All posts by captainewave

APR 22 MORNING POST!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 929.16, closing at 928.91! 

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

We have now exceeded our 61.8% retracement level so, if our current analysis for wave $ii$ is correct, we should expect it’s completion very soon, likely at the 909.06 low. If that is the case then we should see the CNDX start to move starting higher in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projected endpoint for all of wave $iii$, after we believe that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 36.83 and closing on its high of 36.83!

 

We are now starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Last week we aggressively broke above our seven (7) month upper red downtrend line that has defined the upper bound of our wave *ii* correction. In the days ahead we may drop back to test this breakout, but we do not have to, before we continue to move sharply higher.

 

We should now be heading higher to at least reach our first projected endpoint for wave -iii- at the 38.00 level.                         

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1798.40. In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 1783.40.

                                                                                           

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. We have now exceeded our first projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

We are looking at wave -iii- continuing to move higher to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

In the last day or so it looks like we successfully tested the breakout of our horizontal red trendline connecting the lows at 1767.20 and 1759.00. We expect higher price ahead with next resistance at the 1815.00 level..

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr221si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 26.73. In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 26.36.

 

Longer term all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*. We have now reached our next resistance level of 26.74 which expect to break through today or tomorrow, after which next resistance will be 28.34.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session where we are currently trading at the 1.566% level!

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4175.02. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 5 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 91.43. After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 90.98!

 

All of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  

 

We should continue to drop.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2221oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 60.62!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, and all or most of wave ^b^ at the 64.38. We also had a key daily reversal lower in yesterday’s trading session which likely marks the end of wave ^b^. We should now be dropping in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

 

apr 21 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 909.06, closing at 914.76! 

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are  dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

We have  exceeded our 61.8% retracement level so, if our current analysis for wave $ii$ is correct, we should expect it completion very soon, likely at the 909.06 low.

 

If that is the case then we should see the CNDX start to move starting higher in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projected endpoint for all of wave $iii$, after we believe that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 36.33, closing at 36.20!

 

We are  starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!

 

Within wave *iii* we are  rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We are  rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Last week we aggressively broke above our seven (7) month upper red downtrend line that has defined the upper bound of our wave *ii* correction.

 

In the days ahead we may drop back to test this breakout, but as noted… we do not have to, before we continue to move sharply higher!

 

We should be heading higher to at least reach our first projected endpoint for wave -iii- at the 38.00 level.                         

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are  falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have  entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are  rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are  rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is  subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are  dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are  rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are  rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are  subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are  correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are  rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is  subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are  falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1788.60!

                                                                                           

We are  rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. We have  exceeded our first projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

We are looking at wave -iii- continuing to move higher to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

In the last day or so it looks like we successfully tested the breakout of our horizontal red trendline connecting the lows at 1767.20 and 1759.00. We still expect higher price ahead.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved generally sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 26.11 level!

 

Longer term all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are  rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*, with next resistance at 26.74.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.557%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.584%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has  ended.

 

In the short term we are  rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are  rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4118.38. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are almost unchanged.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have  reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is  planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewpar2120usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 91.31.

 

All of wave -iv- is  complete at the 93.47 high and we are  starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  

 

We should continue to drop.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2120oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 61.59!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is  complete at the 67.98 high and we are  falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, and all or most of wave ^b^ at the 64.38. We also had a key daily reversal lower in yesterday’s trading session which likely marks the end of wave ^b^. We should  be dropping in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it  looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

apr 20 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021apr20cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 926.98, closing at 929.17. 

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

It is now looking that wave $ii$ is becoming a more defined 3 wave corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily CNDX Chart. Within wave $ii$, wave *a* ended at 919.25 and wave *b* at 958.07. If that is the case then we are now falling in wave *c* which a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 919.25.

 

There is a chance that all of wave *c* and $ii$ are complete at the 922.57 low, but we will give this market another day or so before we conclude that.

 

After wave $ii$ ends we should expect a very sharp rally higher in wave $iii$, and we will provide our first projections for its completion after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

GDX The was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 35.59, closing at 35.79.

 

Our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Last week we aggressively broke above our seven (7) month upper red downtrend line that has defined the upper bound of our wave *ii* correction. In the days ahead we may drop back to test this breakout, but we do not have to, before we move sharply higher.

 

We should now be heading higher to at least reach our first projected endpoint for wave -iii- at the 38.00 level.                         

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1763.70.

 

After that low was made we moved higher currently trading at the 1772.50 level.

                                                                                           

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. We have now exceeded our first projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

We are looking at wave -iii- continuing to move higher to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 25.67. In the overnight session we moved higher reaching a high of 26.10.

 

Longer term all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*, with next resistance at 26.74.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr20921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.615%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.587%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4150.47. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 15 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 90.84.

 

After that low was made we moved a bit higher to currently be trading at the 91.06 level.

 

All of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  

 

We should continue to drop.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2021oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching ahigh of 64.37, but after that high was made we moved lower to currently be trading at the 63.81 level!

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, and all or most of wave ^b^ at the 63.48 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

april 19 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  From there, add more detail to your study.

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1921cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX marginally higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 945.00, closing at 944.46! 

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

It is now looking that wave $ii$ is becoming a more defined 3 wave corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily CNDX Chart. Within wave $ii$, wave *a* ended at 919.25 and wave *b* at 958.07.

 

If that is the case then we are now falling in wave *c* which a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 919.25.

 

There is a chance that all of wave *c* and $ii$ are complete at the 922.57 low, but we will give this market another day or so before we conclude that.

 

After wave $ii$ ends we should expect a very sharp rally higher in wave $iii$, and we will provide our first projections for its completion after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1921gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1921gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 36.12, closing at 36.03!

 

Our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low.

 

We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Last week we aggressively broke above our seven (7) month upper red downtrend line that has defined the upper bound of our wave *ii* correction.

 

In the days ahead we may drop back to test this breakout, but we do not have to, before we move sharply higher.

 

We should now be heading higher to at least reach our first projected endpoint for wave -iii- at the 38.00 level.                         

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewap1921gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1790.40!

                                                                                           

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50.

 

We have now exceeded our first projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

We are looking at a pullback, but also at wave -iii- potentially continuing to move higher to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1921si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 26.28!

 

Longer term all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52!

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*, with next resistance at 26.74.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1.598%. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.552%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this count this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2119spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr219sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4191.13.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 11 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr2119usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 91.03.

 

All of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  

 

We should continue to drop.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1921oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in Friday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 63.17 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, and all or most of wave ^b^ at the 63.48 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

APR 18 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

 

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts. 

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821gold.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was strongly higher this past week, reaching a high of 1784.70, and closing at 1780.20!

                                                                          

Wave ^ii^ is now officially complete at the 1673.30 low and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^.

 

Our next challenge will be a break and close above our red horizontal resistance at around 1770.00/1790.00 and then a further break above our red downtrend line that are both shown on the Weekly Gold Chart.

 

We are now working on wave (i) of ^iii^ and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at 1677.30. We are now rallying in wave -iii- which has the following possible endpoints:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70;  (we are there)

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

Last Friday we reached our initial projection with the 1784.70 high, although we suspect (and cheer) that wave -iii- is likely going to extend to our second projected endpoint of 1846.70, before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

 After wave -iii- ends wee expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 2687.80.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We suspect that wave *iii* will likely extend since wave ^iii^ of *iii* is now projected to be higher than the current complete wave *iii* projection.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!  

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also strongly higher this past week, reaching a high of 26.38, and closing at 26.10. 

                                                                  

Wave ii is officially complete at the 21.96 low and we are now rallying higher in wave iii of 3, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 51.52!!

 

Within wave iii, we completed wave (i) at 29.91 and all of wave (ii) at the 23.74 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii) of iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 34.22.

 

Expect higher sharply higher prices moving forward.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1.564%, closing at 1.573%.

 

It appears that the bear market in US interest is now over and it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we envision this market rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s!

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence. Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910%.

 

We expect to move higher in the weeks ahead as we head toward the 1.910% level. We are currently working on the internal subdivision count within wave (iii).

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 63.94, closing at 63.19!

 

It does look like wave -i- is complete at the 67.98 high so we should still be falling in developing wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81

61.8% = 46.81.

 

We are also challenging our multi-year breakout of our major downtrend line and this week we managed to close above that line.

 

We are still short of retracement levels for our wave -ii- correction, so we still expect lower prices ahead.

 

We expect a drop at least back to our 50% retracement level of 50.81, before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this past week reaching a high of 21.60, closing at 20.89.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii!

 

Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-=31.29.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4191.31, closing at 4185.47.

 

We now need to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v of V, as we suspect are current count is not correct and needs updating.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 92.47 closing at 91.54.

 

Wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high, so we should now be heading lower in wave -v-.

 

WE expect further losses!

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past reaching a low of 922.57, closing at 944.46.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long-term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was stronger higher with breakout action this past week, reaching a high of 36.12, and closing at 36.03!

 

Wave *ii* is officially complete at the 30.64 low and we are rallying sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63!

 

Within wave *iii*  we are now working on wave ^i^ of *iii*, where completed wave -i- at 34.48 and wave -ii- at 31.65. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected initial endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86.

 

We said last week: “The big event next week should be a break and close above our multi-mouth upper red trendline that has defined the upper bounds of our wave ^ii^ correction”

 

We got that breakout!

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37!                

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions at 31.50.

 

Bitcoin: 

 

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821bit.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week, reaching another all-time high of 64860, closing at 1194, closing at 60867.

 

Bitcoin started trading in 2014 and as you can see in our Bitcoin Weekly Chart that it has risen sharply form that inception date.

 

In the longer-term, Bitcoin appears to rising in an impulse fashion and we are getting close to finishing this first impulsive sequence with wave (3) of 1 or A ending at the 58349 high.

 

All of wave (4) ended at the 43665 low and we still rallying in wave (5).

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave (5) rally at the current high.

 

This current wave (5) rally will complete a 5wave impulsive sequence for this market. Either a wave 1 or A will be completed.

 

The next move for this market will be a 50 to 61.8% retracement correction in either wave 2 or B of the entire move in bitcoin or all of wave A ended and the next big move will be a wave b drop that also retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave A rally.

 

In either case a drop of between 20000 to 25000 points should be expected after the top is reached!

 

Editor Note:  The Captain wrote this update Saturday… before the Saturday night landslide event happened…. And he’s been clear for weeks that this type of event was imminent, basis the end of wave 1/A.  Bitcoin enthusiasts and those new to the sector will get a major buy opportunity, perhaps a historic one, as the reaction manifests itself.

 

Have a great day,

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

apr 16 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX:

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 944.86, closing at 938.82. 

                                                                                                          Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

It is now looking that wave $ii$ is becoming a more defined 3 wave corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily CNDX Chart. Within wave $ii$, wave *a* ended at 919.25 and wave *b* at 958.07. If that is the case then we are now falling in wave *c* which a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 919.25. There is a chance that all of wave *c* and $ii$ are complete at the 922.57 low, but we will give this market another day or so before we conclude that.

 

After wave $ii$ ends we should expect a very sharp rally higher in wave $iii$, and we will provide our first projections for its completion after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 35.96, closing at 35.71!

 

Our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We are now rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

We aggressively broke above our seven (7) month upper red downtrend line that has defined the upper bound of our wave *ii* correction. In the days ahead we may drop back to test this breakout, but we not have to.

 

We should now be heading higher to at least reach our first projected endpoint for wave -iii- at the 38.00 level.                         

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1784.40!

                                                                                           

In the overnight session we have broken above major horizontal resistance at the 1759.00/1767.00 lows.   

 

We are now rallying in wave (i) of *iii* and within wave (i) we completed wave -i- at the 1738.00 and all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. We are fast approaching our wave -iii- initial projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

We suspect that wave -iii- might extend and if it does then our next projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 1846.70.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 26.38.

 

Longer term all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii) all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are still working on wave *i*, with next resistance at 26.74.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.564%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.573%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621sp120.png

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4173.49. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 9 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 91.81. After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 91.49.

 

All of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  

 

We should continue to drop.

 

We will provide projections for the end of wave -v- in the next day or so.  

 

The continuing drop in the USDX should support our rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1621oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 63.88.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, and all or most of wave ^b^ at the 63.48 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

apr 15 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021apr15cdnx1.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 922.57, closing at 924.66. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

It is now looking that wave $ii$ is becoming a more defined 3 wave corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily CNDX Chart. Within wave $ii$, wave *a* ended at 919.25 and wave *b* at 958.07. If that is the case then we are now falling in wave *c* which a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 919.25.

 

After wave $ii$ ends we should expect a very sharp rally higher in wave $iii$, and we will provide our first projections for its completion after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key junior miners, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of high of 34.21, closing at 34.29.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

 Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Our next challenge will be a break and close above our upper red trendline, which we think we will breach this week.                        

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1732.60.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1752.80!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.   

 

In the short term believe that a small wave -i- ended at the 1738.00 high and now all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. low, as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. We should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, with our first projection for its completion at:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 25.73.

 

Longer term, we are working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low and that we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.22.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are working on wave *i*.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                      

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1.650%. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.611%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4151.69, although we closed lower at 4124.66.

 

We also had a small key daily reversal lower, which could be signaling a major top in wave (iii). In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 24 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 91.50.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and if that is correct, then we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  

 

We should continue to drop.

 

We will provide projections for the end of wave -v- in the next day or so.  

 

The drop in the USDX should support our expected rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1521oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached ahigh of 63.48.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

Within wave $ii$, we believe that all of wave ^a^ ended at 57.25, and all or most of wave ^b^ at the 63.48 high. After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^ to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will break through this downtrend line decisively to move sharply higher after wave $ii$ ends.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

apr 14 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421cdnx.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 931.83, closing at 933.83. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

From an Ewaves point of we have satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of all of wave $ii$ at the 919.25 low, although it is now looking low wave $ii$ is becoming a more defined 3wave corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily CNDX Chart.

 

Within wave $ii$, wave *a* ended at 919.25 and wave *b* at 958.07. If that is the case then we are now falling in wave *c* which a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 919.25.

 

After wave $ii$ ends we should expect a very sharp rally higher in wave $iii$.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and some great CDNX juniors, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 34.80, closing 34.56.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Our next challenge will be a break and close above our upper red trendline, which we think we will breach this week.                        

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1749.90. Gold had a key daily reversal higher… which is bullish!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.   

 

In the short term believe that a small wave -i- ended at the 1738.00 high and now all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. low, as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. We should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, with our first projection for its completion at:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 25.54. We also had a key daily reversal higher!

 

Longer term, we are working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 28.11, and likely all of wave -ii- at the 23.79 low. Our last retracement level for wave -ii- is:

 

78.6%= 23.28.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a major trend reversal in silver as we start to move higher in wave -iii-. We appear to now have broken and clearly closed above our upper blue downtrend line that forms part of our ending diagonal triangle wave *c*.

 

We a need a break and close above 26.74, to confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low, just to make sure that our wave *c* ending diagonal triangle formation is not extending.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.611%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4148.00. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 5 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 91.65.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and if that is correct, then we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  

 

We should continue to drop.

 

We will provide projections for the end of wave -v- in the next day or so.  

 

The drop in the USDX should support our expected rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1421oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching ahigh of 61.31.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness. On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a 5 wave drop from the 67.98 high to the 57.27 low. If that is the case then this completes our first drop in a possible 3 wave corrective pattern that will form all of our wave $ii$ correction.

 

Therefore we should now expect the rally again (50% to 61.8% of the first drop) before we drop one more time, below the 57.27 low to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will breakthrough this line decisively to move sharply higher.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

apr 13 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 937.78, closing at 941.71. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

From an Ewaves point of we have satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of all of wave $ii$ at the 919.25 low and have also reached our 61.8% retracement for all of wave $ii$. Wave $ii$ looks to have a 3 wave corrective sequence on the Intraday Chart.

 

We now need to be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ and the start of our sharp wave $iii$ rally higher.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and a pack of CDNX miners, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 33.83, closing at 33.96.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Our next challenge will be a break and close above our upper red trendline, which we think we will breach this week.                        

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1723.40. After that low was made we shot higher to currently be trading at 1734.60!

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.   

 

In the short term believe that a small wave -i- ended at the 1738.00 high and now all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. low, as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

We should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, with our first projection for its completion at:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 24.70.

 

After that low was made, we moved higher to currently be trading at the 25.20 level.

 

Longer term, we are working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 28.11, and likely all of wave -ii- at the 23.79 low. Our last retracement level for wave -ii- is:

 

78.6%= 23.28.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a major trend reversal in silver as we start to move higher in wave -iii-. We a need a break and close above 26.74, to confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                       

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching ahigh of 1.703%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades.

 

The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4131.76, although we closed marginally lower at 4127.99. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 9 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially marginally lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 92.00. After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 92.30.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and if that is correct, then we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  We have now dropped below our red uptrend line as shown on our Daily USDX Chart.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 92.00 to the current high of 92.30 is corrective looking which is suggesting that once this correction ends the USDX will be moving lower again.

 

We will provide projections for the end of wave -v- in the next day or so.  

 

The drop in the USDX should support our expected rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1321oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 60.25 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness. On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a 5 wave drop from the 67.98 high to the 57.27 low. If that is the case then this completes our first drop in a possible 3 wave corrective pattern that will form all of our wave $ii$ correction.

 

Therefore we should now expect the rally again (50% to 61.8% of the first drop) before we drop one more time, below the 57.27 low to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will breakthrough this line decisively to move sharply higher.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

apr 12 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221cdnx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, closing marginally lower at 959.37. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high. If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 933.56

61.8% = 917.91.

 

From an Ewaves point of we have satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of all of wave $ii$ at the 919.25 low and have also reached our 61.8% retracement for all of wave $ii$. Wave $ii$ looks to have a 3wave corrective sequence on the Intraday Chart.

 

We now need to be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ and the start of our sharp wave $iii$ rally higher.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 33.79, but we ended closing unchanged at 34.73.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of our wave *ii* correction is now complete at the 30.64 low, and if that is the case then we should be finally starting to rally sharply higher in the initial stages of wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66.

 

Within wave *iii* we are now rallying in wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we look to have completed wave -i- at the 34.48 high and all of wave -ii- at the 31.65 low. We should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 37.86     

 

Our next challenge will be a break and close above our upper red trendline, which we think we will breach this week.                        

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Our current analysis for these gold stocks and indices is as follows:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 7.12;

61.8% = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.83;

61.8% = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 114.04

61.8% = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1730.80, although after that low was made we moved higher to reach a high of 1747.30.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1735.40, although once again after that low was made we have moved higher to currently be trading at the 1745.10 level, which is slightly higher than the Friday close.

                                                                                           

We now need to continue to move higher and break and close above horizontal resistance at 1759.00/1767.00 lows.   

 

In the short term believe that a small wave -i- ended at the 1738.00 high and now all of wave -ii- at the 1677.50. low, as shown on our Daily Gold Chart. We should now be rallying higher in wave -iii-, with our first projection for its completion at:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1782.70.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our first projections for its completion, after we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete. 

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221si.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 25.01, although after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 25.35.

 

In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 25.25 level.

 

Longer term, we are working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.96 low, and we are now rallying higher in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.52.

 

Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 28.11, and likely all of wave -ii- at the 23.79 low. Our last retracement level for wave -ii- is:

 

78.6%= 23.28.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a major trend reversal in silver as we start to move higher in wave -iii-. We a need a break and close above 26.74, to confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 23.79 low.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                               

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1.687%. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.644%.

 

We are currently updating our US 10 Year Bond Yield Daily Chart to provide the internal wave count for all of wave (iii). We will continue to work on this this week.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now coming.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 4129.48. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 7 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

We continue to rally in wave -v- of (iii), which has projected endpoint as shown above at 4001.14. We have now reached our target for we need to be guard for its completion soon, unless it is now planning to extend to our next projected endpoint which would be:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are also going to take a look at our internal wave count for all of wave v, as we think the subdivisions may need some adjustments.

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. If wave (iii) was to end at around 4000 the expected drop in wave (iv) would be between 300 and 500 points.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in Friday’s day session. In the overnight session as we have moved lower reaching a low of 92.02.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high and if that is correct, then we are now starting to fall in the initial stages of wave -v-.  We have now dropped below our red uptrend line as shown on our Daily USDX Chart.

 

We will provide projections for the end of wave -v- in the next day or so.  

 

The drop in the USDX should support our expected rallies in gold, silver and the GDX.                           

                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in Friday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 60.19 level.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following longer term projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

                                                                                                                                              

Wave $i$ of (iii) is now complete at the 67.98 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81;

61.8% = 46.76.

 

We still expect further weakness. On the Intraday Chart it looks like we have completed a 5 wave drop from the 67.98 high to the 57.27 low. If that is the case then this completes our first drop in a possible 3 wave corrective pattern that will form all of our wave $ii$ correction. Therefore we should now expect the rally again (50% to 61.8% of the first drop) before we drop one more time, below the 57.27 low to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

This current weakness is also testing the major breakout of our 12 year downtrend line that started at the 147.00 high back in 2009. We expect we will breakthrough this line decisively to move sharply higher.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

Within wave iii it now looks like wave -i- ended at 19.94 and wave -ii- at the 16.29 low.

 

We continue to rally higher in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 31.29.

 

Price should keep moving higher over the next week or so.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew