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may 18 xau update

XAU Chart Update From The Captain!!

Please click here: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821xau.png

Also, for you those of you who are fans of traditional flag and pennant patterns, please click here:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821xau2.png Editor Stu adds a bull pennant to the chart, and these tend to fly a “half mast”… which is in sync with the Captain’s massive C wave upside forecast!

Have a golden day!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

OCT 12 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Ewave Juniors:

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct1220cdnx.png

 

The CDNX has higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 732.25, and closing on that high at 732.25.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) of -iii- of .i. is now complete at the 665.41 low and we are now rallying in wave (v). Our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.

 

Our next resistance level is 760/765.

 

After breaking that level we should start to accelerate higher. Wave (iv) could still become more complex, but for now we will leave that as a possible alternate count.

                                                                                           

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct1220gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct1220gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 40.79, closing at 40.78.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^iv^ is complete at the 37.08 low in which case we are now starting to rally higher in wave ^v^.

 

Next resistance will be the red down trendline connecting 45.78 and 43.60.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave ^v^ and wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

There I still an outside chance that wave ^iv^ could become more complex, but for now that will be our alternate count.

 

We have updated our analysis and charts as of August 17th for the following:

 

Kinross: We continue to rally in wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 12.90.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 14.19.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 28.42 and all of wave -ii- at 22.13. We continue to rally in wave -iii- which has the following initial projection point for its completion:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 47.65.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI: We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

XAU: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct1220gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in Friday’s session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 1939.40. 

 

Either wave ^iv^ or wave $ii$ ended at the 1851.00 low. At this point we are now sure which one, but we will assume that it is wave ^iv^.

 

 In either case we should now be starting to move sharply higher again.

 

Wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii* have a current projected endpoint of :

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

There is still an outside that chance that wave ^iv^ or $ii$ could still be underway, but for now that will be our alternate count.

 

Next resistance is the downtrend line connecting 2024.60, 2001.20, 1983.80 and the overnight high of 1939.40. A strong break of that line sends us higher!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct1220si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher in Friday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 25.71.   

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low.

 

If this count is correct then silver is now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii). Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.37.

 

Next resistance 26.00/26.10 level.

 

If this revised count in silver is the correct analysis, then our alternate count in gold is likely also going to be correct.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct1220bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 0.799{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching a low of 0.771{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We should now be rallying in wave -c- which has a minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} … our wave -a- high. Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct1220spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoct1220sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in Friday’s trading session reaching a high of 3482.34.  In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 20 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Within wave (iii), it looks we completed a very deep wave .iv. of -iii- of (iii) correction at the 3209.45 low and we should now be rallying in wave .v.. Wave .iv. could still become more complex and perhaps even a bullish triangle, but for now will assume that it is complete.

 

Our projected endpoint for all of wave .v. and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

After wave -iii- ends we should expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.                                                                                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1220usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in Fridays’ day session reaching a low of 93.01. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 93.27.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave *iv* is now complete at the 94.80 high and we are therefore now falling in wave *v*. Our next projected endpoint for end of wave *v* and all of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72. We do have lower projections also.

 

The end of wave *iv* may coincide with the lows in gold, silver, CDNX and the GDX.

 

There is still an outside chance that wave *iv* could become more complex, but for now that will be our alternate count.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ewoc1220oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in Friday’s day session and that trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 39.70.

 

All of wave (i) ended at the 43.78 high and we are now falling in wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 25.14;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.74.

 

We expect further downside as wave (ii) develops.   

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave (i) ended at the 21.73 high and we are now falling in wave (ii) which has now exceeded for 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. Our last retracement level for wave (ii) is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 12.20.

 

We must continue to rally higher form here for our current count to remain valid, otherwise Suncor is heading back to at least the 9.61 low.   

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                      

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

jan 14 morning post

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments:

 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1536.70.

 

We are now rallying in wave *v*, and we have now adopted our alternate count with suggest that all of wave $i$ ended at the spike high of 1613.30. If that is the case we are now falling in wave $ii$.. Our retracement levels for all of wave $iv$ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1529.80;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1510.00.

 

The current low of 1536.70 is still a bit short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 1529.80, so we probably should expect a little more weakness before all of wave $ii$ ends.

 

The good news: Gold, silver and the GDX counts now all line up.

 

One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 17.69.    

                                                                                                                                              

We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, and have now completed wave $i$ of ^iii^ at the 18.89 high. We are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.73;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.46.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ and the start of another very sharp rally in wave $iii$ of ^iii^.  

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420oil.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 57.74, although we have since recovered some of those losses to currently be trading at the 58.62 level.

 

Wave $c$ of *c* is complete at the 65.65 high and we are now falling in wave *d*. Wave *d* will be a corrective looking which will include at least one 3 wave pattern and should move down to our lower red trendline that marks the boundaries of our bearish wave (b) triangle.

 

Based on the current position of this trendline wave *d* should reach the 52.00/53.00 level before it ends. Wave *d* cannot trade below the wave *b* low of 50.52 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

We plan to take profits on all of our short positions at the 52.00/53.00 level.   

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is likely complete at the 34.50 high. If that is the case we should now be starting to fall sharply in wave (iii).  

 

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short crude with a call as a stop. Short Suncor risking to $36.00!                            

  

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420bond.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 1.837{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

It is now looking like wave (iv) is still underway and becoming more complex. On the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart we have shown a possible internal wave count for wave (iv) which includes a bullish triangle that likely ended at the 1.766{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, within our wave *b* bullish triangle.

 

If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave *c* which has minimum target of at least the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high to complete all of wave (iv).

 

For our current wave *b* triangle to remain valid we cannot drop below the 1.693{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level. Otherwise this triangle is likely expanding and extending.  

 

Once wave (iv) ends we suspect that wave (v) has a minimum target of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but we suspect a drop to 1.000{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} should be expected.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420spd.png

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching another all-time new high at 3288.13!

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 2 points.

 

On the 120 Min SP500 Chart we have shown that we are now rallying in an extending wave $v$ of -c-, if our bearish count alternate count is correct.

 

The SP500 continues to reach all time new highs, but we are still thinking that the bearish counts case is also possible. On our Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we have shown our alternate bearish count that is suggesting the wave -b- has become a double 3 corrective wave pattern.

 

For now, our current bullish is still preferred. Our subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short at 2950.0, with a call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short at 2950.00, with a call as stop! 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX moved sideways in yesterday’s day session but in the overnight session we have moved higher to have reached a high of 97.31.

 

We are waiting for sharp break below our lower red trend line connecting 95.17 and 95.36.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of sharp wave ^iii^ lower. Our retracement levels for all wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.11;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.40.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at 99.33. Once wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp wave (iii) drop will be the next big event in this market.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 100.00.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00! 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420cdnx.png  

 

 

The CDNX was lower in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a low of 571.70.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 591.23 to the current low of 571.70 looks corrective, which is suggesting higher prices lie ahead once this corrective pattern ends!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts.

 

We should now be heading back to the wave -a- high of 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv. Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1420gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session and we reached a low of 27.75.

 

We have updated our current count to suggest that all of wave -i- of (v) ended at the 29.87 high. If that is the case we are now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.35.

 

Our current low has now entered our retracement levels, so, as noted in yesterday’s key alert, we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of sharp rally in wave -iii-!!  

 

With our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

 

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

JAN 7 WEEKEND POST

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE

 

 Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan718gold.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold should rally sharply in 2018!!!

 

Gold has traded sharply higher since our last Weekly Post…and this week we reached a high of weekly post 1327.20!

 

WE are now rallying in wave -iii-, and within wave ^-ii-, we should be getting close to the end of wave ^i^ of -iii-. Upon completion of wave ^i^ we should expect a wave ^ii^ correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70. 

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan718si.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Silver was also sharply higher with gold, since our last Weekly Post and we expect that trend to continue!

 

We are now rallying in wave ^i^ of .iii, as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart. We are probably getting close to the end of wave ^i^ and upon its completion we expect a wave ^ii^ correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. Silver should also move sharply higher in 2018.

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.

 

Crude:

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Weekly Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan718oil.png

 

Crude traded higher since our last Weekly Post reaching a high of 62.20, this past week. We should now be working on the final subdivisions of wave ^c^ of *b*. Upon completion of wave *b* we expect crude to move sharply lower for most of 2018, in wave *c*. We do have a ^c^ = ^a^ projection of 63.05.

 

The most important takeaway from the current Weekly Crude chart is that: “The rally from the wave *a* low of 39.19 is NOT impulsive, so we do not think that crude is going to rally in a new bull market, until we revisit the 39.19 low one more time.”

 

In the very long term, we are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low.

 

If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading, in the big wave counts picture, sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Suncor:

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ewsep1617su.png

 

Suncor was higher with crude since our last Weekly Posy, as we are waiting for confirmation that all of wave .b. is complete at the 38.39 high. Once wave .b. ends we expect one more drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Active Positions: Short crude with 63.00 call as the stop, and plan to go long in Suncor at 26.00.

 

S&P: 

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The S&P was sharply higher since our last Weekly Post. To repeat: As we and likely many others have been saying for quite some time this market is very overvalued and overstretched by almost every technical indicator. The top should be marked by a very violent move, perhaps an epic move, to the downside.

 

Active Positions: Very Short, with calls at various levels, as stops.

 

USDX:

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The USDX continued to move lower, since our last Weekly Post as we reached a low of 91.47, this past week.

 

We are now falling in wave ^v^ of *iii* and expect this market still has lots of downside left for this drop ends.  

 

We expect that the USDX should trade lower in 2018, supporting higher gold and silver prices.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

NG:  

 

Longer Term Update:

 

NG had many violent price moves since our last Weekly Post, and the start of 2018 seems to be no different.

 

Since our wave -a- high of 3.90 was made NG continues to work on a wave -b- corrective pattern that is still unfolding. We ultimately see it trading back to the 3.90 level to complete a long wave (iv) correction, but it appears that that journey will be length and complex.   

 

Since completing wave A at 15.74 in 2005, NG is dropping in a double 3 wave pattern as shown on the Monthly NG Chart. We are now in wave (v) of our second wave c, within that double 3 wave pattern. Our minimum target for the end of the second wave c is 1.61.

 

Upon completion of all of wave B, we expect a very sharp multi-year rally in wave C that should see NG exceed the 15.74 high, that was made in 2005. Heading back to 1.61.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.53.

 

GDX: 

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The GDX has moved sharply higher since our last Weekly Post!!

 

All of wave ii ended at the 21.27 low and we have now started to rally in wave iii. Within wave iii, we are probably getting close to the end of wave -i- of .iii., and upon its completion we should expect a wave -ii- correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. 

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low.

 

Longer term, our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!