All posts by captainewave

JUNE 10 CAPTAIN UPDATE

The Captain’s Denmark meetings week is suddenly back on, and on while he’s in San Diego, so posts are up in the air a bit.   

He does have a post coming in an hour or so, and sends this note now:

For Subs that are currently not in these markets, Friday’s sell off provides a huge opportunity to buy all of these markets… very aggressively!

 

Thanks!

Ewave Crew

JULY 21 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 616.05, closing at 617.63.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 555.25 low, although we are currently not sure what our internal count for wave $v$ of (c) of -ii- looks like.

 

We will need to take another look at what is going on.

 

If wave -ii- ended at the 555.25 low then within wave -iii-, we are now rallying in wave (i). Within wave (i), it looks like all of wave $i$ ended at the 637.12 high and we are now falling in a more complex double 3 type wave $ii$ correction. Our retracement levels for all of wave $ii$ are:

 

50% = 596.19;

61.8% = 586.52.

 

Within wave $ii$, our first 3 wave pattern ran from 637.12 to 591.40, which was then followed by a wave !x! rally that ended at 642.27. We are now falling in our second 3 wave pattern with wave !a! ending at 600.81 and wave !b! at the 624.56 high.

 

We have now reached our minimum target for the end of our second wave !c!, so we need to be on guard for the completion of all of wave $ii$ and the start of another rally in wave $iii$.

 

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave $iii$, when we believe that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123gdxd.png                                                                            

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 31.36, closing at 31.39.

 

Our long-term count for the GDX now suggests that wave B has become a bullish triangle. In this count all of wave A ended at the 53.07 high in 2008 and all of wave c of triangle B is complete at the 21.52 low.

 

We continue to rally in a more complex wave d.

 

Wave is becoming more complex and likely a double 3 wave pattern. Our first 3 wave pattern ran from 21.52 to 36.26, and we are now falling in a wave (x).

 

Within wave (x) it now looks like wave *a* ended at 30.11 and wave *b* at 32.25 and it now looks like all of wave *c* is complete at the 28.76 low. We should now be starting to rally higher in our second wave (a).

 

Next major resistance is the 33.06 level.

 

Ideally, we would like to see wave d rally to at least the red down trendline connecting 45.78 and 41.60, that is shown in our Weekly GDX Chart. This would be around the 39.00 level.  

 

Wave d cannot trade above our wave b high of 45.78, for our larger wave B triangle formation to remain valid.

 

There is an outside chance that all of wave d ended at the 36.26 high and all of wave e ended at the 28.76 low. This would suggest that all of our wave B bullish triangle ended at the 28.76 low and that we have started to thrust higher in wave C.

 

This will be our alternate count.

 

Kinross (Updated April 17th, 2023):

 

Wave A ended at 31.88 in 1996, and since that high was made, we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that looks like:

 

a = 1.12;

b = 27.40;

c = 1.31;

d is now underway;

e drop after wave d ends to complete all of wave B.

 

Wave d looks to have become a complex series of 3 wave patterns, with our first pattern running from 1.31 to 10.32. We have just completed our first wave (x) at the 3.00 low. We should now be starting our second 3 wave pattern, as shown on our Monthly Chart.

 

We anticipated that our second wave (a) will take several more months to develop.

 

Wave d cannot rally above the wave b high of 27.40, for this current wave B triangle formation to remain valid.

 

ABX (Updated January 03rd, 2023):  

 

Wave A was a 3-wave rally that ended at 54.43 in 2008 and we are currently working on a wave B bullish triangle. Within that triangle we have completed waves a, b and c as follows:

 

a = 5.81;

b = 30.69;

c = 13.01.

 

We are now starting to  ally in wave d, which cannot rally above the wave b high of 30.69, for this triangle option to remain valid. Wave d must consist of at least one 3 wave pattern, but can have up to three such patterns, before it ends. Now we do not know which internal wave pattern wave d will consist of. After wave d ends, we expect a wave e drop to complete all of the wave B bullish triangle.

 

After wave B ends, we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave C.

  

HUI (Updated April 13th, 2023):

 

Wave A ended at 519.61 in 2008, and it looks like all of wave B has become a bullish triangle with the following endpoints:

 

(a) = 99.19;

(b) = 373.85;

(c) = 172.86:

(d) rally is now underway;

(e) drop after wave (d) ends to complete all of the wave B bullish triangle.

 

Within wave (d) it looks like wave a ended at 267.35 and wave b at 210.09, so we are now rallying in wave c, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

c = 1.618a = 362.97.

 

Wave (d) cannot rally above the wave (b) high of 373.85, for our current wave B triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After wave B ends, we expect a sharp thrust higher in C to all time new highs for this market.

 

XAU (Updated April 13th, 2023):

 

Wave B ended at the 38.37 low in 2016 and we are now rallying in a long-term wave C. Within wave C , we completed wave i at 101.76 and all of a complex wave ii at 60.59. We are now rallying in wave iii, which that following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.236i = 329.11.

 

Within wave iii, we believe that wave (i) ended at 167.09 and wave (ii) at 90.08. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which ahs an initial projcted endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 262.40.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks like wave -i- ended at 139.37 and wave -ii- at 110.09, and we are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projcted endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 189.84

 

We expect higher prices in the months ahead as we continue to rally higher in wave -iii- of (iii).   

 

SSR Mining (Updated January 09th, 2023):

 

Wave A ended at 48.16 in 2007, and since that high was made, we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that has the following make-up, so far:

 

a = 3.66;

b = 25.32;

c = 15.01;

d rally is now underway;

e drop after wave d ends.

 

Wave d cannot rally above the wave b high of 25.32 for this current bullish triangle formation to remain valid. After wave d ends, we expect a wave e drop that will complete this multi-year bullish triangle.

 

Newmont Mining: (Updated January 13th, 2023):

 

Newmont Mining is following a rather complex Ewave pattern, as we are currently working on a double 3 wave pattern, likely all within a larger multi-decade wave (A). Within the wave (A), we completed our first 3 ABC pattern in 1996 at 79.83, which was followed by a wave X drop to 12.44. After wave X ended, we are now rallying in our second ABC pattern, with wave A ending at 61.19 and wave B at 15.02. We are now rallying in wave C and within wave C we are now rallying in wave iii, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 2.618i = 106.71.

 

Within wave iii, we completed wave (ii) at 37.45 and we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 131.33.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for our second wave C is:

 

C = 2.618A = 142.65.                                                                                                 

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1961.10.

 

We are using the symbol XAU/USD for our current gold pricing analysis.

 

Wave *d* ended at the 2080.70 spike high and we are now falling in wave *e*. We do not know which internal wave pattern wave *e* will become but for the moment will assume that is it is a simple 3 wave pattern.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^a^ is complete at the 1893.00 low and that we have started to rally higher in wave ^b^. Our projections for the end of wave ^b^ are:

 

50% = 1986.90;

61.8% = 2009.00.

 

We have reached our 50% retracement level (1987.50) for wave ^b^, so we need to be on guard for its potential completion, and that start of another drop in wave ^c^, although it is still possible that we could move higher to the 61.8% retracement level, before all of wave ^b^ ends.

 

The drop in wave ^c^ back to at least the wave ^a^ low of 1893.00 will complete all of wave *e* and all of the very large bullish wave .iv. triangle.

 

We did have a key daily reversal lower in yesterday’s trading session which may have marked the end of wave ^b^ at the 1987.50 high.

 

On the Intraday Chart our alternate bullish triangle option, which started at the 1963.90, still remains valid although it has expanded and extended. The legs of our potential bullish triangle look like:

 

!a! = 1945.90;

!b! = 1987.50;

!c! = 1961.10, if complete and we cannot fall below the 1945.90 low;

!d! is now underway and we cannot rally above the 1987.60 high;

!e! after wave !d! ends, which cannot trade below the wave !c! low, to complete all of this bullish triangle.

 

There is still an outside that chance that the recent drop could be all of wave *e* and not just wave ^a^ of *e* and in this case our wave .iv. bullish triangle is complete at the 1893.00 low and that we have started to thrust sharpy higher in wave .v. of -iii-.

 

Wave *e* can fall as low as the wave *c* low of 1614.90 and our bullish triangle formation will remain valid.

 

Wave *e* could also become a bullish triangle.

 

Our current projected target for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 4.236-i- = 2531.10. 

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 24.85.

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, all of wave -i- of (i) ended at the 24.39 high and wave -ii- at the 19.94 low. We are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 30.26.

 

Wave $ii$ is complete at the 22.14 low and we are now rallying in wave $ii$, which ash the following initial endpoint:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 32.32.

 

It looks like wave $iii$ is going to subdivide with wave !i! of $iii$ perhaps ending at the 25.48 high.

 

If that is the case then we should expect a wave !ii! drop that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave !i! rally.

 

 We also had a key daily reversal lower in silver which may have marked the end of wave !i! and the 25.48 high.

 

Longer term we still expect to move higher in wave $iii$ for the next couple of weeks to a month.

 

We will provide our retracement levels for wave !ii! in the next day or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long with puts as stops.                                                                                     

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!                                                                                                                                           

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 3.874%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 3.835%!

 

All of wave (iii) is complete at the 4.333% high and we are still working on a complex wave (iv) correction, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3.426%;

38.2% = 2.870%.

 

We have updated our internal count for wave (iv) to suggest that we are working a 3 wave corrective pattern with wave -a- ending at 3.402%. Wave -b- has become double 3 wave pattern.

 

Our first 3 wave pattern ran from 3.402 to 4.091%, which was followed a wave *x* that ended at 3.253%. We are now rallying in our second 3 wave pattern, which is now complete at the 4.094% high.

 

We are now falling in wave -c-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-c- = -a- = 3.163%

 

We expect wave -c- will be an impulsive sequence and we likely completed our first wave down from 4.094 to 3.792%. We are now rallying in our first corrective wave which should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the initial drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50% = 3.943%;

61.8% = 3.979%.

 

We are still short of our 50% retracement level, so we should see further gains in the days ahead, before we turn down again.

 

After wave (iv) ends we expect another push higher in wave (v), which should at least reach the wave (iii) high of 4.333%.

 

 Our current plan is to go long at the end of wave (iv).

                                                                                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

                                                                           

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123sp120.png

 

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a low of high of 4527.56.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up by about 9 points.

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction.

 

We have now updated our count to adopt our large bearish triangle option as shown on our Daily SP500 Chart. In general, we are falling in a 3-wave pattern, and within that pattern we are falling in wave A.

 

Within wave A, we completed wave (a) at 4222.62 and we are now working on an expanding and extending wave (b) bearish triangle. Within that triangle, wave -c- looks to still be underway as it has become more complex, and very, very overstretched now.

 

A major reversal is likely very near.

 

We are watching a potential ending diagonal triangle formation on the Daily SP500 Chart, which may be nearing completion.

 

After wave -c- ends we expect a wave -d- drop that will be followed by another wave -e- rally to complete the entire wave (b) bearish triangle formation. After our large wave (b) bearish triangle ends we expect a very large thrust lower in wave (c) to complete all of wave A.

 

We will need to update our 60 Min SP500 Chart to reflect our the expanding and extending bearish wave (b) triangle option.

                                                                                                                                                                                         

Trading Recommendation: Go short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Very short with calls as stops!

 

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 100.86.

 

All of wave ^c^ is complete at the 114.75 high and we are now falling in wave ^d^. The wave ^d^ drop must consist of at least one 3 wave pattern, so for the moment we will assume that we are falling in wave a of ^d^.

 

Our wave -iv- bearish triangle is complete at the 103.28 high, so we are now falling in wave -v- of a.

 

We should see further weakness over the next couple of weeks to a month as wave -v- unfolds, although it could now be possible that all of wave -v- and wave a are complete at the 99.22 low.

 

If that is the case then we are starting to rally sharply higher in wave b. the other option is that wave -v- is still underway and we are just correcting the drop from 103.28 to 99.22, with those retracement levels being:

 

50% = 101.26;

61.8% = 101.73.

 

Our preferred option is that wave -v- and a are still underway. 

                                                                                                                                 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ewjul2123oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was initially lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 74.53, but after that low was made we moved higher and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 76.74!

 

We have updated our internal wave count for wave ii as shown on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

It appears to be a very complex 3 wave corrective pattern with wave a ending at 92.93 and wave b at 123.68. Wave c had become a very complex ending diagonal triangle formation, which likely ended at the 63.57 spike low.

 

However only a break now of the wave (iv) of c high of 83.53 will confirm that. We do have a wave c projected endpoint of:

 

c = 1.618a = 62.89.

 

We cannot rule the possibility that this ending diagonal triangle could extend and expand.

 

Next resistance is the downtrend line connecting 93.74 and 83.53, which we are now again challenging, and a strong break and close above this line will confirm that all of wave ii is complete at the 63.57 low and that a sharp rally in wave iii is now underway.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with puts as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

FEB 6 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 619.68, closing at 620.09!

 

We have broken above the 625.99 high, which has eliminated our ending diagonal triangle formation for wave $v$. This suggests that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 555.25 low, although we are currently not sure what our internal count for wave $v$ of (c) of -ii- looks like. We will need to take another look at what is going on.

 

In the meantime, we are now working on the assumption that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 555.25 low and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-.  

 

Next resistance is the 625.99 level, which we are still trying to break through.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 30.21, closing at 30.32!

 

Our long-term count for the GDX now suggests that wave B has become a bullish triangle. In this count all of wave A ended at the 53.07 high in 2008 and all of wave c of triangle B is complete at the 21.52 low. We are now rallying in wave d.

 

It now looks like wave d has become a double 3 wave rally as shown on our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts. The first 3 wave rally ran from the wave c low of 21.52 to 28.49 and was followed by a wave (x) bullish triangle. We think within our second 3 wave rally that wave (a) ended at 32.75 and if that is the case then we are now falling in our second wave (b) which has retracement levels as follows:

 

50% = 30.58;

61.8% = 30.07.

 

It looks like our second wave (b) also consists of a double 3 wave corrective pattern, with our second wave *c* having a projected endpoint of:

 

*c* = 1.618*a* = 30.07.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of our second wave (b) and the start of another rally in our second wave (c). After this second wave (c) rally ends we think this will complete all of wave d.

 

No matter how complex wave d becomes it cannot trade above our wave b high of 45.78, for our larger wave B triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Kinross (Updated January 04th, 2023):

 

Wave A ended at 31.88 in 1996, and since that high was made, we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that looks like:

 

a = 1.12;

b = 27.40;

c = 1.31;

d is now underway;

e drop after wave d ends to complete all of wave B.

 

Wave d looks to have become a complex series of 3 wave patterns, with our first pattern running from 1.31 to 10.32. We have just completed our first wave (x) at the 3.00 low. We should now be starting our second 3 wave pattern, as shown on our Monthly Chart.

 

We anticipated that our second wave (a) will take several months to develop.

 

Wave d cannot rally above the wave b high of 27.40, for this current wave B triangle formation to remain valid.

 

ABX (Updated January 03rd, 2023):  

 

Wave A was a 3-wave rally that ended at 54.43 in 2008 and we are currently working on a wave B bullish triangle. Within that triangle we have completed waves a, b and c as follows:

 

a = 5.81;

b = 30.69;

c = 13.01.

 

We are now starting to  ally in wave d, which cannot rally above the wave b high of 30.69, for this triangle option to remain valid. Wave d must consist of at least one 3 wave pattern, but can have up to three such patterns, before it ends. Now we do not know which internal wave pattern wave d will consist of. After wave d ends, we expect a wave e drop to complete all of the wave B bullish triangle.

 

After wave B ends, we expect a very sharp thrust higher in wave C.

  

HUI (Updated January 06th, 2023):

 

Wave A ended at 519.61 in 2008, and it looks like all of wave B has become a bullish triangle with the following endpoints:

 

(a) = 99.19;

(b) = 373.85;

(c) =172.86:

(d) rally is now underway;

(e) drop after wave (d) ends to complete all of the wave B bullish triangle.

 

Wave (d) cannot rally above the wave (b) high of 373.85, for our current wave B triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After wave B ends, we expect a sharp thrust higher in C to all time new highs for this market.

 

XAU (Updated January 06th, 2023):

 

Wave B ended at the 38.37 low in 2016 and we are now rallying in a long-term wave C. Within wave C , we completed wave i at 101.76 and all of a complex wave ii at 60.59. We are now rallying in wave iii, which that following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.236i = 329.11.

 

Within wave iii, we believe that wave (i) ended at 167.09 and wave (ii) at 90.08. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which ahs an initial projcted endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 262.40.

 

We expect higher prices in the months ahead as we continue to rally higher in wave (iii).   

 

SSR Mining (Updated January 09th, 2023):

 

Wave A ended at 48.16 in 2007, and since that high was made, we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that has the following make-up, so far:

 

a = 3.66;

b = 25.32;

c = 15.01;

d rally is now underway;

e drop after wave d ends.

 

Wave d cannot rally above the wave b high of 25.32 for this current bullish triangle formation to remain valid. After wave d ends, we expect a wave e drop that will complete this multi-year bullish triangle.

 

Newmont Mining: (Updated January 13th, 2023):

 

Newmont Mining is following a rather complex Ewave pattern, as we are currently working on a double 3 wave pattern, likely all within a larger multi-decade wave (A). Within the wave (A), we completed our first 3 ABC pattern in 1996 at 79.83, which was followed by a wave X drop to 12.44. After wave X ended, we are now rallying in our second ABC pattern, with wave A ending at 61.19 and wave B at 15.02. We are now rallying in wave C and within wave C we are now rallying in wave iii, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 2.618i = 106.71.

 

Within wave iii, we completed wave (ii) at 37.45 and we are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 131.33.

 

Longer term our current projected endpoint for our second wave C is:

 

C = 2.618A = 142.65.            

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was sharply lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued early in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1861.20.

 

After that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high of 1881.30!

 

We are using the symbol XAU/USD for our current gold pricing analysis.

 

As indicated in our last Weekly Post we have revised the location of the end of wave *c* of our very large wave .iv. bullish triangle to 1614.90 (XAU). From that low we continue to rally in wave *d*, which now appears to have become a double 3 wave rally, as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

From the wave *c* low of 1614.90 our first 3 wave pattern ran to 1786.70, and that was followed by a wave ^x^ bullish triangle that ended at 1785.10. Within our second 3 wave rally, wave ^a^ ended at 1949.30 and we are now falling in our second wave ^b^ that has a retracement level of:

 

50% = 1867.20;

61.8% = 1847.80.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of our second wave ^b^ and the start of another rally in wave ^c^. This next rally in our second wave ^c^ will likely complete all of wave *d*.

 

In the bigger picture, our wave *d* rally that cannot trade above our wave *b* high of 2089.20, and then after wave *d* ends we expect another drop in wave *e*, which cannot trade below the wave *c* of 1614.90. We have shown this graphically in our Daily Gold Chart. 

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 22.23. After that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high of 22.64!

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, we are working on wave -i- of (i). Now we do have an internal wave structure to offer, so we will need to take a closer look over the next day or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long with puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 3.616%!

 

All of wave (iii) is complete at the 4.333% high and we are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 3.426%;

38.2% = 2.870%.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation at that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 3.334% low and if that is the case then we start to rally higher in wave (v). However, we still have lower projections for the end of wave -c- of (iv), as follows:

 

-c- = -a- = 2.974%;

-c- = 1.618-a- = 2.399%.

 

Wave (v) should see rates rally again to at least to the wave (iii) high of 4.333%.  

                                                                                                                                                                            

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was sharply lower in Friday’s trading session reaching a low of 4123.36. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 27 points!

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (iii), that appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ending at 3858.87 and all of wave -ii- at the 4325.28 high. We are now falling in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3065.78.

 

On the Intraday Chart it looks like within wave -iii-, wave .i. ended at 3491.58, all of wave .ii. looks to still be underway. We have updated our internal wave count for wave .ii. to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave correction, that is getting very close to completion. Our last retracement level for all of wave .ii. is:

 

78.6% = 4146.87.

 

We have now exceeded our 78.6% retracement level so we must start to turn down very soon in wave .iii. We will provide our updated projected endpoint for all of wave .iii., when we believe that all of wave .ii. is complete.

 

Currently, we do not have an alternate count for the SP500.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 3259.58.

                                                                                                                                                                                           

Trading Recommendation: Go short with calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Very short with calls as stops!

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/ewjul1521usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was sharply higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 103.29!

 

All of wave ^c^ is complete at the 114.75 high and we are now falling in wave ^d^. The wave ^d^ drop must consist of at least one 3 wave pattern, so for the moment we will assume that we are falling in wave a of ^d^.

 

On our Daily USDX Chart we have shown a possible count for wave a where all of wave -iii- is now complete at the 100.68 low. If that is the case we are now rallying in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 103.78;

38.2% = 105.70.

 

We still expect higher prices as wave -iv- continues to unfold.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another drop in wave -v- to complete all of wave a.

                                                                                                                                            

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ewfeb623oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 73.11.

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, wave (i) ended at 130.50, and it looks like wave (ii) has become a triple 3 wave corrective pattern that continues to unfold, however the retracement level for this drop has become very deep, which could be suggesting that our count is not correct.

 

As we mentioned in our End of Week Post, our alternate count would be that all of wave i ended at the 130.50 high and we are now falling in wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 68.50;

61.8% = 53.87.

 

We will stay with our current count for the moment, but our confidence level remains very low. 

 

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

 

Suncor: We have updated our Suncor Monthly Chart to show that all of wave A ended at 74.34 back in 2008. We completed our wave B correction at the 9.60 low in 2020, and we are now rallying higher in wave C. Within wave C we believe we are rallying in wave i and within wave I, we are rallying in wave (iii).

 

Within wave (iii) we are still working on wave -iv-, although it could be complete at the 26.42 low. After wave -iv- ends we expect a wave -v- rally to complete all of wave (iii). Our initial projection for then of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 43.00.

 

The reason this Monthly Chart is different than our previous chart is that splits and dividends have not been removed from the stock price, which provides a much more accurate analysis.                                                                                          

 

Trading Recommendation: Go Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

JUNE 8 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 714.97, although after that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high of 723.11, closing at 722.77!

 

Longer term to CDNX is now rallying in wave (i) of C. Within wave (i) of C, all of wave -i- ended at 1113.64 and all of wave -ii- at the 660.77 low. We are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1927.65.

 

Within wave (i) of -ii-, it looks like wave $i$ ended at 716.88 and wave $ii$ at 688.75. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which the following projected endpoints:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 779.54

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 835.65.

 

We are expecting higher prices in the days ahead as it looks like wave $iii$ is subdividing.                                                                                     

                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 32.63, closing at 32.53.

 

Wave B is complete at the 29.66 low, and we have started to rally higher again in wave i of C.

 

Within wave i, it looks like wave -i- ended at 31.66 and all of wave -ii- at 31.54.

 

We should now be rallying in an extending wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.66.

 

Within wave -iii-, all of wave *i* ended at 32.36 and wave *ii* at the 31.55 low, so we are now starting to rally higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 34.67.  

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 36.60.

 

We have graphically shown our expected path of all of wave -iii- on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Updates to have been completed, with noted dates for their updates.

 

Kinross (Updated May 12, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 30.41 in 1996, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 1.07;

b = 26.14;

c = 1.31;

d = 10.24;

e = 3.94, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 1.31 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 30.41.

 

ABX (Updated May 12, 2022):  

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 47.34 in 2008, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 5.69;

b = 31.01;

c = 17.19;

d = 26.07;

e = 20.04, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 17.19 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 47.34.

  

HUI (Updated May 12, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 519.61 in 2008, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 99.19;

b = 373.85;

c = 224.28;

d = 338.04;

e = 238.55, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 1.31 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 519.61.

 

XAU (Updated May 30, 2022):

 

Wave B ended at the 38.37 low in 2016 and we are now rallying in a long-term wave C. Within wave C , we completed wave i at 101.76 and all of a complex wave ii at 62.72. We are now rallying in wave iii, which that following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.236i = 331.24.

 

Within wave iii, we believe that wave (i) at 167.09 and all of wave (ii) at 119.77. We should now be starting to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 288.64.

 

We expect higher prices in the weeks ahead..   

 

SSR Mining (Updated May 13, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 45.58 in 2007, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 5.28;

b = 33.11;

c = 17.05;

d = 30.89;

e = 23.94, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 17.05 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 45.58.   

 

Note: In general, if all the above noted wave B’s ended at their suggested lows, then the projections for wave C will be either:

 

C = 1.618A;

C = 2.618A.

 

In either case the potential movement in these gold indices and gold stocks is massive and will surprise many people.                

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1858.10.

 

In the overnight session we moved a bit lower reaching a low of 1847.80.

 

We are now working on the assumption that our very large wave .iv. bullish triangle ended at the 1785.00 low. We are now in the initial stages of a very large thrust higher in wave .v. of -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.236-i- = 2531.10.

 

Within wave ^i^ of *i* of .v., we completed wave $i$ at 1869.10 and wave $ii$ at 1830.20. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1966.30.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 1830.20 to 1877.50 is impulsive looking and the drop from 1877.50 to 1838.90 is corrective looking, with our 78.6% retracement level being 1840.30.

 

If that observation is correct then after this correction ends, which could be at the 1838.90 low, we expect gold to move higher again. The other option that that our wave $ii$ correction has become more complex, and it is still underway, which indicates that gold could fall back to the 1830.20 low one more time, before all of wave $ii$ ends.  

 

We expect higher prices in the days ahead with next resistance at the 1868.00 level and then 1890.00/1895.00.

                      

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 22.30.

 

In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 21.90.

 

Wave ii is complete at the 20.42 low, and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial project endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618(i) = 49.98.

 

Within wave -i- of (i) of iii, we completed wave $i$ at the 22.48 and all of wave $ii$ at the 21.41 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which ash the fooling initial projected endpoint:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 24.74.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 21.41 to 22.52 was impulsive looking and the drop from 22.52 to 21.85 is corrective looking with our 61.8% retracement level being 21.83.

 

After this correction ends, which could be at the 21.85 low, we expect silver to move higher again.

 

We expect higher prices over the next couple of days with next resistance at 22.47/22.50, 23.34 and then 24.05.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822bond.png

  

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 2.957%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 3.020%.

 

The short-term direction of this market is unclear now, although we have now reached our minimum target of 3.004%. We will now see if this market starts to turn lower again.  

 

We still need to take closer look at this market on a longer-term basis from the 0.38% low and provide an updated count although we still think most of the current upside has now occurred.

 

Longer term we know that rates are going to moving substantially higher in the years ahead, but it will not be in a straight line.

                                                                                                                                                                                 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4164.86.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 12 points!

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (iii) which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3735.83.

 

Within wave (iii), we continue to believe that all of wave -i- ended at the 3858.87 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 4248.04;

61.8% = 4333.94.

 

Wave -ii- looks to have become an irregular type of correction as shown on our 120 min SP500 Chart. If this thinking is correct then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave .c., and within wave .c. it now appears that wave *iv* has become a bullish triangle that only need one more drop to become complete.

 

We appear to have complete 4 out of the 5 triangle legs with only another drop remaining to complete the pattern.

 

We cannot drop below the 4073.85 low for this triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After this wave *iv* bullish triangle ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave *v* to complete all of wave .c. and wave -ii-. Perhaps Friday’s US Inflation Report will provide the news for the thrust?

 

Expect the volatility to continue, and anyone long this market should consider exiting on this bear market rally.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Plan to short at 4310.00, using calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Plan to short at 4310.00, using calls as stops!

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 102.27. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 102.78, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 102.33!

 

The drop from 105.07 to the current low of 101.32 appears to be an INCOMPLETE impulsive sequence, which is suggesting that once this current corrective rally ends the USDX will drop one more time before the 101.65 low to complete an impulsive sequence that started at the 105.07 high.

 

This initial drop is currently labeled wave ^i^.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to still be working on a complex correction that started at the 101.32 low and may now be complete at the 102.85 high. After this correction ends, we should start to head lower again.

                                                                                                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 105.10.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 105.10!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 117.14. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 121.36!

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, with all of wave (i) ending at 130.50 high, and we now believe that wave (ii) has become more complex as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. Our retracement levels for all of wave (ii) are:

 

50% = 96.47;

61.8% = 88.43.

 

Within wave (ii), all of wave $a$ ended at 92.93 and we are now rallying higher in wave $b$. It looks like wave $b$ could reach or exceed the 130.50 high before it ends. After wave $b$ ends we expect a drop back to at least the wave $a$ low of 92.93 to complete aal of wave (ii).

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

No matter what now happens in the Ukraine/Russian war, millions of barrels on Russian oil have now disappeared from the world market that cannot easily be replaced, which will be very bullish for crude prices moving forward.

 

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97 and all of wave -ii- at the 22.22 low. We are now moving sharply higher in wave -iii-, which is now extending to our second projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 48.56.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii is (although it will likely need to be extended):                                                                                                                     

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

APR 18 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

CDNX moved sideways in Thursday’s trading session, although we closed marginally lower at 892.50!

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. is now complete at the 802.71 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to move sharply higher in wave -iii- of -iii-, as shown on our Daily CNDX Chart. Out first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1527.95.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are working on (i) and within wave (i), we should be working on wave $iii$, which has projected endpoints of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 914.22;

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ =

 

980.04.                                                                                                      

 

Next major resistance is 948.38.                                                                                                                        

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewap41822gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Thursday’s trading session reaching a high of 40.95, closing at 40.86!

 

All of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.33 low and longer term we have now rallied higher in wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.22.

 

Within wave *iii*, we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we are working on -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.59.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $iv$ ended at the 35.67 high and if that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $v$, which appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Within this ending diagonal triangle, it looks like wave !iii! is still underway. After wave !iii! ends we expect a wave !iv! drop that cannot fall below the wave !ii! low.

 

After wave !iv! ends we expect another rally in wave !v! to complete this ending diagonal triangle wave $v$ and all of wave -iii-. Diagonal triangles are like regular triangles… that like to expand.

 

The other option is that we are still working on an expanding wave $iv$ bullish triangle with wave !a! ending at 35.67 and are still rallying in a lengthy wave !b!. After wave !b! ends we should fall in wave !c! which cannot trade below the wave !a! low of 35.67.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated December 31st,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 27.74. We are now falling in an irregular type of wave -ii- correction which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.20;

61.8% = 18.41.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a large rally in wave -iii-. Within wave -ii-, wave $c$ appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle, which could be complete at the 17.27 low. After wave -ii- ends we will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii-.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 31st , 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated December 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Thursday’s day session reaching a low of 1962.70, although after that low was made, we moved higher, and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1997.10!

 

We are now thrusting sharply higher in wave .i. of -v-.

 

Within wave -v- we are working on wave .i., and within wave .i., it now looks like all of wave $v$ is complete at the 2078.80 high. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1915.90;

61.8% = 1877.50.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave .ii. is NOT complete at the 1893.20 low. It looks like within wave .ii., all of wave $a$ ended at 1895.20 and that the current rally is a complex wave $b$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1987.00;

61.8% = 2007.70.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for wave $b$ so we need to be on guard for its completion. After wave $b$ ends we expect another drop back to at least the wave $a$ low of 1893.20, in wave $c$ to complete all of wave .ii. 

 

Longer term, we still expect gold to move sharply higher with very big daily price swings, as we march to all time new highs.

                           

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Thursday’s day session reaching a low of 25.46.

 

In the overnight session we have blasted higher reaching a high of 26.46!

 

We are now rallying sharply higher in wave iii, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97!

 

Within wave iii, we are now rallying in wave -i- and within wave -i- we are rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 4.618$i$ = 31.54.

 

It looks like wave $iii$ is now subdividing. We have updated the location of where we think wave ^i^ ended to 27.50, and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave ^ii^ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 24.74;

61.8% = 24.09.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 24.05 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^. We will give this market another day or so before we provide our initial projections for the completion of wave ^iii^.

 

Next major resistance is 26.16.

 

We still expect much higher prices lie ahead, and still expect the daily trading ranges to continue to be large.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in Thursday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 2.884%!

 

It still looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3-wave irregular type correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low.

 

This wave *b* rally is now crazy stretched and should end very soon. After wave *b* ends we still expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%, to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.      

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in Thursday’s trading session reaching a low of 4390.77. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 15 points!

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (iii) which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3735.83.

 

The volatility should continue.  

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short using calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short using calls as stops.

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Thursday’s day session reaching a high of 100.77. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 100.48 level!

 

Our last retracement level for all of wave (ii) is:

 

78.6% = 100.79.

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level and if our current analysis is to remain valid, we need to turn down now.

 

We were stopped out of our short position on Thursday.

                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher again in Thursday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 108.00!

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, with all of wave (i) ending at 130.50 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.47;

61.8% = 88.43.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $a$ of (ii) ended at 93.53, wave $b$ at 116.64 and likely all of wave $c$ at the 92.93 low, to complete all of wave (ii). If that is the case, we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion at:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i)= 203.10.

 

Inflation in the world is just beginning!

 

No matter what now happens in the Ukraine/Russian war, millions of barrels on Russian oil have now disappeared from the world market that cannot easily be replaced, which will be very bullish for crude prices moving forward!

 

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97 and all of wave -ii- at the 22.22 low. We are now moving sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 38.50.

 

Next major resistance being the 34.56, which we are fast approaching.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:                                                                                                                     

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew