reaching 3.182, at the time that this Post was being written.


As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear five wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.


The wave -ii- correction in NG could be complete at the 3.175 low, but we are still waiting for confirmation. In our last Weekend Post we said this: “On The Intraday Chart the rally from 3.174 to 3.345 looks like a 3 wave affair, which is bearish and is suggesting that NG will revisit the 3.175 low again before all of wave -ii- ends.” This is now happening.


If wave -ii- is complete then we should expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii- as the next big event in this market.


Retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.17;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.02


Our current count for all of wave C is:





-i- = 3.777, if complete;


*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c*= 3.175, if complete, to complete all of wave -ii-.


Long Term Trading Update:


It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.


Active Trading Positions: Going long at 3.015, risking to 2.54!




GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792


Short Term Update:


The GDX should continue to move higher with gold, as we are working the initial subdivisions of wave 3.


We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends.


The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:





As with gold and silver, this wave 3 impulsive sequence should consist of 5 subdivisions.


Long Term Update:


In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!