may 24 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew

 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 957.47, closing at 957.22.

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, although we closed lower at 39.29.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we continue to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has a current projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.70     

 

Within wave -iii-, we now be rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

On our 60 Min Intraday Chart we shown a possible internal wave count for all of wave $iii$.  This count is suggesting that all of wave !iv! of $iii$ ended 38.60, but our current wave !iii! rally appears to be too short relative to wave !i!.

Based on what we have shown the next move in this market will be higher in wave !v! to $iii$ heading to our 42.70 projected endpoint, but we do have concerns about the shortness of our current wave !iii! of $iii$.

 

The bottom line: Wave $iii$ count be subdividing even further, which is very bullish. For now we will leave this count as is but expect it will be modified.  

 

We believe our test of the 39.01 resistance level is now complete and we should now be heading higher again, to our next resistance of 41.13/41.81.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be updating our long term gold charts this week (May 17th):

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. WE are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in Friday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 1881.90 level.

 

On the Intraday Chart gold appears to be working on a bullish triangle formation which is nearing completion, so if this observation is correct, we should thrust higher and very soon!

 

The end of this bullish triangle may have occurred at the 1875.70 low.                                                                                         

 

We continue to rally in and extending wave -iii- which should be heading to our next projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

On our Daily Gold Chart we have shown the likely subdivisions for all of wave -iii- and within wave -iii- we are now working on wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 1938.10.

 

We have also now broken above our major green downtrend line connecting 2077.90 and 1962.50. Gold has lots of resistance levels to break at these prices and our next horizontal resistance is at the 1879 level.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421gold.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 27.27. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a 27.87.

 

Longer term we continue to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 28.89 to 27.27 looks to be corrective, which I suggesting higher prices lie ahead once this corrective pattern ends.

 

We have failed to stay above the 28.10/28.50 resistance level on this first attempt, but we suspect that this setback will be temporary.

 

Our next challenge to the 28.10/28.50 resistance level will be successful and then after that we are heading to our next resistance level at 29.91/30.35.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1.613%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1.620% level.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was initially higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 4188.72, although we closed marginally lower at 4155.86.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 18 points!

 

All of wave -v- of (iii) is now complete at 4236.39 high. We are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

The expected drop in wave (iv) should be between 300 and 550 points.

 

It is still to early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to develop into.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Short will calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short will calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session reaching ahigh of 90.16.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 89.85.

 

We continue to fall in wave -v- and are starting to get close to our minimum target for its completion at the 89.17 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart the small rally from 89.68 to the current high of 90.28 looks corrective which is suggesting lower prices lie ahead after this corrective rally ends. We suspect it will fall much further, however.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2421oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 64.90.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, as we continue to rally higher in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may now be complete at the 67.00 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew