OCT 11 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 881.05, closing at 877.48!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64 and once again it looks like wave -ii- is still not complete and has become even more complex than before.

 

It now appears that we have a complex 3 wave corrective pattern, with wave (c) turning into a ending diagonal triangle formation, which still looks to be underway. Only a break of the upper red trendline connecting 935.91 and 928.75 would confirm that all of wave (c) and -ii- are complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53;

61.8% = 836.63.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an initial projection for its completion after we believe that all of wave -ii-has ended.

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Friday’s trading reaching a high of 31.36, closing at 30.67!

 

It looks like a very complex triple 3 wave corrective pattern is still underway within wave *ii*. Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

 

50% = 30.48;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

We are now within our retracement zone, so we now need to be on guard for the completion of all of this very length wave *ii* correction and the start of a multiple month wave *iii* rally.  

 

Only a break and close above our upper blue down trendline will confirm that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.83 low. In the shorter term a break and close above our red horizontal trendline running around the 30.65/30.70 level would be a very encouraging sign for the bulls, which we challenged in yesterday’s trading session.

 

We are very closing in accomplishing both of these challenges, which is very good sign for the bulls.

 

We will update our 60 Min GDX after we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.     

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated September 01,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated August 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially higher in Friday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1782.40. After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1751.20. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1755.60 level!

 

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now correcting in a wave -iv- bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. Within wave -iv- we completed all of wave .c. at the 1675.90 low and we are now rallying in wave .d.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for this current triangle pattern to remain valid. Remember that legs of triangle formations are full of overlapping waves, so the internal wave structure is sometimes difficult to analysis in real time.

 

Within wave .d., it now looks like wave $a$ ended at 1836.90, and wave $b$ has now exceeded our 61.8% level at the 1721.10 low. Our last retracement level for all of wave $b$ is:

 

78.6% = 1710.40.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ and the start of anther rally in wave $c$ of .d. Another projection for the end of wave $c$ is:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 1882.80.

 

We have now broken and closed above our purple downtrend, so we should start to move higher now in wave $c$, and on the Intraday Chart the rally form 1721.10 to 1782.40 is a completed impulsive sequence. We are now correcting that impulsive move higher and have the following retracement levels for its completion:

 

50% = 1751.80;

61.6% = 1744.50.

 

We have reached our 50% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of this correction and that start of another rally in gold.

 

Another outside possibility is that all of wave .d. ended at 1836.90 and all of wave .e. at 1721.10. This would mean that all of wave -iv- is completed and that the next rally in gold will be substantial thrust higher in wave -v-.

 

This would create a very non-symmetric triangle, although triangles do not have to look pretty. This will be our alternate count for now.

 

Also note the potential head and shoulder bottom on our Daily Gold Chart.

                               

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session, reaching a high of 23.22. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 22.51!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave i ended at the 29.89 high and that the lengthy corrective wave ii pattern is now almost complete. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We are still a bit short of our minimum retracement level for all of wave ii, so we could see some further weakness before all of wave ii ends, but we do not have to. This updated count is very good news for the bulls in that once this correction ends silver will be heading sharply higher in wave iii. Remember the same psychological feeling that we mentioned in gold above also apply to this wave ii pattern.

 

On the Intraday Chart silver looks to have completed an impulsive sequence from 21.41 to 23.22, and we are now correcting that impulsive move, which has retracement levels as follows:

 

50% = 22.32;

61.8% =22.10.

 

We are still a little short of our 50% retracement level so we could see further weakness, before silver starts to move higher again.

 

Wave ii has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in Friday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1.617%. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 1.612% level!

 

It now looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3 wave pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low. We are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 1.630%.

 

We need to be on guard for the completion of wave $b$ very soon now.

 

The rally from the wave *a* low of 1.128% looks corrective, so we believe that once wave *b* ends we expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%.  Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct1121spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoct1121sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4386.92. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are lower by about 21 points!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85, and we are now falling in wave (iv) which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% =4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

It is still much too early to determine what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will take.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 93.93. After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 94.31!

 

Our large wave *iv* bearish triangle is expanding and extending again, although it looks like all of wave $c$ of *iv* may be complete at the 94.52 high. If that is the case then we should be now be moving lower in wave $d$.

 

For our current bearish triangle to remain valid wave $c$ cannot rally above the wave $a$ high of 94.80. Wave $d$ which cannot trade below the wave $b$ low of 89.17.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1121oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 82.17!

 

Our large bullish wave (iv) triangle is complete at the 69.39 low and we are now thrusting higher in wave (v) of i as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Based on the size of the bullish triangle we should expect a thrust in the order of $10 to $15, which should see wave i end around the $80/90 level.

                                                                                              

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew