All posts by captainewave

APR 18 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

CDNX moved sideways in Thursday’s trading session, although we closed marginally lower at 892.50!

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. is now complete at the 802.71 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to move sharply higher in wave -iii- of -iii-, as shown on our Daily CNDX Chart. Out first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1527.95.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are working on (i) and within wave (i), we should be working on wave $iii$, which has projected endpoints of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 914.22;

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ =

 

980.04.                                                                                                      

 

Next major resistance is 948.38.                                                                                                                        

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewap41822gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Thursday’s trading session reaching a high of 40.95, closing at 40.86!

 

All of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.33 low and longer term we have now rallied higher in wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.22.

 

Within wave *iii*, we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we are working on -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.59.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $iv$ ended at the 35.67 high and if that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $v$, which appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Within this ending diagonal triangle, it looks like wave !iii! is still underway. After wave !iii! ends we expect a wave !iv! drop that cannot fall below the wave !ii! low.

 

After wave !iv! ends we expect another rally in wave !v! to complete this ending diagonal triangle wave $v$ and all of wave -iii-. Diagonal triangles are like regular triangles… that like to expand.

 

The other option is that we are still working on an expanding wave $iv$ bullish triangle with wave !a! ending at 35.67 and are still rallying in a lengthy wave !b!. After wave !b! ends we should fall in wave !c! which cannot trade below the wave !a! low of 35.67.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated December 31st,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 27.74. We are now falling in an irregular type of wave -ii- correction which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.20;

61.8% = 18.41.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a large rally in wave -iii-. Within wave -ii-, wave $c$ appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle, which could be complete at the 17.27 low. After wave -ii- ends we will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii-.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 31st , 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated December 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Thursday’s day session reaching a low of 1962.70, although after that low was made, we moved higher, and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1997.10!

 

We are now thrusting sharply higher in wave .i. of -v-.

 

Within wave -v- we are working on wave .i., and within wave .i., it now looks like all of wave $v$ is complete at the 2078.80 high. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1915.90;

61.8% = 1877.50.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave .ii. is NOT complete at the 1893.20 low. It looks like within wave .ii., all of wave $a$ ended at 1895.20 and that the current rally is a complex wave $b$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1987.00;

61.8% = 2007.70.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for wave $b$ so we need to be on guard for its completion. After wave $b$ ends we expect another drop back to at least the wave $a$ low of 1893.20, in wave $c$ to complete all of wave .ii. 

 

Longer term, we still expect gold to move sharply higher with very big daily price swings, as we march to all time new highs.

                           

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Thursday’s day session reaching a low of 25.46.

 

In the overnight session we have blasted higher reaching a high of 26.46!

 

We are now rallying sharply higher in wave iii, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97!

 

Within wave iii, we are now rallying in wave -i- and within wave -i- we are rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 4.618$i$ = 31.54.

 

It looks like wave $iii$ is now subdividing. We have updated the location of where we think wave ^i^ ended to 27.50, and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave ^ii^ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 24.74;

61.8% = 24.09.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 24.05 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^. We will give this market another day or so before we provide our initial projections for the completion of wave ^iii^.

 

Next major resistance is 26.16.

 

We still expect much higher prices lie ahead, and still expect the daily trading ranges to continue to be large.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in Thursday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 2.884%!

 

It still looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3-wave irregular type correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low.

 

This wave *b* rally is now crazy stretched and should end very soon. After wave *b* ends we still expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%, to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.      

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in Thursday’s trading session reaching a low of 4390.77. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 15 points!

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (iii) which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3735.83.

 

The volatility should continue.  

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short using calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short using calls as stops.

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Thursday’s day session reaching a high of 100.77. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 100.48 level!

 

Our last retracement level for all of wave (ii) is:

 

78.6% = 100.79.

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level and if our current analysis is to remain valid, we need to turn down now.

 

We were stopped out of our short position on Thursday.

                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher again in Thursday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 108.00!

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, with all of wave (i) ending at 130.50 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.47;

61.8% = 88.43.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $a$ of (ii) ended at 93.53, wave $b$ at 116.64 and likely all of wave $c$ at the 92.93 low, to complete all of wave (ii). If that is the case, we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion at:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i)= 203.10.

 

Inflation in the world is just beginning!

 

No matter what now happens in the Ukraine/Russian war, millions of barrels on Russian oil have now disappeared from the world market that cannot easily be replaced, which will be very bullish for crude prices moving forward!

 

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97 and all of wave -ii- at the 22.22 low. We are now moving sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 38.50.

 

Next major resistance being the 34.56, which we are fast approaching.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:                                                                                                                     

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

FEB 20 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1905.00, closing at 1899.40!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and, incredibly, our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within that triangle it looks like wave .d. is still underway, but that may be complete at the 1905.00 high.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

If it does then one of our two alternate counts will be in play, as we would now be rallying sharply higher in wave -v-.  Ultimately, it’s important for all subs to remember we are LONG GOLD IN A BIG WAY… and trying to trade only the countertrends shorter term wave counts is a difficult proposition.

 

Assuming that all of wave .d. is complete or mostly complete at the 1905.00 high, then we should still expect another drop in wave .e. to complete all of wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long and strong, with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also higher this past week reaching a high of 24.11, closing at 23.99.  

                                                                  

We still believe that wave ii is NOT complete, although we are starting to think maybe it is at the second 21.41 low.

 

The potentially good news: Our alternate count we are suggesting that all of wave ii ended at the second 21.41 low and we have already started to rally higher in the initial stages of wave iii.

 

Our current count suggests that all of wave i ended at 29.91, and within wave ii, wave (a) ended at 21.81, wave (b) at 30.35, and we are now falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) formation that has a minimum target of 21.41. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

Within wave -v-, all of wave $a$ ended at 21.41 and all of wave $b$ at the 24.75 high. We are now falling in a subdividing wave $c$ to at least the 21.41 low, but more likely into our retracement zone for all of wave ii, before it ends. We do a projection for the end of wave $c$ as:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 20.67.   

 

Within wave $c$, wave ^i^ ended at 21.98 and all or most of wave ^ii^ at 24.11, and if that is the case then we should see silver start to drop again in wave ^iii^.                               

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50 

 

Again, it’s very important for investors to get positioned for the big wave action rather trying avoid all the little subwaves down.

 

It is really all about the big C wave and likely target of around $86.50!

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long from 14.85, with puts as our stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

The bond is another very interesting market right now, and we’ll get to why that is in a moment.

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially marginally higher this past week reaching a high of 2.065, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1.918%, closing at 1.932%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades our analysis suggests we are rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s!

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b*, perhaps at the 2.065% high. Our internal wave count for all of wave *b* shows a double 3 wave correction pattern which we think is getting very close to completion. After wave *b* ends we still expect a another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%. 

 

We do have projection for the end of wave *b* as:

 

*b* = 1.618*a* = 2.159%

 

We are watching for a shorting opportunity early next week.  This is one small subwave count we want to play (with stoploss).  Here’s why:  We believe a crash phase of the stock market would see hug money move into bonds, pushing yields lower temporarily.

 

For those of you who want to play the bond action with ETFs rather than the “Big Boy” futures contracts the Captain uses, take a look at TLT-nyse (non-levered) and TMF (leveraged) to short rates and go long bond prices…

 

And TBF (non-levered) and TMV (leveraged) to play the major swing higher in rates and lower bond prices.

                                                         

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially higher again this past week reaching a high of 95.82, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 87.46, closing at 90.21.

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, which has an initial projection for its completion at :

 

iii =1.681i = 176.47!

 

Within wave iii, we are likely getting very close to completing wave (i).

 

We did have key weekly reversal lower last week, which might be signaling that all of wave (i) is complete at the 95.82 high.

 

After wave (i) ends we expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally. We will likely provide those retracement levels this week.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77!

C= 1.618A = 244.78!

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 28.60, closing at 29.07!

 

We are still working on wave iii and continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

Wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ending at the 26.97 high and all of wave -ii- at 22.22.

 

Wave -iii- has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 38.50.

 

We expect higher prices to continue now, with our next resistance level at the 34.56 level.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                            

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week reaching low of 4327.22, closing at 4348.87!

 

It looks like our ending diagonal triangle formation ended a failure high at 4748.83, and wave V is now complete at the high.

 

We believe the SP500 is now heading into a multi-year bear market, probably the worst in the history of America, and we have broken our Armageddon Support Line.

 

Within this current drop we likely completed wave (i) at the 4222.62 low and likely all of wave (ii) at the 4588.92 high.

 

We should now be falling in wave (iii) and within wave (iii), wave -i- ended at 4364.84 and likely all of wave -ii- at 4489.55.

 

If that is the case we should now falling sharply lower in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 4126.99.

 

Our initial project for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3737.51.

 

 

Active Positions: Heavily Short, with calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally lower this past week reaching a low of 95.67, closing at 96.02!

 

Within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 97.44 high and if that is the case then we are starting to fall sharply lower in wave (iii). A break of our major uptrend line now will confirm to us that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 97.44 high.

 

We are still expecting a rally off of that red trendline next week which we plan to use as an opportunity to short this market, risking to 97.45.  

 

Active Positions: Trying to short at 96.50, risking to 97.45.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 846.13, closing at 852.15!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

Wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$. We have updated our internal count for wave $ii$ to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern that remains incomplete.

 

We should now be falling in our second wave (c). It continues to look like wave $ii$ is still not complete at the 802.71 low.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher again this past week reaching a high of 35.11, closing at 34.50!

 

We believe that wave *ii* is still underway as we work on our 3rd three wave corrective pattern. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- is:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

It is starting to look like wave *ii* may be complete at the 28.33 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

 IMPORTANT:

 

We are going to wait to see if gold moves above the 1919.20 high, before we move to this idea as our preferred count.

 

The short term picture within the GDX is bit unclear at the moment.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37!                                                         

 

We do have higher targets also!!

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching low of 39497, closing at 39902!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

Within wave B or 2 all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low and wave (b) is at the 68979 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (c), which should be heading back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Our 61.8% retracement level is lower at around 25000.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

The large rally in Bitcoin over the last couple of weeks may be suggesting that our current count, within wave (b) is not correct and that wave (b) maybe becoming a large and somewhat grotesque bearish triangle.

 

Within this bearish triangle, wave a ended at 68979 and wave b at 32991. If that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave c, which cannot trade above the wave a high of 68979. For now this will remain as our alternate count.

 

After wave 2 or B ends we expect a massive rally in wave 3 or C.  Investors who are not Crypto savvy can look at funds like GBTC, MSTR, BITW, and ETHE (and actual ETFs in Canada) to play the C wave monster!!   

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

JAN 2 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan222gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week reaching a high of 1831.40, closing at 1828.60!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within our wave -iv- triangle all of wave .d. ended at the 1879.50 high. We are now falling in wave .e. that we believe is still likely NOT complete at the 1753.00 low.

 

Within wave .e., wave ^a^ ended at 1753.00, and we are now rallying in wave ^b^ which is likely getting very close to being complete as we approach the 61.8% retracement level at the 1831.49 high

 

After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^, to below the 1753.00 wave ^a^ low to complete all of wave .e. and our bullish wave -iv- triangle. Wave .e. cannot drop below the wave .c. low of 1675.90 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

There is a very slim chance that all of wave .e. and all of our bullish -iv- ended at the 1753.00 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan222si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this past week reaching a high of 23.48, closing at 23.35!  

                                                                  

Wave ii likely is NOT complete. Our current count suggests that all of wave i ended at 29.91, and within wave ii, wave (a) ended at 21.81, wave (b) at 30.35, and we are now falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) formation that has a minimum target of 21.41.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

Within wave -v-, all of wave $a$ ended at 21.41, and we are now rallying in an incomplete wave $b$. After wave $b$ ends we expect one more drop in wave $c$ to at least the 21.41 low, but more likely into our retracement zone for all of wave ii, before it ends.                                  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.558%, closing at 1.512%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.693% high. We have now labeled our internal wave count for all of wave *b* to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave correction pattern, which ended at the 1.693% high. We are now falling in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

                                                           

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%.

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan222oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was higher this past week reaching a high of 77.44, closing at 75.21!

 

We continue to work on our very large wave (iv) bullish triangle. Wave (iii) ended at the 67.98 high.

 

Within our bullish triangle, wave -c- is now complete at the 62.43 low, and we should now be rallying in wave -d-. Wave -d- cannot trade above the wave -b- high of 85.41.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan222su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was higher this week reaching a high of 25.47, closing at 25.03!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

Wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 26.97 high. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We now expect lower prices as wave -ii- develops as we are still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, although we cannot rule the possibly that all of wave -ii- ended at the 22.22 low. If that is the case then we should start to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-, and should finally break though our major red downtrend line.

 

We will give this market a few more days before we confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 22.22 low. We will provide our first projection for the end of wave -iii-. after we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan222sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time high at 4808.93, closing at 4766.18!.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.97 low and it looks like wave (v) is going to extend higher with wave -i- of (v) ending at 4743.83 and all of wave -ii- at 4495.12.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- of (v).  

 

We expect to break to all time new high next week.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan22usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 95.57, closing at 95.59!

 

Within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) ended at the 96.94 high.

 

On the Intraday Chart we look to formation a bullish triangle that would be suggesting that we should see one more high above the 96.94 high before all of wave (ii) ends, although a drop now below the 95.54 level would eliminate this triangle option.  

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 97.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan222cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 940.38, closing at 939.18!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

Wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$. We have traded below our 78.6% retracement level for all of wave $ii$ which may be suggesting that all of wave -ii- may not be complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan222gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 32.08, closing at 32.03!

 

We believe that wave *ii* is still underway as we work on our 3rd three wave corrective pattern.

 

Our retracement levels for wave -ii- is:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

Within wave *ii* we have a triple 3 wave corrective pattern, of which are working on the last. Within that last 3 wave pattern that started at the 35.08, we think all of wave ^a^ ended at the 28.90 low.

 

We are rallying in an incomplete wave ^b^, although it may be complete at the 32.08 high.

 

After wave ^b^ ends we expect another drop in wave ^c^ to at least the 28.83 low before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/ewjan222bit.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was initially higher this past week, reaching a high of 52080 although… we closed lower at 47369!

 

All of wave 1 or A is officially complete at the 64860 high. We are falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

Within wave B or 2 all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low and wave (b) is at the 68979 high. We are falling in wave (c), which should be heading back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Our 61.8% retracement level is lower, at around 25000.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

DEC 19 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1753.00, although after that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high 1815.70, closing at 1804.90!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and our current preferred count is suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within our wave -iv- triangle all of wave .d. ended at the 1879.50 high.

 

We are now falling in wave .e. that we believe is likely NOT complete at the 1753.00 low.

 

Within wave .e., wave ^a^ ended at 1753.00, and we are now rallying in wave ^b^ which is likely not complete yet. After wave ^b^ ends we expect one more drop in wave ^c^, to below the 1753.00 wave ^a^ low to complete all of wave .e. and our bullish wave -iv- triangle.

 

Wave .e. cannot drop below the wave .c. low of 1675.90 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

We did have a bullish key weekly reversal this week, so there is a (very slim for now) chance that all of wave .e. and all of our bullish -iv- ended at the 1753.00 low.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 21.41, although after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 22.69, closing at 22.53!  

                                                                  

Wave ii is NOT complete.

 

Our current count suggests that all of wave i ended at 29.91, and within wave ii, wave (a) ended at 21.81, wave (b) at 30.35, and we are now falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) formation that has a minimum target of 21.41.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

We did reach our minimum target for wave -v- of 21.41, but we still think within wave -v-, all of wave $a$ ended at 21.41, and we are now rallying in an incomplete wave $b$.

 

After wave $b$ ends we expect one more drop in wave $c$ to at least the 21.41 low, but more likely into our retracement zone for all of wave ii, before it ends.                                  

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a low of 1.372%, closing at 1.402%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.693% high.

 

We have labeled our internal wave count for all of wave *b* to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave correction pattern, which ended at the 1.693% high.

 

We are now falling in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low.

 

We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%!

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was lower this past week reaching a low of 69.39, closing at 70.72!

 

We believe that wave i is still underway and that the current setback is a very large wave (iv) bullish triangle.

 

Wave (iii) ended at the 67.98 high. Within our bullish triangle, wave -c- is now complete at the 62.43 low, and we should now be rallying in wave -d-. Wave -d- cannot trade above the wave -b- high of 85.41.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 22.56, closing at 23.18!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low.

 

We are rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

It looks like our major breakout is going to be delayed as wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 26.97 high. We are now falling in wave -ii- which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 21.94;

61.8% = 20.75.

 

We now expect lower prices as wave -ii- develops, as we are still a bit short of our 50% retracement level.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                              

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 4731.99, although we closed sharply lower at 4620.64!

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) ended at the 4278.97 low and it looks like wave (v) is going to extend higher with wave -i- of (v) ending at 4743.83 and all of wave -ii- at 4495.12.

 

If that is the case then we are rallying higher in wave -iii- of (v).  

 

We exited our short position on Monday.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921usd.png

  

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 96.89, closing at 96.55!

 

We have now updated our count to suggest that within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are now still waiting for confirmation that all of wave (ii) ended at the 96.94 high.

 

On the Intraday Chart we look to be forming a bullish triangle that would be suggesting that we should see one more high above the 96.94 high before all of wave (ii) ends.

 

We will see how we trade early next week, and we may move our stop higher.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 97.00!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921cdnx.png  

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 857.41, closing at 893.78!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

Wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$.

 

We have traded below our 78.6% retracement level for all of wave $ii$ which may be suggesting that all of wave -ii- may now be complete at the 847.92 low.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 28.90, although after that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high of 31.76, closing at 31.13!

 

All of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and we are now rallying in wave *iii*, which has the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

Within wave *iii*, all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii ended at 33.95 it now looks like wave -ii- is still underway. Our last retracement level for wave -ii- is:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

Within wave -ii- we have a triple 3 wave corrective pattern, of which ae are working on the last.

 

Within that last 3 wave pattern that started at the 35.08, we think all of wave ^a^ ended at the 28.90 low.

 

We are now rallying in an incomplete wave ^b^, which then should be followed by another drop in wave ^v^ to at least the 28.83 low before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ewdec1921bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching low of 45505, closing at 46864!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

Within wave B or 2 all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low and wave (b) is at the 68979 high. We are now falling in wave (c), which should be heading back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 or B. Our 61.8% retracement level is lower that that at around 25000.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

NOV 7 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 1758.50, but after that low as made we moved higher reaching a high of 1820.10, closing at 1816.80!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and we are falling in an ongoing lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave .c. at 1675.90 low and we are rallying in wave .d..

 

Wave .d., looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave ^b^ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

We are rallying in wave ^c^ of *d*. Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

We finally clearly broke and closed decisively above the purple downtrend line connecting 1919.20 and 1836.90. We also had a key weekly reversal higher this week, which is bullish!

 

It turned out wave ^c^ looks to have become an impulsive sequence with all f wave $i$ ending at the 1815.50 high and all of wave $ii$ at the 1758.50 low.

 

If that is the case we are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^c^, which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1911.20.

 

Next big resistance will be the 1835/1840 level, which we expect to break through next week, as gold move higher.

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.         

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 23.05 but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 24.25!  

                                                                  

All of wave ii of 3 ended at 21.41. We are now rallying in the initial stages of wave iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97.

 

We reached our 24.94 resistance level and it looks like all of wave -i- of iii ended at the 24.92 low and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which is not complete at the 23.05 high.

 

WE are rallying in wave -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 28.73.

 

Note the completed head and shoulder bottoming formation on the Daily Silver Chart.

 

We expect higher prices next week, as head back to the neckline.                                            

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was sharply lower this past week reaching a low of 1.450, closing at 1.453%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades, we are rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b* at the 1.691% high.

 

Note the ending diagonal triangle formation that is shown on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart which we have now decisively broke below the lower trend line connecting 1.463% and 1.507%.

 

We expect lower prices now as we fall in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low.

 

We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 1.770%.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was lower this past week reaching a low of 78.25, closing at 81.27!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We are thrusting higher in wave (v), which see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends.

 

Next major resistance is the 91.24 level.

 

We have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 85.41 high, so we expect higher prices lie ahead before all of wave i ends. After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721su.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 25.11 but after that low was made we moved higher reaching a high of 2697, closing at 26.52!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We are on the verge of a major breakout as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart. We expect much higher prices in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor.                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply higher again this past week reaching another all-time high of 4718.50, closing at 4697.53!

 

It appears unlikely now that all of wave (iii) ended at the 4545.85 high as the drop off that high to 4278.97 was likely too shallow to be all of wave (iv).

 

It could be that we are still extending higher in wave (iii). We will take another look and provide a further update in Monday’s Morning Post.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721us.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 93.64, closing at 94.32!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.64 high.

 

Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid.

 

After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81! 

 

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past week reaching a high of 990.64, closing at 985.14!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

We still expect higher prices again next week as wave -iii- gets going higher, although we still have some previous resistance levels to get through.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ewnov721gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially lower this past week, reaching a low of 30.96 although after that low was made we moved nicely higher…

 

 Reaching a high of 32.75 and… closing on the high of 32.75!

 

We are working on the assumption that all of wave *ii* is finally complete at the 28.83 low and if that is the case then we are rallying in wave *iii*, which ash the following initial endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.72.

 

It looks like all of wave -i- of ^i^ of iii is now complete at the 33.95 high and we now falling in wave -ii-, which is complete at the 30.96 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave -iii- which has initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 39.24.

 

Note that the right shoulder of our head and shoulders bottoming formation is basically complete.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                          

 

We do have higher targets also!

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ewapr1821bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was higher this past week reaching a high of 64239 although we closed lower at 61248!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

Within wave B or 2 we think all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low.

 

We are rallying in wave (b) which looks to be complete at the 66981 high.

 

We should now be falling in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction, as opposed to a simple zigzag.

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

OCT 10 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021gold.png

 

Jobs Report Analysis:

On the Intraday Chart, gold and silver have completed 5 wave impulsive rallies form their recent lows.

 

For gold the five wave rally ran from 1721.00 to 1782.40. The current sell-off is a correction of the first impulsive sequence higher. Retracement levels are:

 

50% = 1751.80;

61.8% = 1744.50.

 

For silver the five wave rally ran from 21.41 to 23.22. The current sell-off is a correction of the first impulsive sequence higher. Retracement levels are:

 

50% = 22.32;

61.8% = 22.10.

 

On the Intraday Chart for the GDX: we completed our third wave within a developing impulsive sequence which started at the 28.83 low at today’s high of 31.35. We are now correcting in small 4th wave.

 

In general, despite of the sell-off after the rally this am coming from the weak US Employment Report… gold, silver and the GDX should be heading higher after this small corrections end, likely this week!

 

 

Long Term Update For Gold:

 

Gold moved mostly sideways this past week, until Friday working where we spiked higher reaching a high of 1782.40, but by the close we had closed slightly lower on the week at 1757.40. 

 

A lot of action!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and that we are now falling in an ongoing lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Within that triangle we completed wave *c* at 1675.90 low.

 

If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave *d*. Wave *d*, looks to be turning into a 3 wave pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all wave $b$ ending at the 1721.10 low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to move higher again in wave $c$ of *d*.

 

Wave *d* cannot trade above the wave *b* high of 1919.20.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 1721.0 to Friday’s high of 1782.40 looks to be a completed 5 wave impulsive sequence.

 

The drop from the 1782.40 high is the correction of the that five-wave rally.

 

We hope to provide our retracement levels for that correction in Monday’s Morning post.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

Of course, this bullish triangle could also expand and extend, but one step at a time. 

 

Alternate count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-. 

 

Alternate count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this past week reaching a high of 23.22, closing at 22.70!  

                                                                  

All of wave i of 3 ended at 29.91, so we over the last many months we have been correcting in wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

The current low of 21.41 is still a bit short of our 50% retracement level, but the way this market appears to be trading it is looks likely that the 21.41 low was the end of the wave ii correction.

 

We see how this market trades next week to confirm my observation.

 

After wave ii ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii and we will provide our initial projections for its completion when we believe all of wave ii is complete.

 

This count is actually much more bullish then our previous wave (iv) bullish triangle was.                                           

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long from 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week reaching a high of 1.617%, closing at 1.605%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades we appear, shockingly, to be rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive, and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We are currently thinking that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all or most of wave *b* at the 1.617% high. If that is the case we should soon be falling in wave *c*, which as a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%.

 

Another very bearish option is that the rally from 0.398% low to the 1.765% level is a 3 wave corrective rally, which would suggest that rates will be heading back to the 0.398% low. We currently do not see this as a plausible option, but from an Ewaves point of view it is.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc10oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 80.11, closing at 79.35!

 

We continue to work on wave i of C and within wave i, with our wave (iv) bullish triangle ended at the 69.39 low, as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

We are now thrusting higher in wave (v), which should see a run to the $90/95 level below it ends.

 

We have now satisfied all of the minimum requirements for completed wave (v) based on price, but the internal wave structure is still not complete at the 80.11 high, so wee expect higher prices lie ahead, before all of wave i end.

 

After wave i ends we expect a wave ii correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 23.17, closing at 23.10!

 

We are still working on wave iii that is subdividing and within that wave we completed all of wave (i) at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 17.10 low.

 

We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

We expect much higher in Suncor over the next couple of months.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                           

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially lower this past week reaching a low of 4278.94, but we closed higher at 4391.34!

 

We know think that all of wave (iii) is complete at the 4545.85 high and we are now starting to fall in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 4125.95;

38.2% = 3866.19.

 

The SP500 was very choppy this week, but we still expect it move lower in wave (iv). It is too early to say what type of corrective pattern wave (iv) will turn into.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways this past week, closing just marginally higher at 94.08!

 

We continue to work on a bearish wave *iv* of -iii- triangle, although it looks like wave $c$ of *iv* is still underway, although it could now be complete at the 94.52 high.

 

Wave $c$ can rally as high as the wave $a$ high of 94.80, for our current bearish triangle option to remain valid.

 

After wave $c$ ends we still expect a wave *d* drop that cannot fall below the wave *b* low of 89.17 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Our current projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 94.81.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 94.81! 

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX moved sideways this past week, although we closed higher at 877.48!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction just does not want to seem to come to an end as we made a new low within this corrective pattern this week.

 

We are  still waiting for confirmation that all of our current wave -ii- of .iii. correction is finally complete, at the 847.92 low.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave -iii-. We will provide an updated projection for the end of wave -iii- when we believe all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 31.36, closing at 30.67!

 

We continue to wait for confirmation that our lengthy and complex wave *ii* of -3- correction is finally complete at the 28.83 low.

 

We have satisfied all of our minimum conditions for the completion of all of wave *ii* at this low.

 

This week we rallied back to the upper trend line of ending diagonal triangle formation and also challenged horizontal support at the 30.64/30.68 level.

 

We need to break and close above both of resistance levels to confirm at all of wave *ii* is compete the 28.83 low, and that our sharp wave *iii* is finally starting. We think this will happen this week.

 

If you believe in higher gold prices, gold stocks are all on sale at these prices.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                                                                                                                     

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions this week also.

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ewoc1021gdx.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 56048, closing at 55243!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we continue to doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like from the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which now looks to be complete at the 28908 low. This low should be the end of wave (a).

 

We continue to rally higher in wave (b), which has our last retracement level as:

 

78.6% = 57166.

 

After wave (b) ends we still expect on more drop in wave (c) back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 of B, and then the glorious C wave higher begins!!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

MAY 23 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2321gold.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was higher this past week reaching a high of 1891.30, closing at 1876.70!

                                                                          

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^!

 

This past week we broke through major resistance at out red downtrend line connecting 2077.90 and 1962.50.

 

Our next resistance is at the 1880.00 level which we expect to break through this week and then after that we should be heading to the 1960.00/1965.00 resistance level.

                                                                             

Our next projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 1952.40.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 2687.80.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We suspect that wave *iii* will likely extend since wave ^iii^ of *iii* is now projected to be higher than the current complete wave *iii* projection.     

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2321si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was higher past week reaching a high of 28.90, but only closing marginally higher at 27.49.  

                                                                  

Wave ii is complete at the 21.96 low and we are now rallying higher in wave iii of 3, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 51.52.

 

Within wave iii, we completed wave (i) at 29.91 and all of wave (ii) at the 23.74 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii) of iii, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 34.22.

 

Expect higher prices next week.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was lower this past week reaching a lower of 1.631%, closing just marginally lower at 1.632%.

 

It appears that the bear market in US interest is now over and it ended at the 0.398% low. Over the next couple of decades we are now rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s.

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

Within that impulsive sequence we are rallying in wave (iii) which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618 (i) =1.910%.

 

We expect to move higher in the weeks ahead as we head toward the 1.910% level. We are currently working on the internal subdivision count within wave (iii). After wave (iii) ends we expect a wave (iv) drop that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2321oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 67.02, but we closed lower at 63.58.

 

We had a key weekly reversal lower this past week this could be suggesting that all of wave ^b^ is now complete at the 67.02 high.

 

It now looks like wave -i- is complete at the 67.98 high so we should still be falling in developing wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 50.81

61.8% = 46.81.

 

We are also challenging our multi-year breakout of our major downtrend line. We are still short of retracement levels for our wave -ii- correction, so we still expect lower prices ahead.

 

We still expect a drop at least back to our 50% retracement level of 50.81, before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally higher in wave -iii-.

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/2021may23su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 24.34, but we closed marginally lower at 23.15!

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and likely all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-=31.29.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                         

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay23sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 4188.72, but we closed lower at 4155.86.

 

From the 3723.34 low we have now completed the minimum requirements for a completed 5 wave impulsive sequence at the 4238.04 high, and we are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iii) of v is complete at that high.

 

We should therefore be falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels;

 

23.6% = 3889.53;

38.2% = 3674.95.

 

It is too early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (iv) is going to become.

 

Active Positions: Short with calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2321usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 89.63, closing at 90.00.

 

Wave -iv- is now complete at the 93.47 high, so we should now be heading lower in wave -v-.

 

 Expect further losses, with a drop to at least the 88.15 low.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay2321cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was higher this past reaching a high of 957.47, closing at 957.22!

 

It appears that wave $ii$ is now complete at the 902.36 low. If that is the case then we should start to rally sharply higher in wave $iii$. We will provide your first projections for the end of wave $iii$, when we believe all of the wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

Wave .iii. is now subdividing and if that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii- of .iii. Our initial projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- =1.618-i- = 1592.50.                           

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay23gdx.png  

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 40.13, closing at 39.29!

 

We to rally sharply higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i*= 78.63.

 

Within wave *iii*  we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following extended projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- =2.618-i- = 41.70.

 

It now looks like wave -iii- is subdividing with wave $i$ ending at 36.84, and all of wave $ii$ just short of our 50% retracement level at 34.31. We are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has the following initial project endpoint:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 42.70.

 

Expect higher prices next week.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.                               

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and we added to our long positions at 31.50!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1221bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin collapsed this past week reaching a low of 29925, closing at 33576!

 

All of wave 1 or A is officially complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 of B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

We have already entered our retracement zone for all of wave 2 or B, but we doubt that it is complete so quickly.

 

On the Daily Chart it looks like form the 64860 high we are falling in an impulsive sequence which does NOT look to be complete at the 29925 low.

 

We need one more drop below that low to satisfy all of the minimum requirement for our first impulsive sequence to be complete.

 

After that happens we would have completed of wave (a). After wave (a) ends we expect a wave (b) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (a) drop. After wave (b) end we expect one more drop in wave (c) to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

We have graphically shown our suggested path for all of wave 2 or B on our Bitcoin Weekly Chart!

 

Thanks,

Captain & Crew

may 18 xau update

XAU Chart Update From The Captain!!

Please click here: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821xau.png

Also, for you those of you who are fans of traditional flag and pennant patterns, please click here:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821xau2.png Editor Stu adds a bull pennant to the chart, and these tend to fly a “half mast”… which is in sync with the Captain’s massive C wave upside forecast!

Have a golden day!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew