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JUNE 8 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially lower in yesterday’s trading session reaching a low of 714.97, although after that low was made, we moved higher reaching a high of 723.11, closing at 722.77!

 

Longer term to CDNX is now rallying in wave (i) of C. Within wave (i) of C, all of wave -i- ended at 1113.64 and all of wave -ii- at the 660.77 low. We are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1927.65.

 

Within wave (i) of -ii-, it looks like wave $i$ ended at 716.88 and wave $ii$ at 688.75. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which the following projected endpoints:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 779.54

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 835.65.

 

We are expecting higher prices in the days ahead as it looks like wave $iii$ is subdividing.                                                                                     

                                                                                                      

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 32.63, closing at 32.53.

 

Wave B is complete at the 29.66 low, and we have started to rally higher again in wave i of C.

 

Within wave i, it looks like wave -i- ended at 31.66 and all of wave -ii- at 31.54.

 

We should now be rallying in an extending wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 34.66.

 

Within wave -iii-, all of wave *i* ended at 32.36 and wave *ii* at the 31.55 low, so we are now starting to rally higher in wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 34.67.  

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 36.60.

 

We have graphically shown our expected path of all of wave -iii- on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

Updates to have been completed, with noted dates for their updates.

 

Kinross (Updated May 12, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 30.41 in 1996, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 1.07;

b = 26.14;

c = 1.31;

d = 10.24;

e = 3.94, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 1.31 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 30.41.

 

ABX (Updated May 12, 2022):  

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 47.34 in 2008, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 5.69;

b = 31.01;

c = 17.19;

d = 26.07;

e = 20.04, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 17.19 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 47.34.

  

HUI (Updated May 12, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 519.61 in 2008, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 99.19;

b = 373.85;

c = 224.28;

d = 338.04;

e = 238.55, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 1.31 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 519.61.

 

XAU (Updated May 30, 2022):

 

Wave B ended at the 38.37 low in 2016 and we are now rallying in a long-term wave C. Within wave C , we completed wave i at 101.76 and all of a complex wave ii at 62.72. We are now rallying in wave iii, which that following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.236i = 331.24.

 

Within wave iii, we believe that wave (i) at 167.09 and all of wave (ii) at 119.77. We should now be starting to rally higher in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 288.64.

 

We expect higher prices in the weeks ahead..   

 

SSR Mining (Updated May 13, 2022):

 

We have made a major revision to our long-term analysis. Wave A ended at 45.58 in 2007, and since that high was made we have been working on a bullish wave B triangle formation that is likely nearing completion. Within our wave B bullish triangle, we have the following:

 

a = 5.28;

b = 33.11;

c = 17.05;

d = 30.89;

e = 23.94, if complete, and we cannot fall below the wave c low of 17.05 for this triangle formation to remain valid, otherwise it will extend and expand.

 

We have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave e, at the current lows, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave B and the start of a multiple year wave C thrust higher. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave C, when we believe that all of wave B is complete, but the minimum target will be the wave A high of 45.58.   

 

Note: In general, if all the above noted wave B’s ended at their suggested lows, then the projections for wave C will be either:

 

C = 1.618A;

C = 2.618A.

 

In either case the potential movement in these gold indices and gold stocks is massive and will surprise many people.                

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1858.10.

 

In the overnight session we moved a bit lower reaching a low of 1847.80.

 

We are now working on the assumption that our very large wave .iv. bullish triangle ended at the 1785.00 low. We are now in the initial stages of a very large thrust higher in wave .v. of -iii-, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.236-i- = 2531.10.

 

Within wave ^i^ of *i* of .v., we completed wave $i$ at 1869.10 and wave $ii$ at 1830.20. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 1966.30.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 1830.20 to 1877.50 is impulsive looking and the drop from 1877.50 to 1838.90 is corrective looking, with our 78.6% retracement level being 1840.30.

 

If that observation is correct then after this correction ends, which could be at the 1838.90 low, we expect gold to move higher again. The other option that that our wave $ii$ correction has become more complex, and it is still underway, which indicates that gold could fall back to the 1830.20 low one more time, before all of wave $ii$ ends.  

 

We expect higher prices in the days ahead with next resistance at the 1868.00 level and then 1890.00/1895.00.

                      

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 22.30.

 

In the overnight session we moved lower reaching a low of 21.90.

 

Wave ii is complete at the 20.42 low, and we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave iii, which has the following initial project endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618(i) = 49.98.

 

Within wave -i- of (i) of iii, we completed wave $i$ at the 22.48 and all of wave $ii$ at the 21.41 low. If that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $iii$, which ash the fooling initial projected endpoint:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 24.74.

 

On the Intraday Chart the rally from 21.41 to 22.52 was impulsive looking and the drop from 22.52 to 21.85 is corrective looking with our 61.8% retracement level being 21.83.

 

After this correction ends, which could be at the 21.85 low, we expect silver to move higher again.

 

We expect higher prices over the next couple of days with next resistance at 22.47/22.50, 23.34 and then 24.05.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822bond.png

  

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 2.957%.

 

In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 3.020%.

 

The short-term direction of this market is unclear now, although we have now reached our minimum target of 3.004%. We will now see if this market starts to turn lower again.  

 

We still need to take closer look at this market on a longer-term basis from the 0.38% low and provide an updated count although we still think most of the current upside has now occurred.

 

Longer term we know that rates are going to moving substantially higher in the years ahead, but it will not be in a straight line.

                                                                                                                                                                                 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 4164.86.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 12 points!

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (iii) which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3735.83.

 

Within wave (iii), we continue to believe that all of wave -i- ended at the 3858.87 low and if that is the case then we are now rallying higher in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 4248.04;

61.8% = 4333.94.

 

Wave -ii- looks to have become an irregular type of correction as shown on our 120 min SP500 Chart. If this thinking is correct then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave .c., and within wave .c. it now appears that wave *iv* has become a bullish triangle that only need one more drop to become complete.

 

We appear to have complete 4 out of the 5 triangle legs with only another drop remaining to complete the pattern.

 

We cannot drop below the 4073.85 low for this triangle formation to remain valid.

 

After this wave *iv* bullish triangle ends we expect a sharp thrust higher in wave *v* to complete all of wave .c. and wave -ii-. Perhaps Friday’s US Inflation Report will provide the news for the thrust?

 

Expect the volatility to continue, and anyone long this market should consider exiting on this bear market rally.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Plan to short at 4310.00, using calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Plan to short at 4310.00, using calls as stops!

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 102.27. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 102.78, but after that high was made we moved lower reaching a low of 102.33!

 

The drop from 105.07 to the current low of 101.32 appears to be an INCOMPLETE impulsive sequence, which is suggesting that once this current corrective rally ends the USDX will drop one more time before the 101.65 low to complete an impulsive sequence that started at the 105.07 high.

 

This initial drop is currently labeled wave ^i^.

 

On the Intraday Chart we appear to still be working on a complex correction that started at the 101.32 low and may now be complete at the 102.85 high. After this correction ends, we should start to head lower again.

                                                                                                                                                                                        

Trading Recommendation: Short risking to 105.10.

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 105.10!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ewjun822oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 117.14. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 121.36!

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, with all of wave (i) ending at 130.50 high, and we now believe that wave (ii) has become more complex as shown on our Daily Crude Chart. Our retracement levels for all of wave (ii) are:

 

50% = 96.47;

61.8% = 88.43.

 

Within wave (ii), all of wave $a$ ended at 92.93 and we are now rallying higher in wave $b$. It looks like wave $b$ could reach or exceed the 130.50 high before it ends. After wave $b$ ends we expect a drop back to at least the wave $a$ low of 92.93 to complete aal of wave (ii).

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave (iii).

 

No matter what now happens in the Ukraine/Russian war, millions of barrels on Russian oil have now disappeared from the world market that cannot easily be replaced, which will be very bullish for crude prices moving forward.

 

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97 and all of wave -ii- at the 22.22 low. We are now moving sharply higher in wave -iii-, which is now extending to our second projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 48.56.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii is (although it will likely need to be extended):                                                                                                                     

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew

 

APR 18 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Please click here for the Bob Balan Ewave Basics Handbook… which the Captain highly recommends:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ewave-Basics.pdf

 

Don’t try to learn Ewave all in one day.  Focus on when the Captain is buying or selling, and the big wave counts.  

From there, add more detail to your study.

 

If any sub needs one-on-one help with the wave counts, just some handholding during market dips, or both, shoot us an Email we’ll work out a phone talk time slot.  Can buy a one-time slot or multi… Thanks, Captain & Crew 

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822cdnx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

CDNX moved sideways in Thursday’s trading session, although we closed marginally lower at 892.50!

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave -ii- of .iii. is now complete at the 802.71 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to move sharply higher in wave -iii- of -iii-, as shown on our Daily CNDX Chart. Out first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 1527.95.

 

Within wave -iii-, we are working on (i) and within wave (i), we should be working on wave $iii$, which has projected endpoints of:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 914.22;

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ =

 

980.04.                                                                                                      

 

Next major resistance is 948.38.                                                                                                                        

 

Our initial projected endpoint for the larger wave -iii- is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long-term hold.                   

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ and key juniors on the CDNX, as a long-term hold!  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewap41822gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Thursday’s trading session reaching a high of 40.95, closing at 40.86!

 

All of wave *ii* is complete at the 28.33 low and longer term we have now rallied higher in wave *iii*. Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 76.22.

 

Within wave *iii*, we are working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we are working on -iii- which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 41.59.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $iv$ ended at the 35.67 high and if that is the case then we are now rallying in wave $v$, which appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle formation.

 

Within this ending diagonal triangle, it looks like wave !iii! is still underway. After wave !iii! ends we expect a wave !iv! drop that cannot fall below the wave !ii! low.

 

After wave !iv! ends we expect another rally in wave !v! to complete this ending diagonal triangle wave $v$ and all of wave -iii-. Diagonal triangles are like regular triangles… that like to expand.

 

The other option is that we are still working on an expanding wave $iv$ bullish triangle with wave !a! ending at 35.67 and are still rallying in a lengthy wave !b!. After wave !b! ends we should fall in wave !c! which cannot trade below the wave !a! low of 35.67.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

-3- = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

Kinross(Updated September 02nd, 2021):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has an updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and appear to still be working on wave .ii, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 6.48;

61.8% = 5.59.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave .ii. and the start of a sharp rally in wave .iii..

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Barrick (Updated December 31st,2021):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also, and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 27.74. We are now falling in an irregular type of wave -ii- correction which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 20.20;

61.8% = 18.41.

 

We have now reached our 61.8% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii- and the start of a large rally in wave -iii-. Within wave -ii-, wave $c$ appears to have become an ending diagonal triangle, which could be complete at the 17.27 low. After wave -ii- ends we will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii-.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends, we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 31st , 2021): We continue to rally in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following updated projected endpoint:

 

iii = 4.25i=644.35.

 

Within wave iii, we are still working on aa complex wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 258.18;

61.8% = 230.88.

 

After wave (ii) ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave (iii), when we think all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

XAU (Updated December 31st, 2021): We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we now think that all wave -iii- ended at the 165.36 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave -iv- which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6% = 141.24;

38.2% = 125.15.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another sharp rally higher in wave -v-, which is project to reach the 226.55 level to complete all of wave (iii).                         

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in Thursday’s day session reaching a low of 1962.70, although after that low was made, we moved higher, and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1997.10!

 

We are now thrusting sharply higher in wave .i. of -v-.

 

Within wave -v- we are working on wave .i., and within wave .i., it now looks like all of wave $v$ is complete at the 2078.80 high. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1915.90;

61.8% = 1877.50.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave .ii. is NOT complete at the 1893.20 low. It looks like within wave .ii., all of wave $a$ ended at 1895.20 and that the current rally is a complex wave $b$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 1987.00;

61.8% = 2007.70.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone for wave $b$ so we need to be on guard for its completion. After wave $b$ ends we expect another drop back to at least the wave $a$ low of 1893.20, in wave $c$ to complete all of wave .ii. 

 

Longer term, we still expect gold to move sharply higher with very big daily price swings, as we march to all time new highs.

                           

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.  

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

                                                                                                                      

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in Thursday’s day session reaching a low of 25.46.

 

In the overnight session we have blasted higher reaching a high of 26.46!

 

We are now rallying sharply higher in wave iii, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

iii = 1.618i = 50.97!

 

Within wave iii, we are now rallying in wave -i- and within wave -i- we are rallying in wave $iii$, which has an initial projected endpoint of:

 

$iii$ = 4.618$i$ = 31.54.

 

It looks like wave $iii$ is now subdividing. We have updated the location of where we think wave ^i^ ended to 27.50, and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave ^ii^ which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 24.74;

61.8% = 24.09.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 24.05 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^. We will give this market another day or so before we provide our initial projections for the completion of wave ^iii^.

 

Next major resistance is 26.16.

 

We still expect much higher prices lie ahead, and still expect the daily trading ranges to continue to be large.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop!                                                                                                                                             

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was sharply higher in Thursday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 2.884%!

 

It still looks like wave -ii- is becoming a 3-wave irregular type correction pattern with all of wave *a* of -ii- ending at the 1.128% low.

 

This wave *b* rally is now crazy stretched and should end very soon. After wave *b* ends we still expect another drop in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 1.128%, to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50% = 1.130%

61.8% = 0.99%.      

                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                                                    

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

                                                              

The SP500 was lower in Thursday’s trading session reaching a low of 4390.77. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down by about 15 points!

 

Wave v is complete at the 4748.87 high as a failure high. We have now started a multi-decade correction. We will assume that the first drop in this correction will be five (5) waves and so far, wave (i) ended at the 4222.62 and all of wave (ii) at the 4637.30 high.

 

We are now falling in wave (iii) which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3735.83.

 

The volatility should continue.  

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Trading Recommendation: Short using calls as stops.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Short using calls as stops.

 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Thursday’s day session reaching a high of 100.77. In the overnight session we have moved sideways currently trading at the 100.48 level!

 

Our last retracement level for all of wave (ii) is:

 

78.6% = 100.79.

 

We have now reached our 78.6% retracement level and if our current analysis is to remain valid, we need to turn down now.

 

We were stopped out of our short position on Thursday.

                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

                                                                                                                     

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ewapr1822oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher again in Thursday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 108.00!

 

We are now rallying in wave iii, and within wave iii, with all of wave (i) ending at 130.50 high. We are now falling in wave (ii) which has the following retracement levels:

 

50% = 96.47;

61.8% = 88.43.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $a$ of (ii) ended at 93.53, wave $b$ at 116.64 and likely all of wave $c$ at the 92.93 low, to complete all of wave (ii). If that is the case, we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion at:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i)= 203.10.

 

Inflation in the world is just beginning!

 

No matter what now happens in the Ukraine/Russian war, millions of barrels on Russian oil have now disappeared from the world market that cannot easily be replaced, which will be very bullish for crude prices moving forward!

 

Our initial projection for the completion of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 176.47.

 

Suncor: Wave iii is subdividing and within wave iii, all of wave (i) ended at the 25.73 high, and all of wave (ii) at the 16.91 low. We should now be rallying in wave (iii), which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 41.28.

 

It also looks like wave (iii) is subdividing with wave -i- ending at 26.97 and all of wave -ii- at the 22.22 low. We are now moving sharply higher in wave -iii-, which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 38.50.

 

Next major resistance being the 34.56, which we are fast approaching.

 

Our current projection for the completion of all of wave iii to:                                                                                                                     

 

iii = 2.618i = 42.40

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew