All posts by captainewave

july 26 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621cdnx1.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 899.70, closing at 902.56!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64. We had thought all of wave -ii ended at the 867.26 low, but that does not appear to be the case as wave -ii- has become much more complex, with a bearish triangle formation embedded within.

 

 Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53

61.8% = 836.63.

 

We are currently dropping in wave (c) of -ii- which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 867.26, which we still have not reached.

 

We will give this market more time before we confirm that all of wave (c ) and -ii- are complete at the current low of 868.40. A rally now above the 918.87 low would confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low.

 

We believe that most of wave -ii- is almost complete and once it ends we expect a sharp wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621gdx60a.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in Friday’s trading session, and we closed a bit lower at 33.15.

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level, which we almost reached last week. If our current analysis is correct then we should start to see the GDX rally higher in wave ^iii^ pretty soon. Wave ^ii^ has become a double wave correction.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Daily Chart.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was initially lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 1789.10. After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1812.00!

 

We have made a significant revision in our current gold count and now believe that we are working on a very large wave .iv. of -iii- triangle that could be complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now starting to move higher in wave .v., which should be a very sharp thrust. Our current projection for the end of all of wave .v. and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 2535.10.

 

If our wave .iv. triangle is complete then within wave .v. we are starting to work on wave *i* and within wave *i* we think all of wave ^i^ ended at the 1835.00 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1792.40;

61.8% = 1782.40.

 

We have reached our 50% retracement level for all of wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of a wave ^iii^ rally. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave ^iii^ when we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session reaching a low of 25.05. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 25.50!

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is getting close to completion. Within wave (iv) we are working on wave -e-, which may be complete at the 24.79 low.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a very large thrust higher in wave (v). Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

Only a break of the 23.79 low would suggest that this triangle formation is going to extend and expand.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 1.312%. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 1.251%!

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our upper retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*. After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621spd.png  

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching another all-time new high at 4415.18.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 6 points.

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2021jul26usd1.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 93.04. In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 92.68!

 

Although it might be premature we think that all of our ending diagonal triangle formation ended at the 93.20 high.

 

Only a break of 92.27 would confirm this to be true.

 

To support our upcoming expected sharp rallies in gold, silver and GDX, we have decided to adopt our alternate count that is suggesting that we are still falling in wave -iii-, and that we just completed a large and lengthy wave *iv* bearish triangle at the 93.20 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave *v*.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Should the USDX continue to rally higher to the 93.47 we suspect our wave *iv* bearish triangle will still be in play, although it will be simply be expanding and extending.    

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 72.42!

 

We have updated our count to suggest that we are still moving higher in wave i of C, and with wave i, we now think that all of wave (iii) ended at 67.98, and we are now working on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within wave (iv) we think that we completed wave (c) at the 65.01 low and that we are now rallying in wave (d). Only a break above the wave (b) high of 76.98 would eliminate this current bullish triangle. After wave (d) ends we expect a drop in wave (e) to complete all of the wave (iv) bullish triangle.    

                                                                                                               

Suncor: We think that wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, If that is the case then we are now falling wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for our wave (ii) correction is 19.56, which is still above our 50% retracement level, so we suspect that all of wave (ii) may not be complete at that low.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave (iii), and we will provide our initial projection for its completion when we believe all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

JULY 25 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul25gold1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1789.10, closing at 1801.80.

                                                                          

We made revisions to our current long term gold count, as shown on our Weekly Gold Chart….

 

And will have the monthly chart updated this week!

 

Longer term we are still rallying in wave (3) of 3, but now believe that we are still rallying in wave iii of (3), and within wave iii, we think that we likely completed a large bullish triangle at the recent low.

 

If that is the case then we are in the initial stages of a very large thrust higher in wave (v) of iii. Our next [projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 2535.10.

 

Of course triangles can always expand and extend, but for now we will assume that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

We will update our Daily Gold Chart to reflect this new wave (iv) bullish triangle for Monday’s post.

 

Gold may have completed its current correction at 1790.10 low, and if that is the case we should now start moving higher.                                  

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!              

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421si1.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 24.79, closing at 25.23. 

                                                                  

We are now working on the assumption that we are still working on wave i of 3, and within wave i we have moving sideways over the last the year in a bullish wave (iv) triangle that is almost complete as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for its completion at the 24.79 low. Of course this triangle could also expand and extend, which would only occur if we continued to drop back to the 23.74 low.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has projected a length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1.128%, closing at 1.286%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s. This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave *i* at 1.765%. WE are currently now falling in wave *ii*, which ahs the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% -= 0.99%

 

We have reached our minimum retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *iii* and the start of sharp rally higher in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* when we believe that all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially sharply lower again this past week reaching a low of 65.01, but we recovered all of those losses to close higher at 72.07!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and we now believe we are working on an expanding wave (iv) bullish triangle as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within that bullish triangle we completed wave $c$ at 65.01 and are now rallying in wave $d$. After wave $d$ ends we expect another drop in wave $e$ to complete all of wave (iv).

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave (v) to then complete all of wave i.

 

The size of the wave $iv$ triangle is suggesting a possible wave (v) thrust that see crude reach the $95/100 range, before we get our wave ii setback.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul25su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially lower past week reaching a low of 19.56, closing at 20.81!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave iii is subdividing and within that wave we likely completed all of wave (i0 at the 25.73 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 18.20;

61.8% = 16.42.

 

The current low for this correction is 19.56, which is still short of our 50 % retracement level I suggesting that perhaps all of wave (ii) is still not complete the 19.56 low.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 4233.18, but by the end of the week we had recovered all of those losses to have reached another all-time high of 4415.18, closing at 4411.79!

 

It now appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421usd.png

 

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.19, closing at 92.93!

 

We have now adopted our bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle option as our preferred count. This is shown on our Daily USDX Chart.

 

A break of the 93.47 high would only suggest that this triangle option is expanding and extending.

 

On the Intraday Chart we are also watching a ending diagonal triangle formation within wave $e$ of *iv* which may be complete at the 93.20 high. If it is then we should star to move lower in wave *v* of -iii- now.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 868.48, closing at 902.56.

 

It appears that wave -iii- is still underway, although we so far have not reached our minimum target for wave (c) of -iii-, which is the wave (a) low of 867.26.

 

A trade now above 918.97 low, would confirm to us that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low, that we have finally stated to rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of eave -iii-, when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, and key juniors, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 32.87, closing at 33.15!

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ should now be complete at the 32.87 low. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ when e believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2421bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 29320, although we closed higher at 33965!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 of B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which could now be complete at the 28908 low, although on the Daily Bitcoin Chart we are watching a continuation of a bearish triangle formation as it may still be developing.

 

After wave (a) ends we expect a wave (b) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of the wave (b) rally, after we believe that all of wave (a) is complete.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

july 23 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 913.58, closing at 909.96!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64. We had thought all of wave -ii ended at the 867.26 low, but that does not appear to be the case as wave -ii- has become much more complex with a bearish triangle formation embedded within.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53

61.8% = 836.63

 

We are currently dropping in wave (c) of -ii- which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 867.26, which still have not reached. We will give this market another day before we confirm that all of wave (c ) and -ii- are complete at the current low of 868.40.

 

A rally now above the 918.87 low would confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low.

 

We believe that most of wave -ii- is almost complete and once it ends we expect a sharp wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session, although we closed lower at 33.41.

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level, which we almost reached in this Monday’s trading session. If our current analysis is correct then we should start to see the GDX rally higher in wave ^iii^ pretty soon.

 

Wave ^ii^ has become a double wave correction.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Daily Chart.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321gold.png

  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued for most of the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1810.60.

 

After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1790.10.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 1750.10 low and if that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave (iii). Our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2148.00.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to now have completed a small impulsive sequence from 1750.10 to 1835.00, which was have labelled as wave -i-. We are now correcting in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1792.40;

61.8% = 1782.40.

 

We have now reached our 50% retracement level for all of wave -ii-, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of a wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 25.54.

 

After that high was made, we moved lower reaching a low of 25.10.

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is getting close to completion. Within wave (iv) we are working on wave -e-, which may be complete at the 24.79 low.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect a very large thrust higher in wave (v). Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

Only a break of the 23.79 low would suggest that this triangle formation is going to extend and expand.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.233%. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching ahigh of 1.301%.

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our upper retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*. After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321spd.png  

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4369.87. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 19 points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are not sure whether all of wave (iii) is now complete at the 4383.68 high, so we will give this market another day before we conclude that. If all of wave (iii) is now complete then we should expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 92.50. After that low was made we moved higher and that that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 93.04!

 

Although it might be premature we think that all of our ending diagonal triangle formation ended at the 93.20 high. Only a break a break on 92.27 would confirm this to be true.

 

To support our upcoming expected sharp rallies in gold, silver and GDX, we have decided to adopt our alternate count that is suggesting that we are still falling in wave -iii-, and that we just completed a large and lengthy wave *iv* bearish triangle at the 93.20 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave *v*.

 

Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Should the USDX continue to rally higher to the 93.47 we suspect our wave *iv* bearish triangle will still be in play, although it will be simply be expanding and extending.    

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2321oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 72.11!

 

We have updated our count to suggest that we are still moving higher in wave i of C, and with wave i, we now think that all of wave (iii) ended at 67.98, and we are now working on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Within wave (iv) we think that we completed wave (c) at the 65.01 low and that we are now rallying in wave (d). Only a break above the wave (b) high of 76.98 would eliminate this current bullish triangle.

 

After wave (d) ends we expect a drop in wave (e) to complete all of the wave (iv) bullish triangle.    

                                                                                                               

Suncor: We will need to take a closer look at our current short term count coming out of the 10.67 wave ii low, although we are thinking that perhaps wave (i) of iii ended at 25.73 and all of wave (ii) at 19.56. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally in wave (iii).

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

JULY 22 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2221cdnx.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 908.52, and closing on its high of 908.52!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64. We had thought all of wave -ii ended at the 867.26 low, but that does not appear to be the case as wave -ii- has become much more complex with a bearish triangle formation embedded within. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53

61.8% = 836.63.

 

We are currently dropping in wave (c) of -ii- which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 867.26, which still have not reached. We will give this market another day before we confirm that all of wave (c ) and -ii- are complete at the current low of 868.40.

 

A rally now above the 918.87 low would confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 868.40 low.

 

We believe that most of wave -ii- is almost complete and once it ends we expect a sharp wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2221gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2221gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 33.73, closing at 33.62!

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level, which we almost reached in Monday’s trading session. If our current analysis is correct then we should start to see the GDX rally higher in wave ^iii^ pretty soon. Wave ^ii^ has become a double wave correction.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Daily Chart.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul221gold-1.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1792.50!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 1750.10 low and if that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave (iii). Our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2148.00.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to now have completed a small impulsive sequence from 1750.10 to 1835.00, which was have labelled as wave -i-. We are now correcting in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1792.40;

61.8% = 1782.40.

 

We have now reached our 50% retracement level for all of wave -ii-, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of a wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2221si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we reached a high of 25.37! We did have a small Key Daily Reversal higher in yesterday’s trading session, which might be the first sign that this current correction is complete.

 

We are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is getting close to completion. Within wave (iv) we are working on wave -e-, which may be complete at the 24.79 low. After wave (iv) ends we expect a very large thrust higher in wave (v). Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

Only a break of the 23.79 low would suggest that this triangle formation is going to extend and expand.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ejul2221bond.png

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.317%!

 

We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our upper retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*. After wave *ii* ends will provide our first projections for the completion of wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2221spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2221sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4359.70. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 4 points.

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are not sure whether all of wave (iii) is now complete at the 4383.68 high, so we will give this market another day before we conclude that. If all of wave (iii) is now complete then we should expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2221usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we reached a low of 92.64!

 

We had a small Key Daily Reversal in yesterday’s trading session which might have signaled a top in this market at 93.20!

 

Although it might be premature we think that all of our ending diagonal triangle formation ended at the 93.20 high. Only a break a break on 92.27 would confirm this to be true.

 

To support our upcoming expected sharp rallies in gold, silver and GDX, we have decided to adopt our alternate count that is suggesting that we are still falling in wave -iii-, and that we just completed a large and lengthy wave *iv* bearish triangle at the 93.20 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave *v*. Our next projection for the end of all of wave *v* and -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Should the USDX continue to rally higher to the 93.47 we suspect our wave *iv* bearish triangle will still be in play, although it will be simply be expanding and extending.    

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 71.16!

 

We have updated our count to suggest that we are still moving higher in wave i of C, and with wave i, we now think that all of wave (iii) ended at 67.98, and we are now working on a large bullish wave (iv) triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. Within wave (iv) we think that we completed wave (c) at the 65.01 low and that we are now rallying in wave (d). Only a break above the wave (b) high of 76.98 would eliminate this current bullish triangle. After wave (d) ends we expect a drop in wave (e) to complete all of the wave (iv) bullish triangle.    

                                                                                                               

Suncor: We will need to take a closer look at our current short term count coming out of the 10.67 wave ii low, although we are thinking that perhaps wave (i) of iii ended at 25.73 and all of wave (ii) at 19.56. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally in wave (iii)..

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

JULY 21 DAILY UPDATE

Silver is likely going to have a key daily reversal higher today.

This likely is an indication that all of wave (iv) of our multi-month bullish triangle is complete at the 24.79 low.

Subscribers could consider going long now and risking to 23.75 or buy a put.

Also note that the USDX is likely going to have a key daily reversal lower today, which should indicate a  major top in this market.

As you see tomorrow we have adopted our very bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle alternate as our preferred.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

JULY 21 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 889.86, and closing on its high of 889.96!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64. We had thought all of wave -ii ended at the 867.26 low, but that does not appear to be the case as wave -ii- has become much more complex with a bearish triangle formation embedded within. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53

61.8% = 836.63.

 

We are currently dropping in wave (c) of -ii- which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 867.26, which we did not reach yesterday so we cannot confirm that all of wave (c ) and -ii- are complete at the current low of 868.40. We could still see one more drop to at least the 867.26 low. We believe that most of wave -ii- is almost complete and once it ends we expect a sharp wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121gdx60.png  

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 33.81, closing at 33.30!

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level, which we almost reached in Monday’s trading session. If our current analysis is correct then we should start to see the GDX rally higher in wave ^iii^ pretty soon. Wave ^ii^ has become a double wave correction.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Daily Chart.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching ahigh of 1825.90.

 

After that high was made we moved lower and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1796.80!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 1750.10 low and if that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave (iii). Our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2148.00.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to now have completed a small impulsive sequence from 1750.10 to 1835.00. We are now correcting that impulsive sequence and we have the following retracement levels for that correction:

 

50% = 1792.40;

61.8% = 1782.40.

 

We reached a low of 1795.00 in this current correction, which is still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, so we cannot rule out another drop back to that level before this correction ends and we start to move higher again.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 24.79.

 

After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 25.27!

 

We have now updated our Silver count to suggest that we are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is getting close to completion.

 

Within wave (iv) we are working on wave -e-, which may be complete at the 24.79 low.. After wave (iv) ends we expect a very large thrust higher in wave (v). Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

Only a break of the 23.79 low would suggest that this triangle formation is going to extend and expand.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was initially lower again in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.128%.

 

After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.258%!

 

The depth the drop from the 1.765% high has eliminated the possibility that it is a wave *iv*. We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our upper retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4336.84. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 4 points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are not sure whether all of wave (iii) is now complete at the 4383.68 high, so we will give this market another day before we conclude that. If all of wave (iii) is now complete then we should expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 93.20!

 

It look likes within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at the 89.52 low and we are now rallying in wave *ii*, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 92.62

 

We have now clearly exceeded 78.6% retracement level which is suggesting that we could be heading back to the 93.47 level. This would indicate that all of wave -iv- is not complete at the 93.50 level as we had thought. We still have our ending diagonal triangle formation, so we will see how the USDX closes today before we confirm that our current count is not correct.

 

The other option is that wave -iv- maybe become a bearish triangle. For the bearish triangle to remain valid we cannot trade above the 93.47 level.

 

We have also introduced a possible very bearish alternate that is shown on the Daily USDX Chart. This count is suggesting that we are still working on a very large wave *iv* of -iii- bearish triangle, which could be getting very close to completion.

 

After wave *iv* ends we expect a sharp drop lower in wave *v* which has a projected endpoint of :

 

-iii- = 2.168-i- = 86.26

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.   

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2121oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 65.01. After that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 68.44!

 

Our initial five wave impulsive rally out of the 6.50 wave B low to the 76.98 high may now be complete. If it is then we should expect crude to continue to drop in our wave ii correction which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally. We are not quite ready to move to that count just yet, as we will give this market a day or two to stabilize first.   

                                                                                                               

Suncor: We will need to take a closer look at our current short term count coming out of the 10.67 wave ii low.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

JULY 20 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 868.40, closing at 870.91!

 

Longer term we are rallying in wave .iii. and within wave .iii. we completed wave -i- at 1113.64. We had thought all of wave -ii ended at the 867.26 low, but that does not appear to be the case as wave -ii- has become much more complex with a bearish triangle formation embedded within. Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 889.53

61.8% = 836.63.

 

We are currently dropping in wave (c) of -ii- which has a minimum target of the wave (a) low of 867.26, which we should reach today.

 

We believe that most of wave -iii- is about complete and once it ends we expect a sharp wave -iii- rally. We will provide our first updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021gdx60.png  

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 32.87, closing at 33.19!

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level, which we almost reached in yesterday’s trading session. If our current analysis is correct then we should start to see the GDX rally higher in wave ^iii^ pretty soon.

 

Wave ^ii^ has become a double wave correction.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Daily Chart.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1824.10!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 1750.10 low and if that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave (iii). Our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2148.00.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to now have completed a small impulsive sequence from 1750.10 to 1835.00. We are now correcting that impulsive sequence and we have the following retracement levels for that correction:

 

50% = 1792.40;

61.8% = 1782.40.

 

We reached a low of 1795.00 in this current correction, which is still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, so we cannot rule out another drop back to that level before this correction ends and we start to move higher again.

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved lower in yesterday’s day session and we are currently trading at the 25.20 level!

 

We have now updated our Silver count to suggest that we are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle. 

 

That is getting close to completion.

 

Within wave (iv) we are working on wave -e-, which may be complete at the 25.03 level. After wave (iv) ends we expect a very large thrust higher in wave (v). Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

Only a break of the 23.79 low would suggest that this triangle formation is going to extend and expand.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply lower again in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.164%!

 

The depth the drop from the 1.765% high has eliminated the possibility that it is a wave *iv*. We now think that wave (iii) is going to extend so it looks like all of wave *i* of (iii) ended at 1.765% and that we are now falling in wave *ii* of (iii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.

 

We have now entered our retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave *ii* and the start of a rally in wave *iii*.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

Our initial target for the end of wave (iii) is still:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

Although we suspect that it will likely extend much higher based on the current initial wave structure for wave (iii).       

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4233.13. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up 22 points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

 

We are not sure whether all of wave (iii) is now complete at the 4383.68 high, so we will give this market another day before we conclude that.

 

If all of wave (iii) is now complete then we should expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 93.11!

 

It look likes within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at the 89.52 low and we are now rallying in wave *ii*, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 92.62

 

We have now clearly exceeded 78.6% retracement level which is suggesting that we could be heading back to the 93.47 level. This would indicate that all of wave -iv- is not complete at the 93.50 level as we had thought.

 

We still have our ending diagonal triangle formation, so we will see how the USDX closes today before we confirm that our current count is not correct.

 

The other option is that wave -iv- maybe become a bearish triangle. For the bearish triangle to remain valid we cannot trade above the 93.47 level.

 

We have also introduced a possible very bearish alternate that is shown on the Daily USDX Chart. This count is suggesting that we are still working on a very large wave *iv* of -iii- bearish triangle, which could be getting very close to completion.

 

After wave *iv* ends we expect a sharp drop lower in wave *v* which has a projected endpoint of :

 

-iii- = 2.168-i- = 86.26

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.   

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2021oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 65.63.

 

In the overnight session we moved sideways currently trading at the 66.20 level!

 

Our initial five wave impulsive rally out of the 6.50 wave B low to the 76.98 high may now be complete.

 

If it is then we should expect crude to continue to drop in our wave ii correction which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

We are not quite ready to move to that count just yet, as we will give this market a day or two to stabilize first.   

                                                                                                               

Suncor: We will need to take a closer look at our current short term count coming out of the 10.67 wave ii low.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

july 19 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921cdnx.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 906.78, closing at 908.31.

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are still dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

It now looks like our complex wave $ii$ correction is still underway as we should now be heading to at least the 902.30 level again before its completion.

 

Within wave $ii$ we appear to be working on an almost complete second wave *c* ending diagonal triangle as shown on our daily CNDX Chart.  

 

After wave $ii$ ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2021jul1921gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 33.83, closing at 33.92!

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level. We still need to be on guard for the completion of all of wave ^ii^ and the start of a sharp rally in wave ^iii^, although one more a drop back to the 33.30 level looks likely now.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Chart and also on the 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1795.10.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 1750.10 low and if that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave (iii). Our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2148.00.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to now have completed a small impulsive sequence from 1750.10 to 1835.00. We are now correcting that impulsive sequence and we have the following retracement levels for that correction:

 

50% = 1792.40;

61.8% = 1782.40.

 

Expect lower prices until we reach your expected retracement levels.   

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921si.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 25.04!

 

We have now updated our Silver count to suggest that we are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is getting close to completion.

 

Within wave (iv) we are working on wave -e-. After wave (iv) ends we expect a very large thrust higher in wave (v). Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -e- and (iv) and the current low of 25.15! Only a break of the 23.79 low would suggest that this triangle formation is going to extend and expand.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                     

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply lower again in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.227%!

 

All of wave *iii* of (i) ended at the 1.765% high. We still appear to be working on a complex wave *iv* correction, which has the following retracement levels:

 

38.2% = 1.322%;

50% = 1.130%.

 

We have exceeded our now reached our 38.2% retracement level and are likely heading to our 50% retracement level for all of wave *iv*. A drop below the 50% level would suggest that something else if happening within the US 10 Yr. Bond Yield Market.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now here… and accelerating!     

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4322.53. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 49 points!

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 93.05!

 

It look likes within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at the 89.52 low and we are now rallying in wave *ii*, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 92.62

 

We have now clearly exceeded 78.6% retracement level which is suggesting that we could be heading back to the 93.47 level. This would indicate that all of wave -iv- is not complete at the 93.50 level as we had thought.

 

We still have our ending diagonal triangle formation, so we will see how the USDX closes today before we confirm that our current count is not correct.

 

The other option is that wave -iv- maybe become a bearish triangle. For the bearish triangle to remain valid we cannot trade above the 93.47 level.

 

We have also introduced a possible very bearish alternate that is shown on the Daily USDX Chart. This count is suggesting that we are still working on a very large wave *iv* of -iii- bearish triangle, which could be getting very close to completion.

 

After wave *iv* ends we expect a sharp drop lower in wave *v* which has a projected endpoint of :

 

-iii- = 2.168-i- = 86.26

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.   

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1921oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 68.66!

 

Our initial five wave impulsive rally out of the 6.50 wave B low is still underway as shown in our Daily Crude Chart. We appear to be working on wave (v), and within wave (v) we are working on wave $iii$, which looks to now be complete at the 76.98 high.

 

We are now dropping in wave $iv$ and have exceeded our 50% retracement level which is:

 

50% = 69.27.

 

This is pretty deep retracement for a wave $iv$, but as long as we do not trade below the wave $i$ high of 66.76 it is still valid, but we are getting a bit skeptical on this one. Wave $iv$ may still become a bullish triangle formation.   

 

After all of wave (v) ends we would have completed all of wave i of C.

                                                                                                                   

Suncor: We have updated our current count to suggest that we are getting very close to completing wave (i) of iii. Within wave (i), we likely completed all of wave -iii- at the 25.73 high and all of wave -iv- at the 20.86 low. If that is the case we are now moving higher in wave -v-.

 

After wave (i) ends we expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

We have updated our projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

JULY 18 WEEKLY CHARTS POST

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold this past week reached a high of 1835.00, closing marginally higher at 1815.00.

                                                                          

Wave (ii) may now be complete at the 1750.10 low.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to be rallying out of the 1750.10 low in an impulsive fashion which does not appear to be complete at the 1835.00 high, so we should see higher prices earlier next week.       

 

Next major resistance is back at the 1919.00 high.

 

We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii) likely next week.

 

The USDX is likely breaking lower now in an ending diagonal triangle formation which is bullish for gold and silver.                                          

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 2687.80.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We suspect that wave *iii* will likely extend since wave ^iii^ of *iii* is now projected to be higher than the current complete wave *iii* projection.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.  

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was lower this past week reaching a low of 25.64, closing at 25.80.

                                                                  

We updated the internal wave count for all of wave i to now suggest that the sideways trading over the last the year is a bullish triangle that is almost complete as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart.

 

Unfortunately, it looks like we need one more drop below the 25.58 low to complete the minimum requirements for this pattern to become complete, unless it extends and expands.

 

This bullish triangle is wave (iv) and within wave (iv) we are now working on wave -e-. more details within wave -e- has been shown on our Daily Silver Chart. After wave (iv) ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave (v), which has projected a length of $8 to $10.                                                

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1.420%, but by the end of the week we had closed significantly off that high at 1.300%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence. Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910%.

 

We expect to move higher as we head toward the 1.910% level. Within wave (iii) we completed wave *iii* at 1.765% and are still working on our wave *iv* correction. After wave *iv* ends we expect a wave *v* rally to complete all of wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 70.16, closing at 71.56!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, we completed all of wave (iii) of i at 67.98, and all of wave (iv) as a bullish triangle at 58.73.

 

We are now rallying in wave (v) of i, which still appears incomplete!

 

A continuation of this rally to at least the 76.90 level appears likely. After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

Within wave (v), we may NOW have completed all of wave $iv$ at the 70.16 low, although wave $iv$ could still become more complex and even a bullish triangle formation.

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower past week reaching a low of 20.86, closing at 20.98!

 

We continue to rally higher in wave iii. Our have updated our projection for the end of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -iii- ended at the 25.73 and wave -iv- at 20.86. We should start rallying in wave -v- of (i) very soon. After wave (i) ends we expect a drop in wave (ii) which should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                               

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821spw.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4393.68, although we closed lower at 4327.16!

 

It still appears that wave (iii) is extending and our next projected endpoint for its completion is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4767.12

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul18218usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 92.83, closing at 92.69!

 

It looks like within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at 89.52, and if that is the case we are now rallying in wave *ii*.

 

We are watching an ending diagonal triangle formation on the Daily USDX Chart, that may now be complete at the 92.84 high, although on the Intraday Chart it looks like we might make one more new high above 92.84, before this ending diagonal triangle formation actually ends.

 

A break now below the 92.00 will confirm that it is complete at the 92.84 high. Then, we should expect the USDX to start to drop in wave *iii*. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave *iii* next week.

 

We are still watching the very bearish triangle formation alternate count as shown on our Daily USDX Chart, which remains valid and if this is the path that the USDX is following then the USDX is heading sharply lower, which would support much higher gold and silver prices.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 906.78, closing at 908.31.

 

It is starting to appear that all of wave $ii$ is NOT complete at the 902.36 low. If that is the case then we will likely revisit this low again early next week before all of wave $ii$ actually ends.

 

After that wave $iii$ ends we should start to rally higher again in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave $iii$ when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 35.16, although we closed lower at 33.92.

 

Longer term we are rallying higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

It looks like that within wave *iii* all of wave ^i^ ended at the 39.88 high and all or most of wave ^ii^ should now be complete at the 33.30 low.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ likely next week as we expect that our wave ^iii^ rally is still just getting started.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                              

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and… we have added to our long positions!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1821bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching a low of 31046, closing at 31672.

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 of B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which could now be complete at the 28908 low, although on the Daily Bitcoin Chart we are watching a continuation of a bearish triangle formation as it may still be developing.

 

After wave (a) ends we expect a wave (b) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. After wave (b) ends we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We will provide our first projections for the end of the wave (b) rally, after we believe that all of wave (a) is complete.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

july 16 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 923.68, closing at 928.53!

 

Longer term we are continuing to rally higher in wave (i) of -iii-. Within wave (i) we believe we completed wave $i$ of (i) of -iii- at the 999.86 high.

 

If that is the case then we are now dropping in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

78.6% = 895.63.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $ii$ at the 902.30 low and the start of a major rally in wave $iii$.

 

Our current short-term challenge is to clear resistance at the 1000 level.

 

If we assume that all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 902.30 low then it could be possible that wave $iii$ is subdividing as shown on our Daily CDNX Chart, with wave *i* ending at 982.22.

 

It now looks like wave *ii* is complete at the 922.30 low. After wave *ii* ends we expect to start moving higher again in wave *iii* of $iii$.

 

We will provide our first projection for end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term all of wave -iii- has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1592.50.

 

We should continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Since the current projected endpoint for wave .iii. is lower than for wave -iii-, we should expect that wave .iii. will head to our second projected endpoint which is:

 

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1784.50.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul2621gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1621gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 35.03, closing at 34.97!

 

We are still working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete at the failure high of 39.88, and we are therefore now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 32.62.

 

We are now watching our 78.6% retracement level. We still need to be on guard for the completion of all of wave ^ii^ and the start of a sharp rally in wave ^iii^, although one more a drop back to the 33.30 level looks likely now.

 

We also have a head and shoulders bottom formation on the GDX Chart and also on the 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

We have broken above the NL on the smaller head and shoulder bottom in yesterday’s trading so we will see if we get follow through today, which would be a good sign for the bulls.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 78.66!           

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated May 25th,2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and all of wave .ii. at the 6.09 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii. which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 18.26.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated May 21,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and all of wave -ii- at the 18.64 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 48.35.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated May 20th, 2021): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we completed all of wave (ii) at 247.99 and we are now starting to rally higher in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 622.30.

 

XAU (Updated May 18, 2021): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36, and all of wave .ii. at the 128.08 low. We are now rallying in wave .iii., which as an initial projected endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 233.83.

 

Longer term, wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

                                                 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Since wave .iii. has a higher projection then wave -iii-, we would assume that wave -iii- will move to next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 288.57

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1621gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1832.70!

 

 After that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1815.80.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 1750.10 low and if that is the case we are now starting to rally higher in wave (iii). Our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2148.00.

 

Expect higher prices with next resistance at the 1856.00 level.   

 

Note the potential head and shoulders bottom formation on our Daily Gold Chart.

                                    

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ =  2687.80.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1621si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 26.16 level!

 

We have now updated our Silver count to suggest that we are still working on wave i of 3 and within wave i we are working on a very big and lengthy wave (iv) bullish triangle that is getting close to completion.

 

Within wave (iv) we are working on wave -e-. After wave (iv) ends we expect a very large thrust higher in wave (v).

 

 Based on the size of the wave (iv) bullish triangle we expect the thrust to be in the order of $8 to $10.

 

It could be possible that all of wave -e- and (iv) could be complete at the 26.07 low!

 

Our updated wave count is shown on our Daily Silver Chart!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1621bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply lower again in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 1.292%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 1.336%.

 

All of wave *iii* of (i) ended at the 1.765% high. We still appear to be working on a complex wave *iv* correction, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 1.491%

38.2% = 1.322%

 

We have now reached our 38.2% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of all of wave *iv* and the start of our wave *v* rally. Wave *iv* may be complete at the 1.268% low.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yields made a multi-generational low at the 0.398% level and have started the long journey higher in a new bull market that will last decades. The era of low interest rates has now ended.

 

In the short term we are now rallying in wave (iii) in our first five wave impulsive sequence and within that sequence we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial target of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1.910%. 

 

After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

It appears that much higher inflation is now here and accelerating.      

                                                                                                                                                                                       

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1621spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1621sp120.png  

 

Short Term Update:

                                                             

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 4340.70. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 8 points.

 

It looks like wave (iii) is extending further as shown on our 120 Min and Daily SP500 Charts. Our next projected endpoint for the completion of all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 4764.12.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1621usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 92.74!

 

After that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 92.57.

 

It look likes within wave -v-, wave *i* ended at the 89.52 low and we are now rallying in wave *ii*, which has the following last retracement level:

 

78.6% = 92.62

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level, so we need to be our guard for the completion of wave *ii*, and that start of our wave *iii* drop. We also appear to have and ending diagonal triangle formation shown on the Daily USDX Chart, which NOW LOOKS TO BE COMPLETE AT THE 92.84 HIGH.

 

A break below 92.14 should send this market sharply lower!

 

The other option is that wave -iv- maybe still be underway as a flat correction or possibility a bearish triangle. For the bearish triangle to remain valid we cannot trade above the 93.47 level.

 

We have also introduced a possible very bearish alternate that is shown on the Daily USDX Chart. This count is suggesting that we are still working on a very large wave *iv* of -iii- bearish triangle, which could be getting very close to completion.

 

After wave *iv* ends we expect a sharp drop lower in wave *v* which has a projected endpoint of :

 

-iii- = 2.168-i- = 86.26

 

It looks like at least all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 92.84 level and if that is the case then we are starting to fall in wave *iii*.

 

We will provide our first projection for the end of wave *iii* in the next day or so.

 

Projections for the end of wave -v- are:

 

-v- = 89.17;

-v- = 1.618-i- = 84.38;

-v- = 0.618(length of wave -iii-) = 0.618(100.97-89.17) = 86.18;

-v- = 1.618(length of wave -iii-) = 1.618(100.97-89.17) = 74.38.   

                                                                                                                   

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 93.50.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 93.50! 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1621oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 71.19!

 

Our initial five wave impulsive rally out of the 6.50 wave B low is still underway as shown in our Daily Crude Chart. We appear to be working on wave (v), and within wave (v) we are working on wave $iii$, which looks to now be complete at the 76.98 high.

 

The wave $iii$ high was marked by a large key daily reversal lower last week.

 

We are now dropping in wave $iv$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 73.34;

38.2% = 71.09.

 

We have reached our 38.2% retracement level so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another rally in wave $v$, although the time it took to reach 70.76 was pretty quick, which could be suggesting that wave $iv$ may still be underway and become a bullish triangle formation.   

 

After all of wave (v) ends we would have completed all of wave i of C.

                                                                                                                   

Suncor: We have updated our current count to suggest that we are getting very close to completing wave (i) of iii. Within wave (i), we likely completed all of wave -iii- at the 25.73 high and all of wave -iv- at the 21.54 low. If that is the case we are now moving higher in wave -v-.

 

After wave (i) ends we expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally.

 

We have updated our projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew