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JUNE 8 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 714.97, although after that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high of 723.11, closing at 722.77!

 

Longer term to CDNX is now rallying in wave (i) of C. Within wave (i) of C, all of wave -i- ended at 1113.64 and all of wave -ii- at the 660.77 low. We are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1927.65.

 

Within wave (i) of -ii-, it looks like wave $i$ ended at 716.88 and wave $ii$ at 688.75. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which the following projected endpoints:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 779.54

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 835.65.

 

We are expecting higher prices in the days ahead as it looks like wave $iii$ is subdividing.                                                                                     

                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 32.63, closing at 32.53.

 

Wave B is complete at the 29.66 low, and we have started to rally higher again in wave i of C.

 

Within wave i, it looks like wave -i- ended at 31.66 and all of wave -ii- at 31.54.

 

We should now be rallying in an extending wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.66.

 

Within wave -iii-, all of wave *i* ended at 32.36 and wave *ii* at the 31.55 low, so we are now starting to rally higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 34.67.  

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 36.60.

 

We have graphically shown our expected path of all of wave -iii- on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Updates to have been completed, with noted dates for their updates.

 

Kinross (Updated May 12, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 30.41 in 1996, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 1.07;

b = 26.14;

c = 1.31;

d = 10.24;

e = 3.94, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 1.31 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 30.41.

 

ABX (Updated May 12, 2022):  

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 47.34 in 2008, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 5.69;

b = 31.01;

c = 17.19;

d = 26.07;

e = 20.04, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 17.19 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 47.34.

  

HUI (Updated May 12, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 519.61 in 2008, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 99.19;

b = 373.85;

c = 224.28;

d = 338.04;

e = 238.55, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 1.31 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 519.61.

 

XAU (Updated May 30, 2022):

 

Wave B ended at the 38.37 low in 2016 and we are now rallying in a long-term wave C. Within wave C , we completed wave i at 101.76 and all of a complex wave ii at 62.72. We are now rallying in wave iii, which that following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.236i = 331.24.

 

Within wave iii, we believe that wave (i) at 167.09 and all of wave (ii) at 119.77. We should now be starting to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 288.64.

 

We expect higher prices in the weeks ahead..   

 

SSR Mining (Updated May 13, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 45.58 in 2007, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 5.28;

b = 33.11;

c = 17.05;

d = 30.89;

e = 23.94, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 17.05 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 45.58.   

 

Note: In general, if all the above noted wave B’s ended at their suggested lows, then the projections for wave C will be either:

 

C = 1.618A;

C = 2.618A.

 

In either case the potential movement in these gold indices and gold stocks is massive and will surprise many people.                

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1858.10.

 

In the overnight session we moved a bit lower reaching a low of 1847.80.

 

We are now working on the assumption that our very large wave .iv. bullish triangle ended at the 1785.00 low. We are now in the initial stages of a very large thrust higher in wave .v. of -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.236-i- = 2531.10.

 

Within wave ^i^ of *i* of .v., we completed wave $i$ at 1869.10 and wave $ii$ at 1830.20. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1966.30.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 1830.20 to 1877.50 is impulsive looking and the drop from 1877.50 to 1838.90 is corrective looking, with our 78.6% retracement level being 1840.30.

 

If that observation is correct then after this correction ends, which could be at the 1838.90 low, we expect gold to move higher again. The other option that that our wave $ii$ correction has become more complex, and it is still underway, which indicates that gold could fall back to the 1830.20 low one more time, before all of wave $ii$ ends.  

 

We expect higher prices in the days ahead with next resistance at the 1868.00 level and then 1890.00/1895.00.

                      

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 22.30.

 

In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 21.90.

 

Wave ii is complete at the 20.42 low, and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial project endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618(i) = 49.98.

 

Within wave -i- of (i) of iii, we completed wave $i$ at the 22.48 and all of wave $ii$ at the 21.41 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which ash the fooling initial projected endpoint:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 24.74.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 21.41 to 22.52 was impulsive looking and the drop from 22.52 to 21.85 is corrective looking with our 61.8% retracement level being 21.83.

 

After this correction ends, which could be at the 21.85 low, we expect silver to move higher again.

 

We expect higher prices over the next couple of days with next resistance at 22.47/22.50, 23.34 and then 24.05.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822bond.png

  

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 2.957%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 3.020%.

 

The short-term direction of this market is unclear now, although we have now reached our minimum target of 3.004%. We will now see if this market starts to turn lower again.  

 

We still need to take closer look at this market on a longer-term basis from the 0.38% low and provide an updated count although we still think most of the current upside has now occurred.

 

Longer term we know that rates are going to moving substantially higher in the years ahead, but it will not be in a straight line.

                                                                                                                                                                                 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4164.86.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 12 points!

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (iii) which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3735.83.

 

Within wave (iii), we continue to believe that all of wave -i- ended at the 3858.87 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 4248.04;

61.8% = 4333.94.

 

Wave -ii- looks to have become an irregular type of correction as shown on our 120 min SP500 Chart. If this thinking is correct then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave .c., and within wave .c. it now appears that wave *iv* has become a bullish triangle that only need one more drop to become complete.

 

We appear to have complete 4 out of the 5 triangle legs with only another drop remaining to complete the pattern.

 

We cannot drop below the 4073.85 low for this triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After this wave *iv* bullish triangle ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave *v* to complete all of wave .c. and wave -ii-. Perhaps Friday’s US Inflation Report will provide the news for the thrust?

 

Expect the volatility to continue, and anyone long this market should consider exiting on this bear market rally.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Plan to short at 4310.00, using calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Plan to short at 4310.00, using calls as stops!

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 102.27. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 102.78, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 102.33!

 

The drop from 105.07 to the current low of 101.32 appears to be an INCOMPLETE impulsive sequence, which is suggesting that once this current corrective rally ends the USDX will drop one more time before the 101.65 low to complete an impulsive sequence that started at the 105.07 high.

 

This initial drop is currently labeled wave ^i^.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to still be working on a complex correction that started at the 101.32 low and may now be complete at the 102.85 high. After this correction ends, we should start to head lower again.

                                                                                                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 105.10.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 105.10!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 117.14. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 121.36!

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, with all of wave (i) ending at 130.50 high, and we now believe that wave (ii) has become more complex as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. Our retracement levels for all of wave (ii) are:

 

50% = 96.47;

61.8% = 88.43.

 

Within wave (ii), all of wave $a$ ended at 92.93 and we are now rallying higher in wave $b$. It looks like wave $b$ could reach or exceed the 130.50 high before it ends. After wave $b$ ends we expect a drop back to at least the wave $a$ low of 92.93 to complete aal of wave (ii).

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

No matter what now happens in the Ukraine/Russian war, millions of barrels on Russian oil have now disappeared from the world market that cannot easily be replaced, which will be very bullish for crude prices moving forward.

 

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97 and all of wave -ii- at the 22.22 low. We are now moving sharply higher in wave -iii-, which is now extending to our second projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 48.56.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii is (although it will likely need to be extended):                                                                                                                     

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

APR 18 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

CDNX moved sideways in Thursday’s trading session, although we closed marginally lower at 892.50!

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. is now complete at the 802.71 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to move sharply higher in wave -iii- of -iii-, as shown on our Daily CNDX Chart. Out first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1527.95.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are working on (i) and within wave (i), we should be working on wave $iii$, which has projected endpoints of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 914.22;

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ =

 

980.04.                                                                                                      

 

Next major resistance is 948.38.                                                                                                                        

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewap41822gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Thursday’s trading session reaching a high of 40.95, closing at 40.86!

 

All of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.33 low and longer term we have now rallied higher in wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.22.

 

Within wave *iii*, we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we are working on -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.59.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $iv$ ended at the 35.67 high and if that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $v$, which appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Within this ending diagonal triangle, it looks like wave !iii! is still underway. After wave !iii! ends we expect a wave !iv! drop that cannot fall below the wave !ii! low.

 

After wave !iv! ends we expect another rally in wave !v! to complete this ending diagonal triangle wave $v$ and all of wave -iii-. Diagonal triangles are like regular triangles… that like to expand.

 

The other option is that we are still working on an expanding wave $iv$ bullish triangle with wave !a! ending at 35.67 and are still rallying in a lengthy wave !b!. After wave !b! ends we should fall in wave !c! which cannot trade below the wave !a! low of 35.67.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated December 31st,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 27.74. We are now falling in an irregular type of wave -ii- correction which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.20;

61.8% = 18.41.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a large rally in wave -iii-. Within wave -ii-, wave $c$ appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle, which could be complete at the 17.27 low. After wave -ii- ends we will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii-.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 31st , 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated December 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Thursday’s day session reaching a low of 1962.70, although after that low was made, we moved higher, and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1997.10!

 

We are now thrusting sharply higher in wave .i. of -v-.

 

Within wave -v- we are working on wave .i., and within wave .i., it now looks like all of wave $v$ is complete at the 2078.80 high. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1915.90;

61.8% = 1877.50.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave .ii. is NOT complete at the 1893.20 low. It looks like within wave .ii., all of wave $a$ ended at 1895.20 and that the current rally is a complex wave $b$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1987.00;

61.8% = 2007.70.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for wave $b$ so we need to be on guard for its completion. After wave $b$ ends we expect another drop back to at least the wave $a$ low of 1893.20, in wave $c$ to complete all of wave .ii. 

 

Longer term, we still expect gold to move sharply higher with very big daily price swings, as we march to all time new highs.

                           

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Thursday’s day session reaching a low of 25.46.

 

In the overnight session we have blasted higher reaching a high of 26.46!

 

We are now rallying sharply higher in wave iii, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97!

 

Within wave iii, we are now rallying in wave -i- and within wave -i- we are rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 4.618$i$ = 31.54.

 

It looks like wave $iii$ is now subdividing. We have updated the location of where we think wave ^i^ ended to 27.50, and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave ^ii^ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 24.74;

61.8% = 24.09.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 24.05 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^. We will give this market another day or so before we provide our initial projections for the completion of wave ^iii^.

 

Next major resistance is 26.16.

 

We still expect much higher prices lie ahead, and still expect the daily trading ranges to continue to be large.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in Thursday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 2.884%!

 

It still looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3-wave irregular type correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low.

 

This wave *b* rally is now crazy stretched and should end very soon. After wave *b* ends we still expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%, to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.      

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in Thursday’s trading session reaching a low of 4390.77. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 15 points!

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (iii) which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3735.83.

 

The volatility should continue.  

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short using calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short using calls as stops.

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Thursday’s day session reaching a high of 100.77. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 100.48 level!

 

Our last retracement level for all of wave (ii) is:

 

78.6% = 100.79.

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level and if our current analysis is to remain valid, we need to turn down now.

 

We were stopped out of our short position on Thursday.

                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher again in Thursday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 108.00!

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, with all of wave (i) ending at 130.50 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.47;

61.8% = 88.43.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $a$ of (ii) ended at 93.53, wave $b$ at 116.64 and likely all of wave $c$ at the 92.93 low, to complete all of wave (ii). If that is the case, we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion at:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i)= 203.10.

 

Inflation in the world is just beginning!

 

No matter what now happens in the Ukraine/Russian war, millions of barrels on Russian oil have now disappeared from the world market that cannot easily be replaced, which will be very bullish for crude prices moving forward!

 

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97 and all of wave -ii- at the 22.22 low. We are now moving sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 38.50.

 

Next major resistance being the 34.56, which we are fast approaching.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:                                                                                                                     

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

FEB 20 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

Gold:

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 1905.00, closing at 1899.40!

                                                                          

All of wave -iii- ended at the 2089.20 high and, incredibly, our current preferred count is still suggesting that our lengthy wave -iv- bullish triangle is still underway.

 

Within that triangle it looks like wave .d. is still underway, but that may be complete at the 1905.00 high.

 

Wave .d. cannot rally above the wave .b. high of 1919.20 for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

If it does then one of our two alternate counts will be in play, as we would now be rallying sharply higher in wave -v-.  Ultimately, it’s important for all subs to remember we are LONG GOLD IN A BIG WAY… and trying to trade only the countertrends shorter term wave counts is a difficult proposition.

 

Assuming that all of wave .d. is complete or mostly complete at the 1905.00 high, then we should still expect another drop in wave .e. to complete all of wave -iv- bullish triangle.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

 

23.6% = 1871.60;

38.2% = 1737.00.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect a very sharp thrust higher wave -v-, which should take gold to all time new highs.

 

Our alternate counts still remain in play as follows:

 

Alternate Count 1, in red on our Weekly Gold Chart, is that all of wave -iv- ended at the 1675.90 low, and in this case we are now rallying in wave *i* of -v-.  

 

Alternate Count 2, in purple on our Weekly Gold Chart, would be that all of our wave -iv- bullish triangle has ended at the 1721.10 low.                       

 

Active Positions: Long and strong, with puts as stops!               

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was also higher this past week reaching a high of 24.11, closing at 23.99.  

                                                                  

We still believe that wave ii is NOT complete, although we are starting to think maybe it is at the second 21.41 low.

 

The potentially good news: Our alternate count we are suggesting that all of wave ii ended at the second 21.41 low and we have already started to rally higher in the initial stages of wave iii.

 

Our current count suggests that all of wave i ended at 29.91, and within wave ii, wave (a) ended at 21.81, wave (b) at 30.35, and we are now falling in an ending diagonal triangle wave (c) formation that has a minimum target of 21.41. Our retracement levels for all of wave ii are:

 

50% = 20.78;

61.8% = 18.62.

 

Within wave -v-, all of wave $a$ ended at 21.41 and all of wave $b$ at the 24.75 high. We are now falling in a subdividing wave $c$ to at least the 21.41 low, but more likely into our retracement zone for all of wave ii, before it ends. We do a projection for the end of wave $c$ as:

 

$c$ = $a$ = 20.67.   

 

Within wave $c$, wave ^i^ ended at 21.98 and all or most of wave ^ii^ at 24.11, and if that is the case then we should see silver start to drop again in wave ^iii^.                               

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

                                                             

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50 

 

Again, it’s very important for investors to get positioned for the big wave action rather trying avoid all the little subwaves down.

 

It is really all about the big C wave and likely target of around $86.50!

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

Active Positions: Long from 14.85, with puts as our stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

The bond is another very interesting market right now, and we’ll get to why that is in a moment.

                                                                                               

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was initially marginally higher this past week reaching a high of 2.065, although after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 1.918%, closing at 1.932%!

 

The multi-decade bear market in US interest is now over as it ended at the 0.398% low.

 

Over the next couple of decades our analysis suggests we are rallying back to the all-time in rates that we saw in the 1980’s!

 

This multi-decade rally should be impulsive and we are now working on our very first impulsive sequence.

 

It appears that wave (iii) is subdividing and within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at 1.765%. We are currently now falling in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%

 

We continue to believe that wave -ii- is still underway and subdividing with wave *a* ending at 1.128% and all of wave *b*, perhaps at the 2.065% high. Our internal wave count for all of wave *b* shows a double 3 wave correction pattern which we think is getting very close to completion. After wave *b* ends we still expect a another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.218%. 

 

We do have projection for the end of wave *b* as:

 

*b* = 1.618*a* = 2.159%

 

We are watching for a shorting opportunity early next week.  This is one small subwave count we want to play (with stoploss).  Here’s why:  We believe a crash phase of the stock market would see hug money move into bonds, pushing yields lower temporarily.

 

For those of you who want to play the bond action with ETFs rather than the “Big Boy” futures contracts the Captain uses, take a look at TLT-nyse (non-levered) and TMF (leveraged) to short rates and go long bond prices…

 

And TBF (non-levered) and TMV (leveraged) to play the major swing higher in rates and lower bond prices.

                                                         

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:                                                                                     

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude was initially higher again this past week reaching a high of 95.82, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 87.46, closing at 90.21.

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, which has an initial projection for its completion at :

 

iii =1.681i = 176.47!

 

Within wave iii, we are likely getting very close to completing wave (i).

 

We did have key weekly reversal lower last week, which might be signaling that all of wave (i) is complete at the 95.82 high.

 

After wave (i) ends we expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) rally. We will likely provide those retracement levels this week.

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77!

C= 1.618A = 244.78!

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was lower this past week reaching a low of 28.60, closing at 29.07!

 

We are still working on wave iii and continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 42.28.

 

Wave (iii) appears to be subdividing with wave -i- of (iii) ending at the 26.97 high and all of wave -ii- at 22.22.

 

Wave -iii- has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 38.50.

 

We expect higher prices to continue now, with our next resistance level at the 34.56 level.

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                            

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower this past week reaching low of 4327.22, closing at 4348.87!

 

It looks like our ending diagonal triangle formation ended a failure high at 4748.83, and wave V is now complete at the high.

 

We believe the SP500 is now heading into a multi-year bear market, probably the worst in the history of America, and we have broken our Armageddon Support Line.

 

Within this current drop we likely completed wave (i) at the 4222.62 low and likely all of wave (ii) at the 4588.92 high.

 

We should now be falling in wave (iii) and within wave (iii), wave -i- ended at 4364.84 and likely all of wave -ii- at 4489.55.

 

If that is the case we should now falling sharply lower in wave -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 4126.99.

 

Our initial project for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3737.51.

 

 

Active Positions: Heavily Short, with calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022usd.png

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally lower this past week reaching a low of 95.67, closing at 96.02!

 

Within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at 89.17. We are now rallying in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.57;

61.8% = 98.31.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at the 97.44 high and if that is the case then we are starting to fall sharply lower in wave (iii). A break of our major uptrend line now will confirm to us that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 97.44 high.

 

We are still expecting a rally off of that red trendline next week which we plan to use as an opportunity to short this market, risking to 97.45.  

 

Active Positions: Trying to short at 96.50, risking to 97.45.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was lower this past week reaching a low of 846.13, closing at 852.15!

 

Our wave -ii- of .iii. correction is now complete at the 847.92 low and we are now rallying higher in wave -iii- which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1573.16

 

Wave $i$ of -iii- ended at the 1025.77 high and we are now falling in wave $ii$. We have updated our internal count for wave $ii$ to suggest that it has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern that remains incomplete.

 

We should now be falling in our second wave (c). It continues to look like wave $ii$ is still not complete at the 802.71 low.

 

Our minimum multi-year long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56!

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold!

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was sharply higher again this past week reaching a high of 35.11, closing at 34.50!

 

We believe that wave *ii* is still underway as we work on our 3rd three wave corrective pattern. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- is:

 

50% = 30.98;

61.8% = 27.49.

 

It is starting to look like wave *ii* may be complete at the 28.33 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally in the initial stages of wave *iii*.

 

 IMPORTANT:

 

We are going to wait to see if gold moves above the 1919.20 high, before we move to this idea as our preferred count.

 

The short term picture within the GDX is bit unclear at the moment.

 

Our current projection for the end of 3 is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37!                                                         

 

We do have higher targets also!!

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!

 

Bitcoin: 

  

Weekly Bitcoin Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ewfeb2022bit.png

Long Term Update:

 

Bitcoin was lower this past week reaching low of 39497, closing at 39902!

 

All of wave 1 or A is now complete at the 64860 high. We are now falling in wave 2 or B which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 32430;

61.8% = 24777.

 

Within wave B or 2 all of wave (a) ended at the 28908 low and wave (b) is at the 68979 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (c), which should be heading back to at least the wave (a) low of 28908 to complete all of wave 2 or B.

 

Our 61.8% retracement level is lower at around 25000.

 

Wave 2 or B has become a flat correction.

 

The large rally in Bitcoin over the last couple of weeks may be suggesting that our current count, within wave (b) is not correct and that wave (b) maybe becoming a large and somewhat grotesque bearish triangle.

 

Within this bearish triangle, wave a ended at 68979 and wave b at 32991. If that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave c, which cannot trade above the wave a high of 68979. For now this will remain as our alternate count.

 

After wave 2 or B ends we expect a massive rally in wave 3 or C.  Investors who are not Crypto savvy can look at funds like GBTC, MSTR, BITW, and ETHE (and actual ETFs in Canada) to play the C wave monster!!   

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

may 18 xau update

XAU Chart Update From The Captain!!

Please click here: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821xau.png

Also, for you those of you who are fans of traditional flag and pennant patterns, please click here:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ewmay1821xau2.png Editor Stu adds a bull pennant to the chart, and these tend to fly a “half mast”… which is in sync with the Captain’s massive C wave upside forecast!

Have a golden day!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

JAN 7 WEEKEND POST

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE

 

 Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan718gold.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold should rally sharply in 2018!!!

 

Gold has traded sharply higher since our last Weekly Post…and this week we reached a high of weekly post 1327.20!

 

WE are now rallying in wave -iii-, and within wave ^-ii-, we should be getting close to the end of wave ^i^ of -iii-. Upon completion of wave ^i^ we should expect a wave ^ii^ correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70. 

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan718si.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Silver was also sharply higher with gold, since our last Weekly Post and we expect that trend to continue!

 

We are now rallying in wave ^i^ of .iii, as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart. We are probably getting close to the end of wave ^i^ and upon its completion we expect a wave ^ii^ correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. Silver should also move sharply higher in 2018.

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.

 

Crude:

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Weekly Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan718oil.png

 

Crude traded higher since our last Weekly Post reaching a high of 62.20, this past week. We should now be working on the final subdivisions of wave ^c^ of *b*. Upon completion of wave *b* we expect crude to move sharply lower for most of 2018, in wave *c*. We do have a ^c^ = ^a^ projection of 63.05.

 

The most important takeaway from the current Weekly Crude chart is that: “The rally from the wave *a* low of 39.19 is NOT impulsive, so we do not think that crude is going to rally in a new bull market, until we revisit the 39.19 low one more time.”

 

In the very long term, we are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low.

 

If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading, in the big wave counts picture, sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Suncor:

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ewsep1617su.png

 

Suncor was higher with crude since our last Weekly Posy, as we are waiting for confirmation that all of wave .b. is complete at the 38.39 high. Once wave .b. ends we expect one more drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Active Positions: Short crude with 63.00 call as the stop, and plan to go long in Suncor at 26.00.

 

S&P: 

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The S&P was sharply higher since our last Weekly Post. To repeat: As we and likely many others have been saying for quite some time this market is very overvalued and overstretched by almost every technical indicator. The top should be marked by a very violent move, perhaps an epic move, to the downside.

 

Active Positions: Very Short, with calls at various levels, as stops.

 

USDX:

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The USDX continued to move lower, since our last Weekly Post as we reached a low of 91.47, this past week.

 

We are now falling in wave ^v^ of *iii* and expect this market still has lots of downside left for this drop ends.  

 

We expect that the USDX should trade lower in 2018, supporting higher gold and silver prices.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

NG:  

 

Longer Term Update:

 

NG had many violent price moves since our last Weekly Post, and the start of 2018 seems to be no different.

 

Since our wave -a- high of 3.90 was made NG continues to work on a wave -b- corrective pattern that is still unfolding. We ultimately see it trading back to the 3.90 level to complete a long wave (iv) correction, but it appears that that journey will be length and complex.   

 

Since completing wave A at 15.74 in 2005, NG is dropping in a double 3 wave pattern as shown on the Monthly NG Chart. We are now in wave (v) of our second wave c, within that double 3 wave pattern. Our minimum target for the end of the second wave c is 1.61.

 

Upon completion of all of wave B, we expect a very sharp multi-year rally in wave C that should see NG exceed the 15.74 high, that was made in 2005. Heading back to 1.61.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.53.

 

GDX: 

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The GDX has moved sharply higher since our last Weekly Post!!

 

All of wave ii ended at the 21.27 low and we have now started to rally in wave iii. Within wave iii, we are probably getting close to the end of wave -i- of .iii., and upon its completion we should expect a wave -ii- correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. 

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low.

 

Longer term, our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!