july 29 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 908.79, and closing on its high of 908.79!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64. We had thought all of wave -ii ended at the 867.26 low, but that does not appear to be the case as wave -ii- has become much more complex with a bearish triangle formation embedded within.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53

61.8% = 836.63.

 

We are currently dropping in wave (c) of -ii- which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 867.26, which we still have not reached. We will give this market more time before we confirm that all of wave (c ) and -ii- are complete at the current low of 868.40. A rally now above the 918.87 low would confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to now have a 3 wave corrective pattern in place from 913.58 to the current low of 892.89. If this observation is correct then once this little correction ends we should start to move higher again, as we still need to break the 918.87 low to confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low.

 

We believe that most of wave -ii- is almost complete and once it ends we expect a sharp wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921gdx60.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 34.19, and closing on it high of 34.19!

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ of *iii* is complete at the 32.87 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^. Our first projection for the completion of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 47.50.

 

Our next short term resistance levels are 34.50 and then 35.00/35.25, which we could break today!

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Daily Chart, as we are now heading to the neckline.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold had bit of radical day as we initially moved sideways then after the FED comments we moved lower reaching a low of 1790.10. After that low we made we moved higher and that trend higher has  continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1827.90!

 

We are working on a very large wave .iv. of -iii- triangle that we assuming is complete at the 1750.10 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to move higher in wave .v., which should be a very sharp thrust. Our current projection for the end of all of wave .v. and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 2535.10.

 

Within wave .v. we are starting to work on wave *i* and within wave *i* we think all of wave ^i^ ended at the 1835.00 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^ which is also complete at the 1790.10 low. We are therefore starting to rally higher in wave ^iii^, which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1928.10.

 

Next short term resistance is the 1835.00 high, which we could reach today.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 25.66!

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is now complete at the 24.51 low. If that is case then we should be working on the initial stages of our sharp wave (v) thrust. Within wave (v) we are *i* of -i- of (v).

 

Next short term resistance is at the current overnight high of 25.66, which we expect to break through today. After that next resistance will be at the 26.60 level.

 

Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.278%. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1.263% level!

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our upper retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*. After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921spd.png  

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921sp120.png  

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session, closing just marginally lower at 4400.64. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 9 points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 91.98!

 

The ending diagonal triangle formation is complete at the 93.20 high and so is our large wave *iv* bearish triangle formation. We are now heading lower in wave *v* of -iii-.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

We suspect that the drop in the USDX should start to accelerate over the next couple of weeks.  

 

We have lowered our stop to the top of the wave *iv* triangle at 93.21.  

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.21.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.21! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2921oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued for most of the overnight session as we reached a high of 73.27!

 

We have updated our count to suggest that we are still moving higher in wave i of C, and with wave i, we now think that all of wave (iii) ended at 67.98, and we are now working on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within wave (iv) we think that we completed wave (c) at the 65.01 low and that we are now rallying in wave (d). Only a break above the wave (b) high of 76.98 would eliminate this current bullish triangle. After wave (d) ends we expect a drop in wave (e) to complete all of the wave (iv) bullish triangle.    

                                                                                                               

Suncor: We think that wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 19.56, which is still above our 50% retracement level, so we suspect that all of wave (ii) may not be complete at that low. After wave (ii) ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave (iii), and we will provide our initial projection for its completion when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew